- Close
ESPN- NBA draft analyst and writer
Joined ESPN.com in July 2017
Founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams
The college basketball regular season is over, and after bowing out in the conference tournaments, quite a few players already have seen their careers come to a close, with many more about to do the same.
This is a wild time in the NBA scouting world, with executives jetting from game to game and tournament site to tournament site trying to get one last look at the group of prospects that will make up the 2018 draft class. Not every NBA executive has "gotten eyes" on every player at this stage, especially not the late risers outside of the lottery, while other players haven't been seen extensively since the early part of the season. A huge contingent of NBA teams congregating on mostly the same tournament sites (especially this past weekend in New York for the Big Ten tournament) makes it very convenient to get a pulse on what executives are thinking about this draft class as a whole. It has caused a bit of a shake-up in our top 100 as we realized that some players are likely to be drafted much higher or lower than what we had projected.
With that in mind, here are a few players whose draft stock has moved up or down since the last time we checked in on our Top 100.
Deandre Ayton | Arizona
7-0 | Fr. | C
Overall ranking: No. 1
All the turmoil around Arizona seems only to have lit a fire underneath Ayton, and he has responded with arguably the best two games of his season in the past 10 days.
After canvassing most of the league in recent weeks, there seems to be somewhat of a consensus forming around Ayton as the "safe pick" at No. 1. Which team ends up getting the pick will obviously play a role, but Ayton's sheer productivity combined with his freakish physical tools are making it increasingly difficult to keep Luka Doncic up top, especially after a somewhat lackluster month of February by his standards.
For a more detailed look at Ayton's strengths, weaknesses, background and more, make sure you check out our deep dive on the Bahamas native from two weeks ago. --Jonathan Givony
Jacob Evans | Cincinnati
6-6 | Jr. |SG/SF
Overall ranking: No. 24
Although he's posting similar numbers to last season as a 20-year-old junior, Evans is steadily improving his stock thanks to his impact on a winning Cincinnati team that has emerged as a legitimate Final Four contender. We evaluated Evans live in a hostile Charles Koch Center on Sunday as the Bearcats defeated Wichita State on the road to secure the AAC regular-season title. Evans played a big part in the Cincinnati win, scoring 19 points on 16 shots, snaring seven boards and proving his worth as a multipositional defender.
Evans' game doesn't pop off the hardwood, but at 6-foot-6, 210 pounds with a 6-9-plus wingspan, a smooth catch-and-shoot stroke, defensive versatility and a strong feel for the game, he's the type of prospect teams may target in the late first round of the 2018 draft.
"I feel like I bring versatility," Evans told ESPN. "I can shoot the ball at a high rate. I can defend. I can also play-make. That's underestimated. I always try to be a great defender. Being 6-6 and playing on the wing I try to be able to guard multiple guards, and also I'm able to handle the ball at my height. I feel like the more games we play, high-level teams, the rest of the season I'm going to show that."
Tony Carr hits a cold-blooded 3-pointer late in the game for Penn State.
March performances can often unfairly skew an overall evaluation, but for a potential role players like Evans, proving how he can contribute to winning deep into the NCAA tournament could certainly continue to boost his stock.
Evans has come a long way since arriving in Cincinnati as a "little chubby 17-year-old kid, wide-eyed, wanting to learn," according to the Louisiana native who comes from a football family and military background. The former RSCI No. 125 recruit has made incremental improvements every season, and he is playing more on the ball as a junior, regularly initiating offense in the half court. Evans grew up playing on the ball since he first started taking basketball seriously in eighth grade, and that shows in his feel for the game and sound overall court vision.
"I try to study everybody," Evans said. "I don't want to just be a shooter. I don't want to just be a rebounder or a defender. I want to be a basketball player. Basketball player you gotta be able to dribble, pass, shoot and defend and also rebound."
While the improved on-ball skill is a plus (17.9 percent of his offense coming in pick-and roll, according to Synergy), Evans figures to make the most impact at the NBA level as a spot shooter and defender in the 3-and-D mold. He can be a bit streaky as a shooter, but he has excellent balance and rotation on his jumper, which has shown in his 40.9 3-point percentage on 4.4 attempts per game, his second consecutive season over 40 percent. Evans also can make occasional isolation pull-ups against switches, but he plays mostly at one speed and isn't the most dynamic shot creator or finisher, as evident by his 47.9 2-point percentage.
