The deal
Mavericks get: Kristaps Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke and Courtney Lee
Knicks get: Dennis Smith Jr., DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews and two future first-round picks
Get more trade grades for every deal here
New York Knicks: B
This is one of the most fascinating trades in recent NBA memory, with perhaps only one good comparison: the Los Angeles Lakers agreeing to trade D'Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov to the Brooklyn Nets just before the 2017 NBA draft in exchange for Brook Lopez and the No. 27 pick in that year's draft (eventually Kyle Kuzma).
Like that trade, this one involves a team surrendering one of its best trade chips in order to shed salary, while also picking up useful pieces in return. On his own, giving up Porzingis would surely be too much in exchange for moving the $37 million remaining on Hardaway's contract after this season and the $12.8 million Lee was scheduled to make in 2019-20. Add in Smith and draft picks, and I believe the risk in this trade tilts in their favor.
Naturally, New York wouldn't make a deal like this without confidence in the organization's chances of landing at least one, and possibly two, marquee free agents. Shedding not only the $31 million owed to Hardaway and Lee but also Porzingis' $17.1 million cap hold gives the Knicks upward of $70 million in cap space this summer. The final number will depend on where New York's draft pick lands as well as the decision on Allonzo Trier's $3.6 million team option, but the Knicks should have the ability to sign both a player with 10-plus years of experience (like Kevin Durant) and one with five to nine years of experience (like Kyrie Irving) to max contracts.
Alternatively, it is possible this trade could be the precursor to a run at Anthony Davis this summer. Including Porzingis in a Davis offer after the deadline would have been difficult if not impossible because he would have had to agree to a sign-and-trade as a restricted free agent. Even now, the threat of Porzingis accepting his qualifying offer and becoming an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2020 might have scared off the New Orleans Pelicans from considering him a valuable piece of a deal.
If the Pelicans are interested in Smith, he could be part of a Davis offer this summer. So too could the first-round picks New York got in this deal. Ultimately, the Knicks probably need to land the No. 1 overall pick via this year's lottery to offer a realistic package for Davis.
Whatever direction New York takes, Smith is a useful piece to add because of his potential and his modest $4.5 million salary for 2019-20. Some 19 months after a front office led by Phil Jackson passed on Smith in favor of drafting Frank Ntilikina with the No. 8 pick in 2017, the Knicks now have both players, whose skill sets could be complementary given Ntilikina has frequently played off the ball during his first two NBA seasons.
Fittingly, Russell was my comparison for Smith's potential when I assessed his trade value earlier this month. While it might take a couple of seasons for Smith to become a quality point guard -- an issue if New York shifts into win-now mode by adding veteran stars this summer -- he remains a promising prospect whose value could be rehabilitated with the Knicks. We've seen former lottery picks Burke and Emmanuel Mudiay put up better numbers in New York's offense than their previous stops, and if Smith can do the same, he might become a more attractive trade chip if the Knicks decide to move in a different direction.
Undoubtedly, this trade is a huge gamble for New York. If the Knicks strike out in free agency and are unlucky in the lottery, the team could be left starless after dealing Porzingis. Nonetheless, if the Knicks are right to be confident in their chances in free agency, I think this was a good way for them to clear the necessary cap space.
Dallas Mavericks: C-
Make no mistake, this move is a gamble for the Mavericks too, though of a different sort. They're betting that Porzingis will get back to full strength after last year's ACL injury and stay healthy -- as well as re-sign in Dallas for the long term.
Forgoing this summer's free agency makes sense for the Mavericks, who haven't gotten much buzz as a destination for stars despite Luka Doncic's promising rookie season. Assuming Harrison Barnes picks up his $25.1 million player option, Dallas will be just about capped out this summer after adding Hardaway, Lee and Porzingis' cap hold. And that's fine.
The Mavericks should be competitive next season with a healthy Porzingis while looking toward either the summer of 2020 (when Barnes and Lee become free agents) or 2021 (when Hardaway's contract expires) for a big splash in free agency. Doncic's rookie deal, which won't expire until after he makes a paltry $10.2 million in the 2021-22 season, gives Dallas the luxury of patience to strike. And Hardaway is hardly dead salary. He'll be an important part of the team's wing rotation the next two seasons.
When he returns to the court, Porzingis will be a fascinating fit for the Mavericks. Long compared to Dirk Nowitzki as a 7-foot-plus European with deep shooting range, Porzingis will now potentially succeed him in Dallas and could form one of the league's most potent pick-and-roll partnerships with Doncic. If Porzingis is the same player we saw before his injury, opponents will have few good options against Doncic-Porzingis pick-and-pops, with either player capable of pulling up from 3 or taking advantage of a mismatch after a switch.
However, Porzingis' restricted free agency this summer complicates the issue. His concerns about the Knicks surely accelerated the timetable on this deal, and it's unclear how Porzingis will feel about playing for the Mavericks. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Thursday that he has yet to make a decision about his future in Dallas, which is both understandable and not exactly reassuring for the Mavericks.
I'm not sure I buy the threat of Porzingis accepting his qualifying offer and becoming an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2020. Such a move would be unprecedented for a player who was offered the kind of deal he wanted coming off his rookie contract, and that's before factoring in the value of security for a player coming off an injury. That said, there's a first time for everything, and Porzingis might value the ability to determine where he plays enough to stomach the risk of reinjury.
If Porzingis indeed re-ups long term, the injury risk shifts to the Mavericks. There's long been concern that Porzingis' 7-foot-3 frame put him at risk of injury, and depending on whether he is cleared by the end of the season, Dallas might have to commit without seeing him play in an NBA game after the ACL injury.
Without having access to Porzingis' medical reports, it's tough to assess just how much of a gamble the Mavericks are taking here. From the outside, however, it's too much to be worth giving up both Smith and draft picks.
In today's risk-averse NBA, deals like this one sending out multiple first-round picks are rare. The last deal where a team sent multiple first-round picks without getting any in return came when the Miami Heat acquired Goran Dragic from the Phoenix Suns at the trade deadline in 2015.
To be better than the max contract Dallas hopes to give him, Porzingis will have to be durable and effective enough to play at an All-Star level. I think it's much more likely that he falls short of that than plays so well as to be worth more than the max. As a result, I would have taken my chances with Smith's development, the picks and whatever else the Mavericks could have acquired by renting out their cap space.