It says something about how quickly this summer's free agency has moved that nine of the top 10 players in my projections have agreed to deals within the first three days. With that in mind, let's take a look at an updated top 10, this time ranking players subjectively rather than relying solely on statistical projections.
One clear takeaway: The list is dominated by restricted free agents. Just seven restricted free agents have agreed to deals thus far. With few teams possessing more cap space than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception and none of them apparently motivated to spend it, restricted free agents could be headed toward drawn-out negotiations with their current teams.
1. Clint Capela
Houston Rockets
Center
Age: 24
Restricted
Capela is the one max-caliber player left on the market. Alas, just the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls have the ability to pay anything close to that amount, and neither of them seems likely to tender an offer sheet for Capela. So his only leverage to get a sizable offer from the Rockets is the threat of taking his one-year, $4.8 million qualifying offer and trying again as an unrestricted free agent in 2019.
One possible compromise: a five-year, $122 million deal, which would pay Capela about $4.5 million less than his 2017-18 max -- saving Houston several times that in luxury taxes -- while getting him as much money as he would by taking the qualifying offer and signing a four-year max with another team next summer.
2. Marcus Smart
Boston Celtics
Guard
Age: 24
Restricted
The Indiana Pacers were probably Smart's best hope of a major offer sheet before they signed Tyreke Evans instead. Because of their luxury-tax concerns, the Celtics might not mind Smart taking his $6.0 million qualifying offer. That would give them another year to sort out their backcourt of the future and whether Smart has a place in it. Meanwhile, Smart's qualifying offer isn't appreciably less than he could probably get in free agency at this point.
3. Jabari Parker
Milwaukee Bucks
Forward
Age: 23
Restricted
Parker and the Bucks could be one of this summer's most interesting standoffs. Milwaukee moved quickly to agree on a deal with Ersan Ilyasova, who looks a lot like a possible Parker replacement. The Bucks could still afford to bring back Parker on a deal starting in the $10 million range or so. A long-term deal might be particularly attractive given Parker's history of two ACL tears, the most recent of which prevented him from reaching starter criteria last season, dropping his qualifying offer to just $4.3 million.
4. Zach LaVine
Chicago Bulls
Shooting guard
Age: 23
Restricted
Update: The Bulls have decided to match LaVine's $78 million offer sheet from the Sacramento Kings, league sources told ESPN.
On the eve of free agency, ESPN's Nick Friedell tweeted that a four-year, $60 million deal for LaVine felt like a "preferred number" for the Bulls, an idea LaVine laughed at in emoji form. Even $15 million a year is unlikely to be forthcoming in an offer sheet to LaVine, leaving him in a similar standoff. With more than $20 million in cap space factoring in LaVine's cap hold, Chicago wouldn't derive the same benefit from him taking his qualifying offer (also $4.3 million) as many teams. So that possibility may spur some movement toward a multiyear deal.
5. Jusuf Nurkic
Portland Trail Blazers
Center
Age: 23
Restricted
Update: Nurkic has agreed to a four-year, $48 million deal to stay with the Trail Blazers, a league source told ESPN.
I identified Nurkic as falling into the two categories (center and restricted free agent) most likely to get squeezed in free agency this summer, so it's no surprise that no offer appears forthcoming for him three days in. Nurkic taking his $4.7 million qualifying offer could enable the Blazers to avoid the luxury tax entirely, but Portland still might try to work out a longer-term deal that pays Nurkic a somewhat higher annual salary.
6. Montrezl Harrell
LA Clippers
Forward/center
Age: 24
Restricted
Unlike the other restricted free agents on this list, Harrell was a second-round pick, so his qualifying offer is a relatively paltry $1.8 million. Harrell also made the minimum salary the past three seasons, so he'd probably jump at a modest multiyear offer. The question is whether the Clippers, who have prioritized maintaining 2019 cap space, would make one. I'm also not sure there's a team with space or even the taxpayer midlevel looking for a center at this point, so Harrell could be stuck.
7. Kyle Anderson
San Antonio Spurs
Forward
Age: 24
Restricted
Update: The Spurs have declined to match Anderson's four-year, $37 million offer sheet from the Memphis Grizzlies, a league source confirmed to ESPN.
After agreeing to deals with Marco Belinelli and Rudy Gay in the first few hours of free agency, the Spurs have committed a minimum of $108 million to 11 players, leaving them $16 million to spend on the last four spots without going into the luxury tax. That should leave enough room for a multiyear deal for Anderson, who started 67 games last season.
8. Wayne Ellington
Miami Heat
Shooting guard
Age: 30
Unrestricted
Update: Ellington agreed to a one-year, $6.27 million deal to return to Miami.
It speaks to how quickly free agency has moved this summer that Ellington could be considered the best unrestricted free agent three days in. Isaiah Thomas had a higher projection, but Ellington's ability to stretch the floor and come off screens is an easier fit in almost any situation. He's a career 38 percent 3-point shooter who made 2.9 of them per game last season off the bench in Miami. At this point, Ellington is probably looking at offers for the midlevel exception at most.
9. Brook Lopez
Los Angeles Lakers
Center
Age: 30
Unrestricted
Update: Lopez has agreed to a one-year, $3.4 million deal with the Milwaukee Bucks, league sources told ESPN.
After making $22.6 million during the final season of his contract, Lopez figures to take a substantial pay cut in 2018-19. It's not necessarily that Lopez played poorly, though he wasn't any more efficient playing a smaller role in the Lakers' offense than he had with the Brooklyn Nets. It's just that centers of his ilk, particularly those too slow-footed to switch defensively, are so easy to find that they've lost value. The Lakers could still offer Lopez their remaining $5.5 million or so in cap space to return, but otherwise he's probably looking at exception offers from other teams.
10. Nemanja Bjelica
Minnesota Timberwolves
Forward
Age: 30
Unrestricted
Update: Bjelica has agreed to a one-year, $4.4 million deal with the Philadelphia 76ers, league sources told ESPN.
The Timberwolves pulled Bjelica's qualifying offer after agreeing to a deal with forward Anthony Tolliver as a replacement, making him an unrestricted free agent -- and my top forward on the unrestricted market. Bjelica can defend either forward spot (he's probably better against 4s) and shot 41.5 percent from 3-point range last season (37 percent career). One small note of caution: Though Bjelica has played just three seasons in the NBA, he's already 30, so he'll likely decline over the course of a multiyear contract.