The deal
Magic get: Markelle Fultz
76ers get: Jonathon Simmons, a first-round pick (via OKC) and a second-round pick
Get more trade grades for every deal here
Orlando Magic: C
The Magic have long been an obvious destination for Fultz when and if the Sixers decided to move on from the No. 1 overall pick. Orlando hasn't had a long-term option at point guard since dealing Elfrid Payton at last year's deadline (your mileage may vary whether Payton counted) and offers Fultz a low-pressure opportunity to return to the court when he's ready after dealing with what was diagnosed as thoracic outlet syndrome.
It's probably more difficult to determine Fultz's value than for any other player in the league. That's how great the chasm between the potential he showed in his lone season at the University of Washington and his ineffective NBA performance so far in brief appearances for Philadelphia.
Whether the issue is indeed physical, mental or some combination thereof, Fultz has shot 28 percent on attempts beyond three feet in the NBA according to Basketball-Reference.com. This season's slightly improved 30 percent mark on such attempts is 13th-worst among the 298 players with at least 100 attempts.
Though it's possible to be an effective perimeter player while shooting so poorly -- Russell Westbrook is one of the 12 players shooting worse than Fultz -- you'd better be (like Westbrook) an incredible athlete who makes up for it elsewhere. Fultz has yet to clear that bar, in part because his inability to shoot has made it difficult to create for teammates.
I'm usually reluctant to engage in this kind of binary thinking, but it really seems like there are two paths for Fultz with relatively little room in between: either he rediscovers an outside shot and returns to the kind of elite prospect we once thought him or he continues to play ineffectively without a jumper. Orlando had to weigh those two possibilities in determining how to value Fultz in trade.
The Magic gave up a little more than I would have. As Orlando's GM in the Dunc'd On Basketball NBA podcast mock offseason, I offered Philadelphia the more valuable Terrence Ross plus the more middling Brooklyn second-round pick the Magic own. While the Oklahoma City first-rounder Orlando is sending back only conveys if it's in the bottom 10 picks of the first round in 2020, this year's results suggest the Thunder will probably convey it rather than second-round picks in 2022 and 2023. And Cleveland's second-round pick this season will almost certainly be one of the top four picks in the round, making it a valuable one.
Given their crying need for a perimeter star, I understand the Magic's willingness to bet on Fultz's upside. Here's hoping, for Fultz's sake and their own, that they've guessed right.
Philadelphia 76ers: B+
How's this for irony: Remember that group of 12 players (noted above) shooting worse than Fultz beyond three feet this year? Simmons, hitting 28 percent, is one of them.
That's somewhat out of line with Simmons' track record (he's a 35 percent career shooter beyond three feet, including 38 percent last season) but still a concern if the 76ers see him as a rotation player. Never much of a 3-point shooter, Simmons has struggled badly from midrange this year and been one of the league's most inefficient scorers with an ugly .445 true shooting percentage.
Much more so than Simmons, the real value for Philadelphia in this trade is the picks, which help replenish the four traded to the LA Clippers earlier this week. The Sixers will hope to get a 2020 first-rounder from Oklahoma City. They're likely out their own first-round pick in the same year (lottery protected) due to that deal.
Obviously, that's selling very low on a player the 76ers gave up the No. 3 pick (used on Jayson Tatum) and Sacramento's 2019 first-round pick to get the chance to draft. Still, I think it's possible that Fultz's value could have decreased as his prospect sheen got further removed and he continued to struggle with either his health or his shooting. A return in Philadelphia never seemed like a good idea given all the scrutiny, and this way Orlando gets the possibility of Fultz taking the court this season plus a full offseason to work with him.
This particular deal also gives the Sixers possible salary relief this summer. Just $1 million of Simmons' $5.7 million salary is guaranteed, giving Philadelphia the option of moving on and having more flexibility with regards to the luxury tax if both Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris re-sign as free agents. Alternatively, if one of them leaves, the 76ers will now have more cap space to use on a replacement.