The Washington Wizards are trending south.
One year removed from winning 49 games and losing in the Eastern Conference semifinals to the Boston Celtics in seven games, the Wizards saw a decrease in wins (43) and suffered a first-round exit to the Toronto Raptors.
With the Wizards now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing Washington this offseason.
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The cost associated with the product
When the Wizards' front office does a rewind of the season, they will see a team that underachieved despite having the fifth-highest payroll in the league and paying the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.
The good news is the three players who combine to earn $70 million next season -- John Wall (27 years old), Bradley Beal (24) and Otto Porter Jr. (24) -- are beginning or in the prime of their careers. Wall and Beal comprise one of the best backcourts in the NBA, and Porter complements both.
However, after playing five seasons together, the team has failed out to get past the Eastern Conference semifinals and appears to have stagnated.
Is that result a product of a lack of on-court chemistry between the three? The inability to construct a roster of role players? Or injuries, most noticeably the 41 games Wall missed this season because of a left knee injury?
While one can pick apart the relationship between Wall and Beal, the reality is both players are married to one another through at least the 2020-21 season. The Wall contract is basically untradeable based on the $37.6 million average salary and the questions about a possible recurrence with his knee. That should be a concern for prospective teams, especially since he is a year away from his super-max extension kicking in.
Beal came in at No. 8 in ESPN's top 25 NBA players under age 25 and has missed only five games over the previous two seasons after durability concerns consumed his first three seasons. The remaining $80 million on his contract is justified given the on-court results.
Which leads us to Porter. After matching the $107 million offer sheet from the Brooklyn Nets last summer, Porter is eligible to be traded in July. Could Washington's front office treat the small forward as a trade asset to balance the roster?
The answer will likely come if there is confidence (and trust) that reserve Kelly Oubre Jr. can be the starter at small forward. Oubre Jr. is eligible for extension and has seen his role increase since his rookie season. However, the small forward at times has displayed the immaturity that concerned teams when he was coming out of Kansas.
The expiring contracts
There is an exercise teams go through when it comes to turning over the roster with little flexibility known as free agency in a trade.
A team will take players on an expiring contract -- in this case, likely starting big men Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris -- and trade them for players with longer guaranteed contracts. The thinking is that because both players are set to become free agents in 2019, Washington could find their replacements through a trade since they will not have the flexibility to sign their replacements in free agency.
Where teams find themselves in trouble is the cost associated.
Washington already has $111 million guaranteed in 2019-20 with just six players under contract. Remember, that is before a possible new Oubre Jr. contract. Adding salary to the cost already committed would likely put the Wizards in the luxury tax for a third consecutive season, which is something the front office will have a hard time selling to ownership.
The question that ownership will ask is: Can we stay under the tax and find their replacements in the draft while remaining competitive?
If the answer is yes, which it should be, Washington will do its 2019 free-agent shopping in the draft and not in a trade.
Salary-cap breakdown
The Wizards front office has work to do this offseason.
Faced with a second consecutive season of being in the luxury tax in 2018-19, this time at a higher cost, Washington will have to be creative with little flexibility to improve upon its roster.
When free agency begins, Washington, barring a draft-night trade, has $127 million in guaranteed salary, which is $4 million above the tax threshold ($123 million).
The projected $6 million tax penalty projects to jump to $14.5 million if minimum-salary free agents are signed to the remaining three roster spots. Using the full tax midlevel exception would cost Washington an additional $9 million in penalties.
Washington will get tax relief when Jodie Meeks serves the remainder of his suspension. The projected tax credit will save the Wizards $500,000.
Also keep in mind the John Wall super-max extension signed last summer does not kick in until 2019-20.
The Wizards project to be over the salary cap in 2019-20 and 2020-21.
Restrictions
The two high-priced signings last summer, Wall and Porter, will have their trade restrictions lifted. Based on signing a super-max extension, Wall will have his trade restriction removed on July 26. Porter, signed to an offer sheet by Brooklyn that was eventually matched by Washington, is eligible to be traded on July 8.
Both players also have a 15 percent trade bonus in their contract. The Wall bonus is valued at $21.2 million and is the largest active bonus in the NBA. However, because the bonus would exceed the maximum allowed in the first year of his extension (2019-20), it will be reduced to a projected $5 million. The pro-rated bonus would be added to his $19 million salary for next season if he were to be traded. The bonus for Porter would be voided because it would exceed the maximum salary allowed in 2018-19.
The free-agent focus
A career year from reserve Mike Scott is likely going to cost Washington arguably its top reserve.
Scott, signed to the minimum exception last season, has non-Bird rights, and Washington will likely have to use part or all of its $5.4 million tax midlevel exception to bring him back.
The 19 games remaining from Meeks' 25-game suspension leaves the Wizards with a void coming off the bench for the first quarter of the year. Washington does get roster relief to carry a 16th player (if it keeps 15) until Meeks does return, but it comes at a per day luxury-tax penalty.
Because Washington has the minimum exception, both backup shooting guard and power forward will likely be addressed in the draft and not in free agency.
Extension-eligible candidates
Besides Oubre Jr., almost half the roster in Washington is extension eligible.
Out of the five eligible players -- Ian Mahinmi, Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, Tomas Satoransky and Jason Smith -- Satoransky would be the only player who would merit a conversation.
The draft assets
Trades to acquire Markieff Morris and Bojan Bogdanovic in previous seasons depleted the Wizards' first-round picks over the past two drafts. But after standing pat at the 2018 trade deadline, Washington will select in the first round for the first time since drafting Oubre Jr. in 2015.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Washington picking in the 2018 draft:
No. 15 (own): Robert Williams | PF/C | Texas A&M
No. 44 (own): Omari Spellman | PF | Villanova
The Wizards in the future have all their own first-round picks.