What kind of trade value should the Los Angeles Lakers' young players have in a possible Anthony Davis trade?
Whether the Lakers have a chance to land Davis will depend in large part on how the New Orleans Pelicans value the team's recent first-round picks, none of which has yielded a surefire star. The limitations of the Lakers' young talent has been on full display with LeBron James out of the lineup for the past month, during which they have alternated impressive road wins with falling flat on their faces at home.
Only time will tell how the Pelicans view the Lakers' players, but let's check in on their development and see how they rank with the help of statistical projections heading into the 2019 NBA trade deadline.
1. Lonzo Ball
An analytics specialist for an NBA team recently observed that how others regard Ball is an important litmus test for how well they understand the game. Ball's limitations are obvious and glaring. After shooting 45 percent on free throws as a rookie, he's down to 42 percent in Year 2. And while Ball has made incremental progress as a 3-point shooter, his 33 percent mark is still not good enough to make him a threat when spotting up opposite James or Brandon Ingram.
Ball's ability to command respect as a spot-up shooter is particularly important not only because of his teammates but also because he'll never be a traditional pick-and-roll point guard. Ball rarely looks to get into the paint and kick to teammates. Per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, Ball has averaged just 5.0 drives per game this season, fewer than Cleveland Cavaliers wing Cedi Osman (5.6). He'd rather facilitate the offense than create it in the half court, which means spending much of his time off the ball.
At the same time, Ball's strengths are conducive to winning basketball. His ability to push the ball in transition is a key factor in the Lakers ranking third in fast-break points per game this season. And while he started slowly after offseason knee surgery, Ball remains one of the league's better defenders at point guard. His plus-0.7 defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) is 11th at the position this season after Ball finished third as a rookie.
Well-calibrated all-in-one stats are particularly well-suited to value players like Ball with distinct strengths and weaknesses. And they continue to peg Ball as the most valuable of the Lakers' young players. His 3.1 wins above replacement player (WARP) by my metric ranks second on the team behind LeBron. Ball is also second among Lakers in Basketball-Reference.com's value over replacement player (VORP).
Although Ball's inability to improve on his weaknesses much in Year 2 is a concern, his productivity and age (21, younger than 2018-19 Lakers rookies Svi Mykhailiuk and Moritz Wagner) continue to suggest his long-term outlook is the brightest of the team's young players.
2. Kyle Kuzma
In his second season, Kuzma has built on an unexpectedly strong rookie campaign, emerging as a full-time starter and the Lakers' second-leading scorer after James. A volume scorer in 2017-18, Kuzma has improved his efficiency while simultaneously taking on a greater share of the Lakers' offense (he's finishing 24 percent of the team's plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover, up from 22 percent as a rookie).
Kuzma has offset regression from beyond the 3-point line (after hitting an unexpected 37 percent of his 3s as a rookie, he's down to 30 percent this season) by boosting his 2-point percentage from 51 percent to 57 percent, fifth highest among the 59 players with a usage rate of 24 percent or higher in at least 500 minutes, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Perhaps most impressively, Kuzma has held his own defensively against starters after struggling as a rookie. Given the Lakers' desire to hide LeBron on weaker scorers to allow James to help aggressively and conserve his energy for offense, Kuzma's ability to match up at either forward spot is a crucial asset. Kuzma is still a subpar defender and playmaker, which explains why Ball rates better by all-in-one stats, but he's proved to be the best fit next to James of the Lakers' young players. Add in a bargain contract (he'll make $5.5 million the next two seasons), Kuzma is valuable either in L.A. or in a trade.
3. Brandon Ingram
Conversely, Ingram seems to have suffered the most from LeBron's arrival in L.A. After finding a rhythm playing with the ball in his hands late in the 2017-18 season, Ingram has chafed in an off-ball role this year. While Ingram has played better with James out of the lineup and more playmaking opportunity, consistency has still been a challenge for him.
The all-in-one stats tell an ugly story about Ingram's campaign. Unable to maintain the strong 3-point shooting he flashed on limited attempts in his second season, Ingram has been inefficient as a scorer; his .528 true shooting percentage is far weaker than league average (.558). Add in Ingram's limited contributions as a help defender (his 0.9 steals per 100 team plays ranks in the league's bottom 20 among players with at least 500 minutes -- shocking given his length), and he's rated weaker than replacement level by WARP this season.
There are certainly moments when Ingram's ability to bull his way into position to shoot over smaller defenders looks like it will eventually translate into elite scoring. The past four games, where Ingram has averaged 20 points on 58.5 percent shooting, offer a glimpse of that potential. However, Ingram's most similar players at the same age according to my SCHOENE projection system are worrisome. His top five comps include Andrew Wiggins (the most similar, with a score of 97.3 out of 100), Harrison Barnes, Jeff Green and Marvin Williams -- all lottery picks who tantalized with their talent but were unable to translate their skills into a winning style of basketball.
Ingram's other top-five comp is the most encouraging: DeMar DeRozan of the San Antonio Spurs, whose ability to score in high volume from midrange and get to the free throw line has made him a four-time All-Star. Whether it's the Lakers or another team that trades for Ingram, they will have to decide soon whether to bet on Ingram -- eligible for an extension next fall -- following DeRozan's path rather than seeing his trade value decline like the other players most similar to him.
4. Josh Hart
Hart's 3-and-D skill set seemed ideally suited to complementing LeBron in L.A. Alas, the "3" part of the equation hasn't come through yet this season. Hart is shooting just 35 percent from beyond the arc, down from 40 percent as a rookie. Realistically, Hart will probably settle between those two marks, putting him better than average from downtown but less than elite.
Defensively, Hart has been as advertised. His strength for his size makes Hart a good fit for a switch-heavy defense, but he can also handle a more traditional stopper role on the wing. Hart's defense has kept him solidly in the rotation as his shooting has slumped; if and when it comes around he'll be a top-tier backup or a low-end starter. Given the difficulty of finding contributors on the wings and Hart's low salary as a late first-round pick (he'll make slightly less than Kuzma over the next two seasons), keeping him should be a goal for the Lakers if they end up making a trade.
5. Ivica Zubac
Zubac mania has gripped L.A. as the Croatian 7-footer has played the best basketball of his career over the past few weeks, claiming a starting job. Zubac has made important strides in his third season, pushing his 2-point percentage above 60 percent while emerging as a reliable rim protector. Nonetheless, the Lakers should be careful to avoid overvaluing him ahead of restricted free agency this summer.
More than almost any other team, the Lakers illustrate the ease of finding contributors at center in the modern NBA. JaVale McGee, signed for the veteran's minimum last summer, has given them quality finishing and rim protection. Tyson Chandler, also available at the minimum after agreeing to a buyout with the Phoenix Suns, has solidified their defense at the position.
And then there's Thomas Bryant, waived by the Lakers last summer to create additional cap space. Claimed by the Washington Wizards, Bryant has emerged in his second season as one of the league's most efficient scorers, making an incredible 71 percent of his 2s as Washington's starting 5-man.
Given that the primary skills the Lakers need from their center (rim protection and finishing) are in widespread supply, they would be wise not to invest many resources in the position.
That revelation comes after they used last year's first-round pick on Wagner, who's barely played as a rookie after missing much of the preseason and the start of the regular season with a bone contusion in his left knee that he suffered in summer league. Wagner's stretch ability will give the Lakers a different look at the 5 -- and also allows him to play some power forward -- but he's yet to give any indication that he's the team's future at the position.