Defensively, Evans is tough and competitive, with the lateral quickness to guard 2s and some 1s, and the frame to check big wings as well. His size, length and strength allow him to slide up in smaller lineups and guard 3s and 4s without too much of an issue, which gives him great versatility in today's NBA. The Bearcats rank second in the NCAA in defensive efficiency according to Kenpom.com, and Evans figures to carry that with him at the next level.
"My dad, he was in the military. Discipline, that was key," Evans said. "I love coaches like [Mick Cronin], being tough on you. That brings the best out of you, especially if you can be strong-minded." --Mike Schmitz
Moritz Wagner | Michigan
6-11 | Jr. | C
Overall ranking: No. 55
Wagner led Michigan to a second straight Big Ten tournament championship, scoring 63 points in 94 minutes over the course of four games, winning MVP honors in the process. His skill level was vividly on display during that run, as he's one of the most polished big men you'll find in all of college basketball in terms of his ability to stretch the floor, straight-line drive, score out of pick-and-rolls and operate with his back to the basket. Wagner proved to be a matchup nightmare for opposing coaches with one of the best offensive minds in college basketball pulling the strings from the sidelines.
After a very poor showing at last year's NBA draft combine, Wagner came into this season looking to address some of his shortcomings from a pro perspective. He has packed significant mass onto his frame and improved as a defensive rebounder, going from averaging a horrendous 5.2 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes as a sophomore to a very solid 9.0 as a junior. His lack of length, inability to cover ground on the perimeter and poor overall awareness continues to limit him as a defender on the whole, as he's not much of a rim protector, struggles to step outside of the paint and remains extremely prone to foul on top of that, not always knowing how to channel his energy in a positive way.
Despite his limitations, and the diminishing market for players his size, there's still a role in today's NBA for a highly skilled big man who can space the floor and plays with a competitive spirit. Wagner is young for a junior, not turning 21 until the end of April, so he has time to continue to improve considering he was already a late bloomer to begin with. He'd likely get picked somewhere in the second round if he decided to keep his name in the draft but also could benefit from coming back for his senior year and continuing to work on his weaknesses, namely his defense, passing and overall feel for the game. --Givony
Tony Carr | Penn State
6-4½ | So. | PG/SG
Overall ranking: No. 42
Carr was the star of the first two days of the Big Ten tournament, scoring 50 points with 12 rebounds and 9 assists, but he hit a roadblock in the semifinals against Purdue and showed his weaknesses in glaring fashion, shooting 4-of-18 from the field.
NBA scouts we spoke to were firmly split on his prospects at the next level, with his supporters pointing to his excellent size (6-4½ in shoes), length (6-8 wingspan), scoring instincts (23 points per 40) and tremendous shot-making prowess (46 percent from 3 on the season). At the same time, Carr's detractors question whether he is actually a point guard or a small 2, and his historically poor 2-point percentage (39.6 percent career) is a massive red flag that raises huge question marks about his ability to create his own shot and finish with touch at the NBA level. An average ball handler who is not blessed with a great first step, Carr is heavily reliant on overdribbling, pushing off and taking advantage of his superior size and strength advantage at the college level, mostly looking for his own shot and often only passing to teammates as a last resort. His jump shot is extremely unconventional, bringing the ball up from his waist and releasing it from a very low vantage point, which slows his mechanics down significantly. He has terrific potential defensively, but rarely elects to full apply himself on that end of the floor, and his poor body language was a major turnoff to many scouts as well.
With Penn State appearing to be on the outside looking in of making the NCAA tournament, Carr would likely benefit from returning for his junior season and addressing his weaknesses while showing he can contribute to winning basketball, but he'd get quite a few workouts and looks in the second round if he decided to keep his name in the draft. --Givony
Carsen Edwards | Purdue
6-1 | So. | PG/SG
Overall ranking: No. 76
The breakout 19-year-old Purdue sophomore helped establish himself as a legitimate NBA prospect in front of scouts and executives in New York, averaging 21.6 points per game in 35 minutes over the course of three contests. Edwards struggled in the Big Ten title game against Michigan guard Zavier Simpson and finished the tournament shooting 7-of-22 inside the arc, but his electric scoring, versatile shot-making (12-of-26 from 3) and combination of length, strength and quickness caught the eye of NBA scouts.
