Who will challenge for the No. 1 pick? Will there be another Trae Young? And what's next for alternative NBA draft paths?
ESPN draft experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton answer the big questions before the college basketball season tips off.
How deep is this race for No. 1, and how far ahead is the current favorite?
Givony: Sometimes one player emerges very early as the favorite for the No. 1 pick and never looks back. LeBron James, Anthony Davis, John Wall, Andrew Wiggins and Greg Oden are good examples of that, for better or worse. This doesn't appear to be one of those years.
Even though RJ Barrett has been the unanimous choice as the projected No. 1 pick since our very first forecast, his hold on that slot remains tentative, pending more information. Barrett has done everything possible to separate himself from the pack at this stage, but there are at least three other candidates -- two of which are Duke teammates -- he'll have to fend off to eventually hear his name called first by Adam Silver on June 20.
NBA executives we've spoken with mostly call the race for No. 1 a four-player contest, with the drop-off to the next tier of prospects being relatively substantial. In addition to Barrett, Duke's Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish are also firmly in the mix, as well as North Carolina's Nassir Little, who only emerged this past spring during the high school all-star game circuit as a serious contender. NBA teams don't appear to be convinced or enamored with the star power of this group, saying privately that it remains to be seen whether any of these prospects project to be the best player on a NBA playoff-caliber team down the line.
How do the top prospects project statistically?
Pelton: The addition of AAU stats from the Nike Elite Youth Basketball (EYBL) compiled by ESPN Analytics to my draft projections allows us to rank some top recruits going into their freshmen season for the first time. When researching the value of EYBL stats prior to the 2018 draft, I found them similarly effective at projecting players to the NBA as college performance.
Of the contenders for the No. 1 pick, two -- Barrett and Reddish -- played in the EYBL. Reddish was effective there, giving him the second-best stats-only projection among freshmen behind Bol Bol. Barrett finished an incredible 42 percent of his team's plays, but after translating for level of play, his 2-point percentage and steal rate were poor. So he ranks second on the strength of his spot atop the Top 100, though Barrett's stats-only projection will end up dominated by college play because he got only 233 minutes of EYBL action.
Bol was the best of this year's freshmen in EYBL play, making 69 percent of his 2-point attempts and blocking nearly 11 percent of opponent 2-point attempts. Meanwhile, Kentucky forward Keldon Johnson was the least effective top prospect in the EYBL and could be inefficient as a freshman given his limited 3-point range and high turnover rate.
Kansas transfer Dedric Lawson has the best projection among returning prospects thanks to a well-rounded game. He projects among the top quarter of NBA-bound small forwards in six different categories, and does not rank in the bottom quarter in any of the 10 skills I consider. Markus Howard projects well thanks to 45 percent 3-point shooting in his first two seasons, though the 5-foot-11 Howard will surely have to play point guard in the NBA. Howard's Marquette teammate Sam Hauser is another outstanding 3-point shooter (47 percent the past two seasons), albeit at lower volume.
Who will be the first non-freshman college player drafted?
Givony: Mikal Bridges had this honor in 2018 at the No. 10 pick. In 2017 it was Luke Kennard at No. 12. That's a far cry from previous years. On average a non-freshman was picked No. 4 overall (and no lower than No. 6) in the 10 previous drafts. Will we continue to see NBA teams shy away from non-freshmen collegiates in the top-10 moving forward?
The highest such players in that mold -- sophomore Daniel Gafford, redshirt sophomore De'Andre Hunter and junior Rui Hachimura -- are projected at No. 11, 12 and 13 in our upcoming Top 100, with room to rise. Jontay Porter looked like a strong candidate to crack the top 10 as well, but he was just ruled out for the duration of the 2018-2019 season after tearing both his ACL and MCL, something that will make cracking the lottery far more unlikely.
What's the strongest position group this time?
Schmitz: After the year of the lead guard (2017) and a barrage of bigs (2018), what's next? Big guards, wings and combo forwards. While there may not be a bona fide future MVP at the top or a slew of All-Stars in the lottery, this group could fill huge needs throughout the modern NBA.
The first eight players in ESPN's Top 100 stand between 6-foot-5 and 6-9, with seven of them classified as big guards, wings or combo forwards. Between Barrett, Little, Reddish, Johnson, Romeo Langford, Quentin Grimes and Sekou Doumbouya, the top 10 is littered with versatile, switchable prospects. And even the other three have new-age qualities.
While a limited shooter, Williamson is a powerful, explosive small-ball 4/5 with an underrated handle and passing instincts. Although slight, Vanderbilt point guard Darius Garland is an explosive, ultra-skilled 6-3 PG in the Trae Young archetype. Then there's Bol -- a 7-3 beanpole with excellent fluidity, shot-blocking instincts and natural touch that extends to 3.
Every team is looking for these skill sets.
How does the international class look?
