The Dallas Mavericks are realizing the harsh reality of rebuilding.
After missing the playoffs for a second consecutive season, Dallas once again enters the offseason with a top-10 lottery pick and cap flexibility to advance the rebuild that began two years ago.
Let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing Dallas this offseason.
More summer focus: Click here for every team so far
The possible bridge year
For the first time since owner Mark Cuban bought the team in 2000, Dallas will be in the lottery for a second consecutive season.
To go from a team that won a combined 57 games over the past two seasons to a perennial playoff team like they were in the past, the Mavericks' front office (and Cuban) will face a decision this summer: wave the white flag on free agency like last year with an eye toward 2019, or attempt to accelerate the rebuild and take a proactive approach with possibly $27 million in cap space?
Taking a conservative approach is a painful exercise and one that will test the patience level not only with the front office but the Mavericks coaching staff. It is also the approach that is best for the long-term health of the organization.
What Dallas can sell is the 2018-19 season acting as a bridge year to the summer of 2019 when only Dennis Smith Jr., Harrison Barnes, Dwight Powell and their 2018 and 2019 likely lottery picks are under contract. Another year of development with Smith, the appeal of two top-10 picks, the emergence of Barnes combined with a projected $50 million in room has more appeal in a year from now compared to the free-agent pitch this July.
The accelerated rebuild
The team that often gets brought up with league executives when it comes to being a wild card with cap space this summer is not the Los Angeles Lakers or Philadelphia 76ers, but the Mavericks.
The Mavericks will be in a position to accelerate their rebuild with a projected $27 million in room and could be a landing spot for a player like DeMarcus Cousins or Julius Randle.
Both players are likely to be in a waiting game when it comes to their future -- Cousins because of his recovery from his left Achilles injury and Randle because of the Lakers' priority to target players like LeBron James and Paul George this summer.
This however could change if the Mavericks select a power forward or center in the first round.
The question is why would a likely non-playoff team risk flexibility now?
Because the market for cap space probably will begin to reset in 2019, as the number of teams with room next offseason probably will double from seven to 14.
Though the Mavericks will still have room next summer, so will half of the NBA.
Explore an extension with Barnes
Preserving future flexibility and entertaining extension talks with Barnes are two phrases that contradict each other.
After all, why would a rebuilding team like Dallas extend a player that would limit future flexibility?
For one, because Barnes has a $25 million player option in 2019-20. With the market for salary cap expected to reset in 2019 and 2020, Barnes could opt out of his contract and find suitors willing to pay a 26-year-old small forward in the prime of his career a comparable salary.
What the Mavericks could do is extend Barnes starting at $28.9 million in 2019-20 ($3.8 million more than his $25.1 million player option). Even with the loss of room, Dallas still projects to have $50 million in cap space. The trade-off for the Mavericks is that Year 2 (2020-21) and Year 3 (2021-22) of the extension would be decreased 8 percent. The cap hit for both years would be $26.6 and $24.3 million. In total, Barnes would receive $55 million in new money and the Mavericks would still retain flexibility (Barnes and Smith would be the only players under contract) for the future with Barnes signed through the 2021-22 season.
The future of Dirk
If Dallas declines Dirk Nowitzki's $5 million team option, the decision will be more about cap flexibility in 2018 and less about whether the Mavericks' legend can recover from season-ending left ankle surgery. The surgery procedure was more a cleanup and Nowitzki proved to be durable in 2017-18, playing in 77 games, which was tied for the most since 2014-15.
Like last offseason when the Mavericks declined Nowitzki's $25 million team option in late June only to sign him to a new contract, expect the same to occur this July. The difference, however, is that the Mavericks can exhaust their options to use cap space first and sign Nowitzki to the $4.4 million room midlevel. Last July, the Mavericks acted as a team over the cap and signed Nowitzki on July 6. The move essentially waived a white flag to free agency.
Summer cap breakdown
With Wesley Matthews exercising his $18.6 million option for 2018-19, Dallas is right at the salary cap with $102.7 million in salary, including free-agent cap holds and non-guaranteed contracts.
How the Mavericks elect to create cap space will come down to their own free agents, most notably restricted free agent Doug McDermott and his $10 million free-agent hold.
Releasing the McDermott hold and Nerlens Noel's $7.9 million hold would see the Mavericks create $18 million in room. Combined with Seth Curry ($3.9 million) and declining the Nowitzki $5 million team option would see the Mavericks enter free agency with $26.5 million in room.
Dates to watch
June 29 has significance because of the team option of Nowitzki.
As mentioned before, the Mavericks can exercise the $5 million option or use the room to sign free agents with the goal of bringing back Nowitzki on a similar salary using the $4.4 million room exception.
On the same day, Dallas will have to decide on extending an offer sheet to McDermott ($4.3 million), Yogi Ferrell ($2.9 million), Aaron Harrison ($1.7 million) and Salah Mejri ($1.8 million).
Undrafted Maximilian Kleber, a starter in 35 games, will have his $1.4 million contract guaranteed once he is on the roster past July 15.
The Mavericks will have a July 5 decision when it comes to Dorian Finney-Smith. Injured for most of the season (after playing in 81 games in 2016-17), Finney-Smith will have a $1.5 million cap hit if he is not waived.
The third non-guaranteed contract, Kyle Collinsworth will have $100K of his $1.4 million contract guaranteed if he is not waived by July 5.
Restrictions
Dallas will have to wait until after July 1 when the new salary cap calendar starts to accept cash.
Because of the Josh McRoberts trade from Miami last July, the Mavericks have received the allotted amount ($5.1 million) allowed in a trade.
Dallas can agree to trade draft picks (either current or future) the night of the draft for money (and assets) but cannot finalize the trade until after July 6.
Barnes has an 8 percent trade bonus in his contract. The bonus is equal to $1.8 million and would be added to his $24.1 million if the small forward was traded before the start of the season.
When Nowitzki returns, either on the $5 million contract or a new salary if the Mavericks decline his option, the future Hall of Famer will have a no-trade clause in his contract.
Extension-eligible candidates
Besides Barnes, the Mavericks have four players -- Powell, Matthews, J.J. Barea and Finney-Smith -- extension eligible.
Expect the Mavericks to be passive with all four players.
The draft assets
For the first time since 1993 (Jamal Mashburn) and 1994 (Jason Kidd), Dallas will pick in the lottery for two consecutive seasons.
The question now comes down to if Dallas can draft another foundational player like Smith this June.
The Mavericks' second-round pick (No. 33) is considered an extension of the first-round based on the potential of a deep draft. Because Dallas has cap flexibility this summer, management could structure the contract of the pick similar to a player on a first-round rookie scale.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz has Dallas picking in the 2018 draft:
No. 5 (own): Mohamed Bamba | C | Texas
No. 33 (own): Melvin Frazier | SF | Tulane
The Mavericks also own all of their future first-round picks.