What's next for the New Orleans Pelicans after firing GM Dell Demps on Friday?
The answer, as we all know, is likely an Anthony Davis trade this summer. But that should only be the first step as the Pelicans remake their roster with an eye toward producing the "sustainable winning" ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Friday that owner Gayle Benson has as a goal.
If I were advising New Orleans on the next steps toward rebuilding the roster for a post-AD future, here's what I would recommend.
1. Focus on young players and draft picks in a Davis trade package
There's no particular reason to believe Demps was thinking differently to the extent the Pelicans seriously considered trading Davis before last week's trade deadline. (It's also unclear, given the involvement of Benson and executive vice president of basketball operations Mickey Loomis, just how much control Demps had over those conversations.)
We do know, however, that when Demps had wider latitude to trade a superstar nearing the end of his contract (Chris Paul), the original three-team deal involving the Houston Rockets and L.A. Lakers focused more on veteran talent. Of the four players New Orleans was to get before the deal was vetoed by then-NBA commissioner David Stern, acting in the role of ownership, merely point guard Goran Dragic was on his first NBA contract.
It was only after Stern directed Demps to get more young talent and draft picks in return that he agreed to the final Paul trade with the L.A. Clippers, which netted two players on rookie contracts (guard Eric Gordon and forward Al-Farouq Aminu) as well as a future first-round pick (used on Austin Rivers). Even after that, Demps repeatedly favored proven veterans over draft picks.
Remarkably, Davis was the only first-round pick during Demps' tenure to play even three full seasons for the team. While the Pelicans got good value for some of those picks, adding veterans DeMarcus Cousins, Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic, the net result was a roster devoid of cost-controlled young talent. That made it difficult for New Orleans to build depth.
The Davis trade offers the Pelicans an opportunity to reset the roster. The Lakers' offer for Davis, which New Orleans never appeared to seriously consider, included five players on their rookie contracts. And yet the Boston Celtics still should be able to beat that offer if they include forward Jayson Tatum, who has two years left on his rookie deal for a combined $17.7 million.
I wouldn't advise the Pelicans to worry too much about cap relief. From their standpoint, paying Solomon Hill $13 million next season is not a big deal. Though New Orleans can and should use cap space to improve the roster, there are probably better ways to do so than by offloading Hill as part of a Davis trade. Instead, I'd ask for more draft picks to not include Hill.
2. Look to trade Jrue Holiday
I'm sympathetic to the arguments for keeping Holiday, who has been one of the NBA's best shooting guards over the last two seasons and might be the only superlative player on the roster after a Davis trade, depending on the return. Nonetheless, I think this summer is the right time to move Holiday.
For one, he should be near the peak of his trade value. Holiday's age-28 season has been the finest of his career. In part because of the way I now determine replacement level by position, Holiday's 8.9 WARP (wins above replacement player) as of the All-Star break are already a career high. Given his skill set, rapid decline is unlikely, but Holiday is more likely than not to perform worse in 2019-20. It's also possible, though Holiday has missed just three games due to injury the last three seasons, we could see a recurrence of the stress injuries that limited him to 74 games during his first two years with the Pelicans.
Additionally, Holiday's 2021-22 player option will loom larger the closer it gets. The option will either allow Holiday to hit free agency again, meaning fewer years under contract with a new team, or be picked up because he is no longer worth nearly $27 million at age 31. For now, a Holiday trade could reasonably net a couple of first-round picks or young prospects and expiring contracts.
Lastly, it's possible Holiday eventually requests a trade of his own. He told reporters last month, after Davis' trade request, that "(Davis is) like 90 percent of the reason that I stayed" as a coveted free agent in the summer of 2017, and ESPN's Zach Lowe reported subsequently that Holiday wants to be in a place where he can compete for the postseason. Though a Holiday trade request would not play out as publicly as the Davis fiasco (or "dumpster fire," to borrow the description New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry used Thursday night), getting out in front of one would be wise.
3. Use cap space to sign low-cost reclamation projects
To Demps' credit, this would mean continuing a process he started. Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton were strong buy-low pickups last summer, and though injury has marred Payton's season, Randle has been monstrously productive while making $8.6 million this season.
The downside of the Pelicans' cap limitations -- related to their lack of rookie contracts -- is both players are potentially on one-year contracts (Randle has a 2019-20 player option), meaning New Orleans will get only so much benefit from Randle's campaign. He'll either sign a larger deal this summer or leave as an unrestricted free agent. Ideally, the Pelicans would have paid a bit more to lock in Randle (or someone similar) to a contract with more potential upside.
Forward Stanley Johnson, acquired from the Detroit Pistons at the trade deadline as part of the return for Mirotic, could be a candidate for a similar type of deal this summer. In the event New Orleans loaded up on draft picks via Davis and Holiday trades, adding them by taking on bad salary would probably not make quite as much sense as adding veterans who can help the team remain competitive now while also building toward a sustainable future.