Kevin Durant visits Madison Square Garden on Friday night, sparking questions about the superstar who should be No. 1 on the New York Knicks' list of free-agent targets next summer.
How real are the Knicks' chances to sign KD? What trades and moves do they have to make to build a team around him and Kristaps Porzingis? And how good would that team actually be?
NBA experts Ian Begley, Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton break it down.
Do the Knicks really have a shot?
Begley: In the summer of 2016, Durant was taking free-agent meetings in the Hamptons, an upscale area about 90 miles away from MSG. He was practically in the Knicks' backyard, but the club couldn't get a meeting with the former MVP. The optics were bad. Steve Mills, though, saw reason for optimism. Mills, then the Knicks' general manager, believed Durant would have met with the Knicks that very summer if he'd signed a short-term contract to remain in Oklahoma City.
"We know that if he had made a decision to do a (two-year contract with a player option to stay in OKC), that we would have a meeting with him because then we would have been one of those teams he would think about for the following year," Mills said at the time.
When Durant signed with Golden State, Mills assumed Durant would remain in the Bay long term. But Durant inked a deal with a player option for the 2019-20 season, opening up the door again for the Knicks -- and for 28 other NBA teams.
Of course, it's impossible at this point to say with any certainty what Durant will do this summer. As reported Thursday: Several opposing executives have said in recent weeks that they wouldn't be surprised if Durant left Golden State. Durant himself discussed the possibility of leaving the Warriors with associates in the offseason, according to league sources familiar with the matter. That isn't a clear indication that he will leave Golden State this summer. It was a conversation that took place more than eight months before his free agency -- plenty can happen between now and July 2019.
But if he, as expected, ends up exploring the free-agent landscape this summer, it would be a surprise if the Knicks didn't get a meeting this time. And the club feels well-positioned to sign a top player in the coming offseason.
"We feel like we're going to put ourselves in a position where stars are going to want to come to us," Mills, now the Knicks' team president, said in July.
There's also some evidence that, despite the poor on-court results, top players view the Knicks as a free-agent destination again. Kyrie Irving said earlier this month that, before he committed to re-sign with Boston, he strongly considered New York as a potential landing spot.
"Playing for (Knicks head coach David Fizdale) and a great young core that they have here and thinking about playing with (Kristaps Porzingis). That was a big thing before I made my decision," he said.
We'll find out in eight months if Durant -- or any other top players -- feel the same way.
The moves the Knicks need to make
Bobby Marks: The magic number to sign Durant is $38.1 million -- the max for a player with 10 years of experience.
New York is over the cap next summer and would have to go through a series of transactions (and tough decisions) to create the room needed:
The path to $38 million
Here is where the Knicks' front office will need to be creative and smart. The logical decision is to wipe away all free-agent holds besides Porzingis, Trey Burke and their 2019 first-round pick. That would include renouncing starting center Enes Kanter. (Ironically, falling out of the top five in the draft could be advantageous for New York. The worse their pick is, the more cap space they will have in free agency.)
New York would have $28.1 million available, still $10 million short of a max slot. Creating the room then comes down to three options.
Waive veteran Lance Thomas and former second-round pick Damyean Dotson, then renounce Burke.
Find a trade partner to take on the $12.8 million expiring Courtney Lee contract
Waive and stretch Lee.
Waiving only Thomas and Dotson leaves the Knicks with $37.3 million in room, $800K short. Unless Durant is willing to take the pay cut, Burke could be the odd man out.
Trading Lee without taking back additional salary would leave the Knicks with $39.3 million in room, good enough for a max slot while allowing the team to keep Thomas and Dotson without renouncing Allonzo Trier and Burke.
Despite half the league having significant cap space next summer, Lee's play this season will determine whether New York will need to attach an asset to shed his contract. He has dealt with neck spasms recently and not appeared in a game to date. New York does have multiple future second-round picks to attach in a Lee deal, including their own starting in 2021, two from Charlotte (2020 and 2021) and one from the Orlando Magic this June. Remember that the Knicks' front office was not willing to include a draft pick attached to Joakim Noah in trade talks.
Speaking of Noah -- the Knicks can take the same approach with Lee as they did with their former center. If the team is unable to find a taker, Lee could be stretched over three seasons with a $4.25 million annual cap hit starting in 2019-20.
Stretching Lee, waiving Thomas and renouncing all free-agent holds except for Burke and Trier would give New York $42.7 million in cap space. The NBA allows a team to stretch an unlimited number of players as long as the combined salary is below the salary cap by 15 percent. In this case, New York can't stretch more than $16.35 million in additional salary.
What about another max player to join KD?
Here is where the Knicks will need some help from another team. Besides trading Lee and renouncing all their free agents (including waiving Thomas and Dotson), New York would need to find a team to take on the $37 million owed to Tim Hardaway Jr. The guard also has a 15 percent trade kicker that would add $2.7 million to his $18.15 million salary in 2019-20.
A team with cap space could view Hardaway as an alternative after missing out on free-agent targets. A team will need to ask: "If Hardaway were a free agent in 2019, would we sign him to a two-year, $38 million contract"?
Clearing Hardaway's salary in a trade would leave the Knicks with $69.8 million to use -- good enough to sign Durant and close enough to add a second max player like the Timberwolves' Jimmy Butler.
The financial obstacle
As if creating the salary to sign Durant was not hard enough, New York will need to convince the All-Star to leave close to $60 million in guaranteed money on the table by departing Golden State.
Because Durant has full Bird rights, the Warriors can offer him a contract of five years, $221 million.The Knicks can only offer four years, $164 million. Durant can make up some of that difference by signing another max deal in the summer of 2023, when he'll be approaching his age 35 season.
How good would New York be?
Kevin Pelton: Alright, let's say the Knicks do pull this off and sign Durant next summer after making the kind of cap-clearing moves Bobby outlined. What kind of team would they have? Let's take a look at a projected roster:
In addition to these players, New York would also have this year's first-round pick (likely to end up in the lottery) and the room midlevel exception (currently estimated at $4.8 million) to help fill out the roster. While the Knicks would be flush with wings after adding Durant, they'd be light at the point -- where Ntilikina has played sparingly this season, instead starting at shooting guard -- and in the middle, with no choice but to renounce the cap hold to starter Enes Kanter.
Finding a way to fill 48 minutes a night at center shouldn't be an issue. Porzingis can play there as part of smaller lineups that allow Durant to slide to power forward, and it's never been easier to find capable 5s on the cheap. (Noah Vonleh, off to a strong start after signing a non-guaranteed contract for the veteran's minimum this summer, is yet another example of this trend.)
At point guard, New York would probably rely on re-signing Burke, who will have a minimum-salary cap hold next summer as an unrestricted free agent. Burke parlayed his strong performance after being promoted from the G League last season into a starting spot this year, and though he's off to a slow shooting start, the Knicks' offense has played well with him on the court.
Just how good New York could be in 2019-20 would probably be contingent on Porzingis' return from the torn ACL he suffered in February 2018. If Porzingis is back to full strength, he and Durant would give the Knicks a pair of All-Stars, something they've had only once (Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler in 2012-13, when they won 54 games) in the past 17 years.
Ultimately, a Knicks team with Durant would probably look at first much like this year's Lakers with LeBron James -- a flawed work in progress. The difference is New York wouldn't have the ability to subsequently sign a second max free agent, since Porzingis' large salary on a new deal would make that all but impossible. So to become contenders with Durant, the Knicks would be even more dependent on the development of their own young talent, either as complementary parts or to use in a trade for a veteran.