There is work to be done this offseason in Portland.
Despite winning 49 games and finishing third in the West, the Portland Trail Blazers suffered an unexpected ending when they were swept by the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round of the playoffs.
Now heading into an offseason with possible roster restrictions, Portland's first focus will be on the June draft, followed by free agency and the trade market one week later.
More summer focus: Click here for every team so far
The expectations of peaking too soon
It is easy to throw around the word "blowup" in Portland.
After reaching the Western Conference semifinals in 2016, Portland has been bounced out of the first round in two consecutive seasons, including an inept performance this year against New Orleans. And this team has one of the 10 highest payrolls in the league and a roster that will likely return many of the same faces.
Many consider Portland to be a good team but one that is stuck on the treadmill of having a limited upside. While the norm in the NBA today is to celebrate teams that hit the rebuild button and bottom out to focus on the lottery, teams like Portland are often criticized when winning 49 games is just not good enough.
Here's why the perception in Portland should be different.
For starters, the roster was constructed after 80 percent of the team was traded or left (like All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge) in 2015 after peaking too soon.
A team many thought would finish in the lottery won 44 games in 2015-16, defeating an injury-depleted LA Clippers team in the first round to advance to the semifinals.
The bar after that season was set too high, similar to what the Indiana Pacers will face next season.
Fast-forward to this season, and the projected win total before the season started indicated a lottery finish. Instead, the second-youngest team in the NBA would win 49 games and finish third in the West. Yes, a team that was swept in the first round overachieved.
Take a deep breath with the roster
Even with the roster overachieving this season, there are questions heading into the offseason, especially with All-Star Damian Lillard (who will turn 28 in July) in the prime of his career.
After all, it is tough to stand pat after being swept in the first round for two consecutive postseasons.
However, as I learned with Brooklyn, you shouldn't overreact about your roster after losing in the first round. When you do, it could set you back for years and turn a patient approach into a win-now mentality.
Sure, Portland could use CJ McCollum and the remaining $82 million left on his contract to shake up the roster. Moving the borderline All-Star could get you a player like Harrison Barnes or Hassan Whiteside. But filling a need at small forward or center would only leave you exposed at shooting guard.
McCollum and his backcourt partner Lillard should not be trade casualties because of the shortcomings in the playoffs this season.
How the Trail Blazers will improve is through the development of 2017 first-round pick Zach Collins, buying in to the second round, and relying on their personnel department to find the next Shabazz Napier or, in the case of the Utah Jazz, Royce O'Neale. Napier is an example of a player whom teams had given up on, and O'Neale was an undrafted player that bounced around Europe for two seasons.
That doesn't sound appealing, but it is less reckless than attaching multiple first-round picks to the contracts of Evan Turner and Meyers Leonard to try to hit a home run in a trade. Case in point: targeting Marc Gasol of the Memphis Grizzlies.
Remember that the 49 wins this season could turn into 35 and see a playoff team from the past three seasons turn into a perennial participant in the lottery.
Take advantage of their trade exceptions
It is no secret that Portland took a conservative approach last season when it came to the finances of its roster. Faced with a looming luxury tax bill, Portland traded the Allen Crabbe contract to Brooklyn, did not use its $5.2 million tax exception and took a back seat at the trade deadline, content with its current roster.
All three transactions saw the Trail Blazers stay under the luxury tax.
Now entering this offseason, the first-round playoff loss will serve as a reality check, and staying conservative like last season will likely not be repeated again this summer.
Despite roster restrictions with $112 million in guaranteed salary and the pending restricted free agency of Jusuf Nurkic, Portland has trade exceptions of $13 million and $3.5 million that can be used to acquire players. Although the exceptions cannot be combined, the two assets essentially serve as cap space to claim a player off waivers or use in a trade.
Both exceptions do come with a cost if Portland does become a luxury tax team (a likely occurrence if Nurkic is signed).
There is also a timing issue since the $13 million exception expires on July 25.
The restricted free agents
The Trail Blazers are in a familiar position compared to 2016: forced to decide on retaining their own restricted free agents.
However, while Crabbe, Leonard and Moe Harkless had the benefit of the spike in the cap as a result of the new TV agreement, this year's group will put the Trail Blazers in the luxury tax.
There is no bigger decision than what Portland elects to do with Nurkic. Portland can lose Nurkic for nothing or retain him at a substantial cost. Combined with a lukewarm free-agent market and restricted free agency, Nurkic should have a hard time registering interest from teams willing to pay $14-16 million for a center, even though he posted close to a double-double average since being acquired in February 2017 while still only 23.
However, unless there is confidence that rookie Collins is the center in waiting, signing Nurkic should be a priority. But at what cost?
At the minimum, Nurkic can look down the bench at what his teammate Leonard received in 2016: four years, $40 million as a starting point. Or Nurkic can look at the player he was traded for, Mason Plumlee, for a baseline: three years, $41 million last July in Denver.
Even if Nurkic accepted a below-average contract (an unlikely scenario), the salary in itself would push the Blazers into the tax unless they can shed contracts during the season like this past year. The Plumlee-type contract would cost Portland at the minimum $12 million in tax penalties.
As restricted free agency has taught us, expect a drawn-out process unless Nurkic is willing to sign his $4.8 million qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in 2019.
When it comes to Napier and Pat Connaughton, Portland needs to decide between priority or luxury.
Can the Blazers find their replacements in the draft or the minimum market? Or, in the case of Napier, is Wade Baldwin ready to compete for backup minutes?
Salary-cap breakdown
Already with $112 million in guaranteed contracts, Portland is $11 million below the tax threshold and will have only the $5.4 million midlevel exception available in free agency.
If Portland is going to make roster changes, then it will have to be done with a trade, either with one of its own players or using its $13 million and $3.5 million trade exceptions.
The Trail Blazers also will have the $5.3 million midlevel to use in free agency, or the $8.6 and $3.4 million nontax and biannual exception if their restricted free agents are not back.
Dates to watch
Even with the possibility of high payroll, Portland will still tender a qualifying offer to free agents Nurkic ($4.7M), Napier ($3.4M) and Connaughton ($1.8M).
The deadline on the one-year offer is June 30, and each player will become a restricted free agent starting July 1 once given the qualifying offer.
Two late-season additions, Baldwin (originally acquired as a two-way contract) and Georgios Papagiannis, have a July 19 date that would see their $1.5 million contracts for next season become guaranteed if not waived. Baldwin, signed to a regular roster contract in March, played in seven games and is an insurance policy in case Napier is not retained.
Portland also must decide by June 30 whether to guarantee the $1.5 million contract of Jake Layman. The former second-round pick played in 70 games in his first two seasons.
Waiving all three players would be more about roster spots and not savings. The $1.5 million tax hit would be similar to that of a replacement player.
Extension-eligible candidates
Earning All-NBA this season has Lillard waiting another year to become eligible for a supermax deal. To be eligible for an $185 million extension in 2019, Lillard will need to be selected All-NBA in 2018-19.
The guard is eligible for an extension this summer, but he is restricted from adding two years to the remaining three remaining on his contract. The extra two seasons (2021-22 and 2022-23) would be for a total of $80 million.
Portland also has Evan Turner, Meyers Leonard, Moe Harkless, Al Farouq-Aminu and Layman as extension-eligible players.
The draft assets
The second-youngest team in the NBA will add a first-round pick to its young core in late June.
The draft pick (and future ones) will be critical because of future roster restrictions.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Portland picking in the 2018 draft:
No. 24 (own): Dzanan Musa | SF | Cedevita
The Trail Blazers own all their future first-round selections.