After being traded for each other in a draft-night swap, No. 3 overall pick Luka Doncic and No. 5 pick Trae Young are destined to be connected throughout their NBA careers. Whether it's fair to them or not, we'll be debating for years whether the Dallas Mavericks were wise to move up -- sending a protected first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks for the privilege -- and whether the Hawks would have been better off staying put with Doncic.
Though it's far too early to draw any conclusions, as Doncic and Young prepare to square off for the first time Wednesday in Atlanta's home opener, let's check in on how both top prospects have started their NBA careers and what that says about their potential.
Young finding the range off the dribble
Thus far this season, just two players have attempted more pull-up 3-pointers per game than Young (6.0), according to NBA Advanced Stats: James Harden (8.7) and Kemba Walker (8.3). Of course, there was never any doubt Young would attempt those kinds of long 3s off the dribble, a signature dating back to his high school days. The question was whether they would go in.
According to Synergy Sports tracking, Young attempted 6.2 3-pointers per game off the dribble during his lone season at Oklahoma, but connected at just a 34.2 percent clip from the shorter NCAA 3-point line. Granted, Young rarely took advantage of the shorter line. Bjorn Zetterberg wrote in a subscription piece for Cleaning the Glass that nearly three-quarters of Young's 3-point attempts in college were from beyond the NBA 3-point line. Still, Zetterberg found that Young made those -- both off the dribble and in catch-and-shoot situations -- at a 33 percent clip.
Young also struggled with his accuracy during seven summer-league games, making just 27.3 percent of his 3s overall. That was a small enough sample (55 shots), and the 28 3-pointers Young has attempted so far during his first three regular-season outings -- on 39 percent shooting, or nearly four makes per game -- is tinier yet. So it's much too early to say that Young will keep making so many 3s off the dribble. However, it is clear how effective Young can be when he shoots this well.
Last year, I explained why the pull-up 3-pointer has become the most important shot for modern point guards because of the way it forces defenses to chase over picks, creating more opportunities for good shooters to drive and set up teammates. As my colleague Mike Schmitz pointed out on Twitter, that's precisely what happened with Young during Sunday's 133-111 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Young's six 3s in 14 attempts forced Cleveland to switch most pick-and-rolls involving him and live with the resulting mismatches. Seven of Young's career-high 11 assists came out off ball screens, according to Second Spectrum tracking, and they resulted in four dunks, two layups and a 3-pointer.
The Hawks have relied heavily on Young, who is finishing 26 percent of the team's plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover and handing out an assist on nearly 10 percent more, the league's 12th-highest combined usage among players with at least 100 minutes through Monday. Given that, it's surprising how sure-handed Young has been, turning the ball over just 2.7 times per game -- 11.9 percent of the plays he has finished, slightly better than the average point guard (12.3 percent).
Young could certainly stand to get more involved on the defensive end, where he has accumulated just two steals thus far. Atlanta has allowed a 117.5 defensive rating with Young on the court, per NBA Advanced Stats, as compared to 89.6 points per 100 possessions when he sits -- though it's too early for those numbers to stabilize. (Young has spent just 40 minutes on the bench.) The Hawks, who are still in the early stages of their rebuilding process, will live with those defensive growing pains if Young keeps shooting so well.
Doncic prolific, though mistake-prone
Ordinarily, a 26-point, six-assist effort like Doncic had on Saturday in a win over the Jimmy Butler-less Minnesota Timberwolves would probably be the high-water mark for rookies in the first week. It's a testament to the depth of this year's class that Doncic's game ranks just seventh in game score by a rookie, per Basketball-Reference.com. (Young's 35-point, 11-assist game against the Cavaliers is tops by a wide margin.)
The relatively low ranking of Doncic's best game also reflects his six turnovers, which hampered his efficiency on a night when he needed just 16 shots and nine free throw attempts to score 26 points. Unlike Young, Doncic has experienced the typical rookie struggles with turnovers, coughing up the ball 13 times in three games -- a full 20 percent of the plays he has finished.
I wouldn't really attribute Doncic's turnovers to forcing the issue. He has been called for traveling four times, including a rare carry, and has a couple of times simply failed to connect with DeAndre Jordan on passes. Those plays are unlikely to continue as Doncic adjusts to the NBA and his teammates. That's good news, because, after a 5-of-16 debut where he looked heavy-legged, Doncic has made 50 percent of his field goals the last two games with an effective field-goal percentage of 61.7 percent thanks to seven 3-pointers.
You don't have to go far beyond Young on the NBA's pull-up 3 leaderboard to find Doncic, who ranks 12th in makes at 1.7 per game. Unlike Young, whose 3s off the dribble typically come either out of pick-and-roll or while waiting for one to come, Doncic gets most of his pull-up 3s on step-backs in isolation.
Both Doncic and Young could stand to get to the free throw line more often, something that helped both players pad their efficiency last season when shots weren't falling. Skeptical scouts believed Doncic and Young were getting the benefit of favorable whistles, and so far neither player has gotten to the line at even a league average rate. Doncic shot nine free throws against Minnesota, but he has combined for just four in his other two games. Young is averaging 3.3 free throw attempts per game.
Wednesday night should be the first of many meetings between Doncic and Young, and it will be fun to watch them build on the skills they've shown already.