Although on the shorter side at a generous 6-1 in shoes, Edwards has a bowling-ball frame at around 200 pounds and a 6-5 wingspan, which gives him more than enough strength and length to survive as a change-of-pace scoring guard at the NBA level. The majority of Edwards' intrigue revolves around his shot-making, which has allowed him to become one of only 10 under-20 players in the NCAA to average more than 25 points per 40 minutes on the nation's No. 3 offense, according to Kenpom.com. He gets excellent elevation on his jumper and is equally comfortable stepping into spot-ups, sprinting off of screens and rising into pull-up jumpers. Among NCAA players with at least 125 pull-up attempts, Edwards ranks seventh in efficiency (first among high major conference players), according to Synergy Sports. He plays with neverending confidence, for better or for worse, and has the bucket-getter mentality that we're seeing more of from backup NBA guards. On the season, Edwards is averaging an impressive 25.5 points per 40 on 52.7 percent from 2 and 41.6 percent from 3, building on a strong summer as a member of the Under-19 World Championships squad and the Purdue team that competed in the World University games.
Despite his big weekend and impressive productivity, Edwards still has room to improve as a facilitator, as he's much more of a scorer at this stage. His quickness and ability to shoot off the bounce should allow him to become a dynamic pick-and-roll player at the NBA level, and his threat to score will surely open up playmaking options even if he has a score-first mentality. Becoming a more efficient finisher (48.2 percent), and more specifically adding a reliable bail-out floater (3-for-16), will be important for Edwards as he transitions to the NBA. He'll also need to become a more disciplined defender. He has the feet and physicality to shed screens and contain penetration, and the length to contest, but his effort level waivers on that end of the floor. Edwards should improve when challenged more with less of a scoring burden. Edwards is the type of confident, dynamic scorer that generally thrives in March, and he figures to only continue improving his draft profile with a deep tournament run.
Edwards is starting to look more and more like a legitimate first-round option for the 2019 draft, following a similar trajectory to a guard like UCLA's Aaron Holiday, who has become a hot name with his play as a junior. With current senior P.J. Thompson graduating this spring, not to mention frontcourt starters Dakota Mathias, Vincent Edwards and Isaac Haas, the ball will be in Edwards' hands quite a bit next season. --Schmitz
Devon Hall | Virginia
6-5 | Sr. | SG
Overall ranking: No. 81
Another accomplished upperclassman on one of the best defensive teams in America, Hall could become a popular option either in the second round or as an undrafted free agent.
The 6-5 senior is the unquestioned leader of the nation's top team, and Virginia coaches rave about his business-like mentality, toughness and poise. We scouted Hall live in the KFC Yum Center against Louisville, a wild game that the Cavaliers stole after trailing by four points with just 0.9 seconds remaining. Hall's intense on-court leadership stood out over the course of 40 minutes as he regularly communicated defensive coverages, quarterbacked offensive sets, held teammates accountable and picked them up during times of distress. Hall is the exact type of personality NBA teams will want in their locker room, and he fills a coveted positional role as well.
The strong-framed guard is shooting a career-best 44.7 percent from 3 on 4.8 attempts per 40 minutes and brings physicality and grit to the other end of the floor as a two-position defender. While maybe not the shooter his percentages suggest, he sports a compact release with sound rotation that he's comfortable unleashing when set or operating off the many pin-downs that head coach Tony Bennett employs. In addition to his spot shooting, Hall functions as Virginia's point guard for stretches thanks to his impressive feel for the game. He's not a dynamic athlete and is a bit stumpy physically, lacking great stride length, but he's sure-handed with the ball, comfortable making basic pick-and-roll reads, and can find teammates with either hand on the move. Hall is one of only eight NCAA players with an assist-to-turnover ratio better than 3.3-1, and he leads the ESPN Top 100 in that category. He has right and left-handed floaters in the paint and has improved his skill level quite a bit during his four years with the Cavaliers.
Hall's upside is a bit limited by his so-so athleticism, lack of wiggle with the ball and below-average extension around the rim with an average 6-6 wingspan, all of which has played a role in his career 43.7 2-point percentage. He's not the most polished pull-up shooter (37th percentile, according to Synergy), and it remains to be seen how he'll look in a more ball-screen heavy NBA that requires guards in his mold to play second-side pick-and-roll. While an excellent collegiate defender, his tools are average for the NBA level, and he'll have to get by more on sheer will than pure physical gifts. With that said, Hall is the type of player who will surely maximize his potential and could garner even more buzz if Virginia can make the Final Four. --Schmitz