The torn ACL suffered by San Antonio Spurs guard Dejounte Murray during Sunday's preseason game, confirmed by the Spurs Monday after Murray underwent an MRI, couldn't have come at a worse time. Not only does it end what looked like a possible breakout season for Murray before it even started, it also compromises San Antonio's depth at point guard as the organization bids for a 22nd-consecutive playoff appearance, which would tie the NBA's all-time record.
How will the Spurs replace Murray? And what impact might the injury have on his long-term development? Let's take a look.
San Antonio counting on Murray at the point
Midway through Murray's second season, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich turned to him as starting point guard in place of veteran Tony Parker, a move that was important both symbolically and in basketball terms. Though his offensive game remains a work in progress, Murray had simply outplayed Parker, a key starter for San Antonio's most recent four championship teams. The change set the table for Parker to depart the Spurs this summer as an unrestricted free agent, signing with the Charlotte Hornets.
With Murray and veteran Patty Mills, who started together late last season in a smaller backcourt, San Antonio appeared set at the point despite Parker's departure. Naturally, that plan relied heavily on Murray, who played a key role in the Spurs' top-five defense last season and earned All-Defensive Second Team honors at age 21. After a summer of hard work, the San Antonio organization was optimistic about Murray's chances of improving his shooting to go along with that strong defense, as ESPN's Zach Lowe relayed in a recent feature on this season's most intriguing players.
Presumably, Murray's injury means the shoot-first Mills will be the starter at point guard, a role the Spurs have generally preferred he avoid playing. Last year's 36 starts were double Mills' total (18) over his previous six seasons in San Antonio. Despite Murray's development, moving Mills into the starting five should improve the Spurs' floor spacing. He's a career 39 percent 3-point shooter who has averaged nearly three triples per 36 minutes while in San Antonio.
The downside comes at the other end of the court, where the 6-foot Mills doesn't offer nearly as much resistance as the long-limbed, 6-foot-5 Murray. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Spurs allowed 107.7 points per 100 possessions last season when Mills played and Murray was on the bench, a rate worse than league average, as compared to 96.8 when Murray played and Mills sat. That would have been the NBA's best defensive rating by a wide margin.
The combination of Mills, Murray and/or Parker was on the floor for nearly every meaningful minute San Antonio played last season. With Parker now in Charlotte, Murray's injury likely makes second-year player Derrick White the backup at the point. After playing just 139 minutes as a rookie, the 2017 first-round pick appeared poised to play a larger role this season at both guard spots. Now he'll have to focus largely on playing point guard, putting an emphasis on White's ability to make plays for teammates.
Murray's injury could also have an impact on how the Spurs fill out their roster. Right now, they don't have a third healthy point guard, though reserve shooting guard Bryn Forbes could play the position in a pinch. With 14 guaranteed contracts, San Antonio has a spot on the 15-man roster open as well as one of its two-way contracts, either of which could go to a point guard. Journeyman Nick Johnson, invited to training camp after playing for the Austin Spurs of the G League last season, would be the top in-house candidate.
Spurs' playoff chances take hit
Already, the loss of wings Kyle Anderson and Danny Green -- not to mention Kawhi Leonard, although he barely played last season -- put San Antonio's playoff streak in greater jeopardy than at any point in the past two decades. Our summer projection using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) put the Spurs 10th in the Western Conference in terms of expected wins (38.5), suggesting they were more likely than not to find themselves outside of the playoff picture.
Given Murray's strong RPM last season (plus-1.7, putting him among the league's top 20 point guards on the strength of his defensive impact), his loss further weakens San Antonio's projection. Redistributing Murray's minutes primarily to Mills and White causes the Spurs to drop another 2.5 projected wins, putting their projection around 36 -- barely ahead of the LA Clippers for 10th in the West.
San Antonio has outperformed pessimistic projections before, but making the playoffs this year looks like a much more challenging task without Murray.
Long-term impact for Murray
The silver lining for Murray is suffering an ACL injury now means it shouldn't linger into the 2019-20 season. He'll have more than 11 months to rehab before the start of training camp. Nonetheless, the injury figures to have an impact on Murray's long-term development.
When Zach LaVine suffered a torn ACL in February 2017, I looked at the track record of players who dealt with the injury at age 21 compared to what my SCHOENE projection system forecast for them before the injury. Though Murray recently turned 22, this group of players offers a similar baseline for his recovery.
This group was projected to average 8.6 WARP apiece over the following three seasons based on their performance before the injury. Instead, they contributed just 4.6 WARP on average.
Much of the difference came the year after the injury, which isn't surprising, because in addition to a drop-off in per-minute effectiveness, rehabbing from an ACL also kept all of the players, save Al Harrington, out part of the following season. (This was also true with LaVine, who missed the first 42 games of 2017-18 before returning.) Even two and three years removed from the injury, however, they continued to lag behind their pre-injury projections.
Oddly, Seattle-area guards have been hit hard by ACL injuries at a young age. LaVine is from the Seattle suburbs, and both Murray and Jamal Crawford, who had perhaps the most successful recovery of any player to suffer a torn ACL early in his NBA career, are products of Seattle's Rainier Beach High School. Crawford, currently unsigned after enjoying a healthy NBA career through age 38, has been a mentor to Murray and can surely help with his recovery.
The group of predecessors certainly shows that it's possible to come back from a torn ACL to have a long, productive NBA career. But a breakout campaign for Murray will be delayed at least another year.