Phoenix is in need of a culture reset.
Nearly two years removed from the turmoil of the 2015-16 season, the Suns find themselves in a familiar situation -- headed to the lottery with a new head coach.
After hiring Igor Kokoskov, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing Phoenix this offseason.
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The evaluation of the roster
How do you evaluate a team that has lost 170 games over the past three seasons, including 53 as of the end of March?
In Phoenix, that task becomes more difficult when combined with the turnover at head coach (and a new one on the horizon), the lack of meaningful games played and no true point guard for most of this season.
While there is a body of work to evaluate veterans Tyson Chandler, Troy Daniels and Jared Dudley, each player is set to be on an expiring contract and likely not part of the future.
The evaluation questions focus on the Suns' former lottery picks and guard Brandon Knight. Is the development (or lack thereof) of Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender a product of an unstable situation? Is Devin Booker a franchise player you can build a team around? Can Josh Jackson become a reliable player down the stretch of close games? Is T.J. Warren best suited playing as a combo forward? Can Knight recover from left ACL surgery?
How each question is answered will dictate which player is part of the future.
The Devin Booker extension
Despite Booker being one of the top players under the age of 25 and on the cusp of being named an All-Star, the decision to extend his contract is not as simple as it might appear.
Yes, Booker should and will receive a $157 million deal with a starting salary of $27 million. The only question will be when. This summer or in 2019?
Here is why extending is complicated.
Because the shooting guard was drafted outside of the top 10 (pick No. 13), Booker will have a $9.9 million cap hold in 2019, a projected $17 million less than where his new salary would start. With Chandler and Dudley on expiring contracts, Phoenix is poised to have $35-$40 million in cap space in 2019. Sign Booker to an extension, and that number gets sliced in half.
So what should Phoenix do? Treat Booker like a franchise player.
Sometime between when the season ends and July 1, there will need to be a meeting with McDonough, Kokoskov, Booker, and his representatives from CAA.
The Suns' goal would be to treat the meeting as if they were recruiting a franchise-level free agent in the summer. Instead of pitching Booker on why he should stay in Phoenix, explain the value of how holding off on a new contract would be beneficial to the team. In the presentation, it is critical for Phoenix to show Booker and his representatives a salary-cap breakdown in 2019 and the free-agent targets. Allowing Booker to be part of the process of building the Suns and not a bystander is critical in building trust between both sides.
Under contract in 2018-19
Like many rebuilding teams, Phoenix can go in multiple directions with cap flexibility.
Over the salary cap when free agency begins, the Suns would need to renounce their own free agents (Elfrid Payton and Alex Len), waive Alan Williams and look to move one of their expiring contracts (most noticeably Chandler) to create optimal cap space ($25-$30 million).
However, with a new coach and still in the early stages of putting a competitive team together, Phoenix should not be a buyer in July.
Dates to watch
Decisions to retain the four non-guaranteed contracts -- Alan Williams, Tyler Ulis, Davon Reed and Shaquille Harrison -- should be about roster flexibility and the role of each player moving forward, compared to the ability to create space. The four players combine to earn $9.1 million in salary next season.
Ulis, the rookie of the month last April, heads into the third year of a $5.4 million contract. The 2016 second-round pick has a June 24 date where his $1.5 million contract becomes guaranteed. Although Ulis has played 126 games, including 53 starts, Phoenix needs to consider if there is a better alternative in free agency or in the draft. Ulis had a player efficiency rating (PER) this season of 8.79, which is below average, and the Suns posted a 93.5 offensive and 114.7 defensive rating with him on the floor, per NBA Advanced Stats. The argument to keep Ulis is that he's only 22, he could carry upside with a new coaching staff, and he has a $3.1 million salary (2018-19 and 2019-20).
While a decision on Ulis has to occur right after the draft, Phoenix has until July 6 -- the day the moratorium ends -- to guarantee Williams' $5.5 million contract. That gives management a buffer to determine if cap space is needed. Williams played in his first game of the season on Monday after undergoing right knee surgery before training camp. It's likely that Williams is on the roster past July 6.
Like Williams, rookie Davon Reed had knee surgery before the start of camp and missed 43 games. Since returning, he has split time between the G League and the NBA. With $689,000 of Reed's $1.3 million contract guaranteed, Phoenix will have until June 30 to guarantee the remaining salary. Expect a decision to be made on Reed after the draft. Harrison, signed to a three-year contract in March, has $50,000 of his $1.4 million guaranteed if he is on the roster past Aug. 1. The remaining salary is non-guaranteed.
Besides deciding to retain their non-guaranteed players, Phoenix has until June 29 to tender point guard Elfrid Payton a $4.7 million qualifying offer and make him a restricted free agent. Acquired at the trade deadline from Orlando, Payton has started 16 games and is best suited coming off the bench.
Extension-eligible candidates
Besides Booker, the Suns have five players who are extension-eligible.
However, none of the players, including Knight, Dudley, Chandler, Daniels and Ulis (if he is not waived) will see a new contract.
The draft assets
The youngest team in the NBA will see its youth movement continue this June with multiple draft picks.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Phoenix picking in the 2018 draft:
No. 1 (own): Deandre Ayton | C | Arizona
No. 16 (via Miami): Zhaire Smith | SF | Texas-Tech
No. 31 (own): Jalen Brunson | G | Villanova
No. 59 (via Toronto): Kostas Antetokounmpo | SF | Dayton
Besides their own first-round picks in future years, Phoenix also has a 2021 unprotected first from Miami as part of the Goran Dragic trade and a protected first-rounder from Milwaukee in 2019 (Bucks keep the pick if Nos. 1-3 and Nos. 17-30). That Bucks pick will roll over to 2020 (top-seven protected) and then be unprotected in 2021.