A different offseason but more of the same in New York.
Missing the playoffs once again correlates with the New York Knicks hiring a new head coach, their third search since 2014.
After agreeing to a deal with David Fizdale, New York is faced with questions ranging from the health of (and the potential extension for) Kristaps Porzingis, finding a resolution with Joakim Noah and continuing a rebuild with a top-10 selection in June.
More summer focus: Click here for every team so far
Embrace the rebuild
When New York looks back at the summer of 2016, they will see it as a missed opportunity.
Flushed with cap space from the spike in revenue from TV deals, the Knicks, like most teams, took an aggressive approach, adding veterans Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee. Add both players with Kristaps Porzingis and Carmelo Anthony, and a 32-win team in the previous season could arguably compete for a playoff a spot.
Now two years removed from the spending spree, the Knicks' win total is a minus-4 and a rebuilding team is now straddled with the $75 million left on the Lee and Noah contracts.
What the Knicks failed to realize at the time is the distinction of competing to be a top team in the Eastern Conference versus one looking to just get into the playoffs.
Now with Anthony a distant memory, New York heads into the offseason with a clear path to rebuilding:
The draft: top-10 pick and a second-rounder in the 30s.
Player development: Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr., Frank Ntilikina and Damyean Dotson.
Identifying second-chance free agents: Trey Burke and Michael Beasley.
Trade dialogue: The future of Courtney Lee.
Prioritize cap space: Take a back seat to free agency this summer.
Patience with Kristaps Porzingis
Taking a conservative approach this summer on extension talks with Porzingis should be less about the durability issues of its franchise player but more about the summer of 2019.
Yes, Porzingis continues to rehab from season-ending ACL surgery on his left knee. The injury will sideline Porzingis past the Oct. 15 deadline to extend rookies -- not to mention that he had missed 33 games before the knee injury with various ailments. However, Porzingis should be an outlier compared to previous ACL injuries.
Why the Knicks should take a backseat to extension talks has more to do about the summer of 2019.
Like Devin Booker, Porzingis' $17 million free-agent cap hold in 2019 is significantly less than his projected $27 million salary in the first year of an extension. Commit to Porzingis before the rookie deadline and the Knicks will lose $10 million in cap space, a significant amount of money for a team that projects to have $30 million-plus in room -- a figure that could increase based on the uncertain future of Noah.
Treat Joakim Noah like a free agent
Free agency for Noah is not officially until the summer of 2019.
However, with both sides at a standstill regarding the $36 million left on his deal, not to mention an untradable contract with two years left, Knicks management's best course is allowing Noah and his representatives to meet with teams starting in July as if he were a free agent looking for a new deal.
Similar to the March 1 waiver buyout, when agents shop their clients looking for a safety net with a playoff team, the same could be done with Noah. Of course, the Knicks would have to give permission, something that will occur if there is a resolution in sight.
Do not discount that Noah is on the roster for next season and with a role on the court, not sitting at home. With a new coach, plus the possibility of Enes Kanter and Kyle O'Quinn not on the roster, Noah could be the lone center.
One thing the Knicks should not entertain is waiving Noah with the intent of stretching his remaining salary over the next five seasons. As Brooklyn (Deron Williams) and Detroit (Josh Smith) have learned, allowing money to count against the cap for over five seasons limits flexibility even for short-term relief.
Summer cap breakdown
Cap space in New York will be based on two factors: the $18.6 million player option of Kanter and the $36 million owed to Noah.
If Kanter returns and there is no resolution with Noah, New York will be right at the salary cap. In theory, that could be a good problem to have for a team that is rebuilding and looking have cap flexibility in 2019, not this summer with an average -- at best -- free-agent class.
The decision on both will occur before July 1, giving the Knicks a clear direction on how to proceed in free agency.
If Kanter and O'Quinn (player option) and Noah's $18.3 million cap hit remains, New York will have $18.6 million in room.
New York has $2.4 and $1.4 million trade exceptions.
Dates to watch
What New York has available to spend in free agency will be dictated by three players: Kanter, O'Quinn and Ron Baker. All three have until the end of June to decide on their player option for the 2018-19 season.
Kanter and O'Quinn both have until June 29 to either stay in New York for another season or become unrestricted free agents. Kanter with a $18.6 million salary next season is unlikely to (and shouldn't) opt out of his contract. A lukewarm free-agent market of teams with available cap space would see Kanter take a significant pay cut if he decided to become a free agent.
O'Quinn's decision will depend on whether he could recoup his $4.3 million salary with a new team. Because cap space this summer is restricted, teams will be putting a greater premium on their exceptions (room, midlevel or tax). The one thing that O'Quinn can ill afford is opting out and losing $2 million in salary when only the minimum exception is available.
Baker, after suffering a season-ending left shoulder injury, will opt into his $4.5 million contract for 2018-19.
Two Knicks, Trey Burke and Troy Williams, have non-guaranteed contracts for 2018-19 with small guarantees if they are on the roster past Aug. 1.
Burke will have $100,000 of his $1.8 million contract guaranteed if he is not waived by July 10. Like Burke, Williams has $100,000 of his contract guaranteed, but on Aug. 1. Expect both players to be on the Knicks' roster when training camp opens in September.
Restrictions
When New York signed Tim Hardaway Jr. to a $72 million offer sheet last July they did so by adding a 15 percent trade bonus in the contract. The bonus language was added to give Atlanta less incentive to eventually match the offer sheet. Once the Hawks passed, New York would now be responsible for the additional compensation if Hardaway is eventually traded.
The bonus has decreased since the time of the signing but is still $5.3 million. The amount owed at the time of any trade would be added to the years left on the contract (not including a player option). In the case of Hardaway, that would be $20 million and $20.7 million over the next two seasons.
The free-agent focus
The decision on what Kanter and O'Quinn do with their player options will either have New York return its starter and backup center or see the team searching for replacements. Those choices won't come until closer to the draft.
For Mark Bartelstein, the agent for Kanter, three factors will come into play.
Can Kanter secure a long-term contract with New York or another team that provides security but at a lower salary ($13-14 million range)? If the answer is no, expect Kanter to opt in to his $18.3 million contract.
The summer of 2019 will come into the equation also when the cap is expected to rise from $101 million to $108 million and the teams that have cap space this summer will likely double. A good season in 2018-19 could parlay into a significant contract for Kanter.
The other question is his role under the Knicks' new coach.
For O'Quinn, the process is similar but at less of a risk.
Because of his $4.3 million salary next season, O'Quinn at the minimum should see offers in the comparable price range.
Extension-eligible candidates
Aside from Porzingis, New York is not expected to be active when it comes to players who are extension-eligible.
New York has put a high premium on cap space in 2019, and extending a player like Kanter (if he opts in) would see its flexibility become limited. Kanter could receive an extension up to $22.3 million, a salary he will not see when he becomes a free agent in 2019.
Besides Kanter, Noah, Lee, Lance Thomas and O'Quinn (if he opts in) are eligible.
The draft assets
The benefit of rebuilding is a top-10 pick in the draft.
For a second consecutive offseason, New York has the opportunity to build its roster in June.
Here are the players ESPN's Jonathan Givony projects New York will select in this year's draft:
No. 9 (own): Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
No. 36 (via Bulls): Gary Trent Jr. | G | Duke
The Knicks in the future have all of their own first-round picks.