Throughout the season, we're checking in on which big NBA topics are real or not.
In this edition: Is James Harden head and shoulders above greats like LeBron James and Stephen Curry as an offensive player? And are the Rockets actually the West's best team?
Buy or sell: James Harden is the best offensive player in the NBA ... and it's not close
Not only is Harden leading the NBA at 33.3 points per game -- which would be by far the highest PPG average since Kobe Bryant scored 35.4 points per game in 2005-06 -- but he's carrying a historically heavy offensive load for his team. Harden is on pace for the third-highest usage percentage in NBA history, just behind 2005-06 Kobe Bryant and just ahead of 1986-87 Michael Jordan. (Russell Westbrook holds the single-season record from two years ago.)
Harden's effectiveness as a scorer and playmaker stems from his ability to create a high volume of high-efficiency shots for himself off the dribble, either from behind the arc or at the rim. Harden accomplishes much of his playmaking off the on-ball pick out top, which warps opposing defenses and forces them to make an untenable decision. If they don't trap Harden, he can use the pick to get to the rim or set up a 3-pointer for himself. If they do trap him, that leads to either an open dive to the rim for the pick-setter (often Clint Capela) or a corner trey for a wide-open spot up shooter.
While it is impressive that Harden is making almost 39 percent of his 11.9 3-point attempts per game, the most amazing aspect is that Harden is assisted on only 13.2 percent of those 3-point attempts, according to Basketball Reference. Compare Harden and his 4.6 3-point makes per game to Damian Lillard's 3.1 makes per game on 39 percent 3-point shooting, but with 51.7 percent of them assisted, or even Curry's 4.9 3s on 45 percent shooting, with 66.9 percent of them assisted, and it becomes clear that Harden's 3-point shooting has been uniquely valuable this season, even among the other greats.
Similarly, Harden's best-of-the-best ability to drive to score at the rim or at the free-throw line creates incredible value. According to Second Spectrum, Harden is has produced 1.107 points per chance on 603 drives. (That gives him the third-most drives behind DeMar DeRozan and Jrue Holiday.) In terms of points created in those situations, Harden is right there with Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.129 points per chance, 455 drives) and James (1.116 points per chance, 415 drives) but at higher volume.
Harden has led the NBA in both free throws attempted and free throws made for five straight seasons, while shooting at about an 85 percent clip. These free throw components, both the volume and the accuracy, ultimately separate Harden even from Antetokounmpo and James when he goes to the rim.
Of course, it's not just about Harden's scoring, but about what he does for the Rockets. According to Second Spectrum, Harden has been the ball handler for 1,266 pick and roll/pop plays (he has the third-highest volume in NBA, behind Kemba Walker and D'Angelo Russell), and has generated 0.991 points/chance in those situations. Harden is able to consistently create a great shot for the team, including himself, as his points-per-chance surpass what Curry (0.954 pts/chance, 560 picks), James (0.972 pts/chance, 836 picks), Kevin Durant (0.960 pts/chance) and Russell Westbrook (0.877 pts/chance, 692 picks) have been able to generate for their teams even at lower volumes.
Harden combines extreme volume, extreme efficiency and elite playmaking for himself and others in ways that show up on the scoreboard and in advanced stats, including plus-minus stats that capture what his team does with him on and off the floor. Harden led the NBA in Offensive Real Plus-Minus (ORPM) last season with a score of 6.69 that was just ahead of the ratings posted by Curry (6.59), James (5.64) and Paul (5.36). This season, Harden is lapping the field in ORPM, with a score of 7.67 that far surpasses Kyrie Irving (5.33), Damian Lillard (5.13) or Curry (4.77).
Ultimately, I buy that James Harden currently is by far the best offensive player in the NBA.
Buy or sell: The Rockets are the best team in the Western Conference
Coming into this season, I was one of two ESPN NBA writers to predict that the Rockets would win the Western Conference. After the Rockets' very slow start, I was on a bit of an island as I maintained that they were still the team the Warriors most need to worry about out West.
Many attributed the Rockets' rugged first couple of months to the loss of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, and the subsequent effect on their defense. While the team defense has clearly struggled this season, I argue that's been a symptom of a bigger problem and not the problem itself.
The root problem was that the Rockets hadn't played to their team identity: an oppressive offense that scores with an inevitability that can break down opponents. Because in recent seasons the offense was so dominant while built around one or two players carrying the majority of the load, other players -- Ariza, Mbah a Moute, P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela -- could focus more of their energy on defense.
This was especially true last season, when Paul joined as a heavy usage centerpiece who allowed Harden to share the creation and scoring duties and made life easier for all involved while maintaining similar offensive efficiency (114.7 points per 100 possessions, first in the NBA). This opened things up for more team defensive effort (including from Harden) than we'd ever seen, and a 106.1 Defensive Rating (sixth in the league).
This season, Paul has been plagued with injuries and a suspension that have limited his contributions, while the Rockets tried to work another high usage player into the rotation when Carmelo Anthony was active. The overall result was a less efficient offensive unit that was nonetheless putting more energy into that end because it couldn't rely on Harden and Paul exclusively, to the detriment of the defense, which ranked 26th through Dec. 10. The game was harder than it needed to be on both ends of the court.
Harden's incredible level of play during the past 11 games has helped the Rockets to find their team identity, and the team is playing at a similar level as in the 2016-17 season. The silver lining to CP3's absence is that the team has been simplified to what it was before his arrival. Everything is running through Harden on practically every possession. Harden's ability to fill that role and let everyone play off him again has let the rest of the team fit back into their "life is easy" roles. I mean, just look at the usage stats cited above -- Harden is carrying a load that only peak Kobe, peak Jordan and Russell Westbrook have carried before.
This level of usage would be too great for even Harden to maintain at this efficiency for the rest of the season and playoffs. But if Paul takes this opportunity to get fully healthy, he should be able to finish the season relatively fresh and share the load as he did last postseason before his untimely hamstring injury.
The Rockets are only three games behind the Warriors and 3½ games out of first in the Western Conference. And if Paul returns at the level that he displayed last season, which I expect, then I still buy that the Rockets are the best team in the Western Conference and might even finish the regular season as the top seed.