Givony: The 2018 class was salvaged by Luka Doncic, arguably the most heralded European prospect ever and the eventual No. 3 pick. This year the best two candidates to crash the lottery -- Doumbouya and Luka Samanic -- are off to relatively slow starts that raise serious doubts about their lofty projections.
Can anyone emerge from the pack? Some scouts were highly skeptical about Doncic last year, and the next international player after him (Dzanan Musa) wasn't selected until 25 picks later. Elie Okobo dropped 44 points on 17 shots in the French playoffs and still ended up in the second round. If those guys couldn't get NBA teams excited, what will? Probably not a pair of 18-year olds who are still finding their footing at the professional level.
Will more internationals elect to join U.S. colleges and prove themselves against similarly aged players, like Hachimura and Charles Bassey this year and Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Lauri Markkanen did previously? And are the challenges facing Doumbouya and Samanic a preview of how one-and-done teenagers might look playing in the G League?
Who are this year's Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Zhaire Smith?
Schmitz: There's usually a freshman or two we don't see coming as a surprise one-and-done. Young, Gilgeous-Alexander and Smith all started last year outside our mock before crashing the top 16. Who are the candidates to watch this time?
Tyler Herro | PG/SG | Kentucky
Herro figures to play a big role on a Kentucky team that's short on shooting. He displays footwork and touch from deep, even rising up out of pick-and-roll, suggesting he should be able to play on the ball some given his feel. His negative wingspan and sub-par defense aren't ideal, but the he has the positional size and skill set teams covet.
Kevin Porter | SG | USC
Loaded with natural talent, the 6-5, 220-pound lefty plays a James Harden-style of basketball, putting defenders on skates with his combination of power and quickness. He's one of the more gifted shot-creators in the country, and the Trojans appear willing to put the ball in his hands as the season progresses. He made a name for himself in a scrimmage against the 2018 Hoop Summit USA team, shining in front of NBA scouts as the best player on a court that also featured Reddish, Langford and Grimes.
If he can stay focused and healthy, Porter has a chance to be a major player in the 2019 draft. Those remain big ifs, though, as he has long been known for his bouts of inconsistency and nagging injuries. Porter has been dinged up in the preseason, and he might have a slow start to the year as he's still learning how to defend and play in a system. But in a draft short on high-end talent, Porter is an intriguing prospect to follow.
Luguentz Dort | PG/SG | Arizona State
Dort has opened some eyes with his physicality, hard-nosed defense and ability to get downhill as a jumbo combo guard. He is a developing shooter and decision maker, but the Pac-12 is wide open and the Sun Devils sound committed to giving him on-ball reps, which should elevate his production and stock. Already physically developed, Dort could help an NBA team defensively right now.
What's next for alternative draft paths?
Givony: The guilty verdicts in last week's pay-for-play trial once again brought to light the criticisms many have with the NCAA's amateurism model, opening the door for additional draft pathways until the NBA rescinds the one-and-done rule. Last year saw two American prospects -- Anfernee Simons and Mitchell Robinson -- take separate unconventional routes to the NBA. Simons entered as a fifth year post-graduate via IMG Academy, and Robinson simply sat out the year.
The Australian NBL has reacted by instituting a Next Stars program, recruiting one of the FBI investigations' main casualties in Brian Bowen, who is quietly having a strong start to the season. The G League also created its own professional path that will debut in the summer of 2019 at NBA summer league. It remains to be seen if elite high school prospects will embrace these alternatives, as they grew up in the one-and-done era and might be skeptical about the risk involved with untested paths. But there are undoubtedly more options now.
After Simons was drafted No. 24 and Mitchell Robinson went No. 36, Darius Bazley (rated No. 16 in his high school class) is an interesting case in 2019. Like Robinson, Bazley will not be playing organized basketball for the duration of the season, instead focusing on training for pre-draft workouts in June while cashing in on a lucrative endorsement opportunity he secured from New Balance.
Executives with some NBA teams wonder if we will start seeing players look to reclassify and graduate high school earlier in order to accelerate their draft timetable. Out of the 76 members of the 2019 high school class currently designated as NBA prospects in the DraftExpress database, 49 were technically old enough to have been eligible for the 2019 draft by fulfilling the "one year removed from high school graduation" requirement. In fact, 10 of those players also would have been eligible to be picked in the 2018 draft since they were born in 1999. Instead, those 1999-born players won't actually be eligible to enter the draft until 2020, two years after their similarly-aged international counterparts.
With more players leaving traditional high schools for prep schools with their own structures, clearing the one-year-removed requirement becomes less clear. Will we eventually see players look to accelerate their timetables with online courses, forcing the NBA into rulings it is likely not comfortable making about the somewhat ambiguous language found in the Collective Bargaining Agreement? There is quite a bit of money at stake, especially with the NBA and NBPA stalled on reaching a new age-limit agreement.