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          Scouting the best NBA draft prospects in Duke-UNC

          Where does Marvin Bagley III's draft stock stand heading into the ACC tournament? Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
          • Mike SchmitzMar 4, 2018, 10:00 AM ET

          NBA scouts want to see how top prospects perform in pressure-packed situations, and there's no more hostile environment in college basketball than Duke vs. North Carolina at Cameron Indoor Stadium. With that in mind, we attended the game to evaluate the top NBA prospects and get a better feel for where they stand heading into the ACC tournament, which starts Tuesday.

          Basketball powerhouses Duke and UNC currently have 37 rostered NBA players between them. Let's take a look at eight prospects from these two teams who could be next to make the jump.

          Marvin Bagley III | 6-foot-11 | PF/C

          Top 100 ranking: No. 5

          Stat line: 21 points, 15 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 assist, 3 turnovers, 8-for-12 2P, 1-for-2 3P in 33 minutes

          After a forgettable first half that featured an airballed 3, missed jump hooks, travels in the post and so-so defensive effort in Duke's zone, Bagley turned in a monster second half, energizing the Blue Devils on their way to a come-from-behind win. Bagley did most of his damage by way of sheer effort and athleticism, punishing Theo Pinson and smaller North Carolina lineups around the rim with lob finishes, and multiple-effort putbacks on his way to an efficient 9-for-14 shooting night. He knocked down a trail 3 with great fluidity, moving him to 36 percent from distance on 50 attempts this season.

          He's having a historically productive season and is the only player ever in our database to average at least 25 points and 13 rebounds per 40 minutes while shooting better than 60 percent from 2 and 35 percent from 3 (50 attempts minimum). Seeing him step up in big moments sits well with NBA scouts, and he's surely looking more and more like a lock to get drafted in the top 5 come June.

          Still, it remains to be seen just how well Bagley's scoring, and particularly his efficiency, will translate to the NBA level. His so-so feel for the game, lacking off hand and good-but-not-great overall touch really showed for stretches on Saturday night. His decision-making isn't at that high of a level when in traffic, and he does most of his damage in the paint (converting 74.8 percent of his shots at the rim), where he won't be as extraordinary physically in the NBA as he is in college. It was tough to evaluate Bagley defensively in Duke's zone, but his limitations on that end (average length, awareness and effort) are a big reason why the Blue Devils went to a zone in the first place. Bagley has excellent feet overall, and the hope is that teams can just switch everything with him and he can add value in that sense, which is certainly possible.

          Some scouts question how much Bagley impacts winning and whether he can make his teammates better (Duke went 4-0 when he sat out because of injury). Bagley's long-term upside likely hinges upon the type of shooter and passer he can become. While capable (1.091 points per possession on 33 catch-and-shoot jumpers), he shoots the ball with a slight side spin and can stand to speed up his release. His position is also a question, as he functions somewhat more as a modern 5 offensively but is likely best as a 4 defensively.

          It's easy to nitpick Bagley, but his incredible production despite not being the most polished offensive player is extremely impressive, and he figures to thrive in an up-and-down NBA system with a spaced floor.

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          Bagley throws it down in the paint

          Marvin Bagley III makes a nice move in the post and finishes with a two-handed slam.

          Wendell Carter Jr. | 6-10 | PF/C

          Top 100 ranking: No. 8

          Stat line: 9 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, 3 assists, 3 turnovers, 5 fouls, 3-for-6 2P, 1-for-1 3P in 25 minutes

          Carter had a bit of a frustrating night, fouling out in 25 minutes at the mercy of a tight whistle from the officials, but he showed how truly impactful he can be across the board even when he's not having a huge night, which is part of the reason some scouts view him as a potential top-5 pick and arguably Duke's best NBA prospect.

          Carter had a major impact on the glass, attacking offensive boards at the highest point and snaring defensive rebounds outside of his area with good timing and strong hands. He showed his impressive feel for the game, almost always making the simple kick-out pass out of the post or finding Bagley accurately with high-low feeds. He protected the rim with verticality and timing when UNC knifed past Duke's first line of defense, and he even drilled a timely spot 3 late in the game with impressive balance and mechanics.

          Carter is the only player in the NCAA to average at least 20 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and three steals per 40 minutes. Only three other players have achieved that feat, according to our DraftExpress database: Tim Duncan (twice), Derrick Coleman and Jason Thompson, with only Duncan matching Carter's true shooting percentage of 64.0. Carter has proved willing to play second fiddle to the ultra-aggressive Bagley, and he has the type of versatile, well-rounded game that will fit in any system next to virtually any big.

          It remains to be seen how well Carter can defend in space at the NBA level, as he doesn't project as a switch big, which should force him to spend most of his time at center. Carter could also play with more aggressiveness, as he tends to fade into the background at times. But with the success of power forward/centers such as Al Horford in today's NBA, Carter has very little bust-ability and is one of the higher-floor prospects in the draft.

          Grayson Allen | 6-4 | SG

          Top 100 ranking: No. 30

          Stat line: 15 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals, 6 turnovers, 3-for-7 2P, 2-for-7 3P in 40 minutes

          Allen closed out his Cameron career the same way he started it as a freshman -- playing with tremendous energy and a competitive edge that scouts fell in love with. He was pressing badly early on, trying to do too much and clearly putting tremendous pressure on himself. He committed a handful of avoidable turnovers and failed to cash in on a few open looks. But as the game progressed, Allen's fiery personality emerged and played a big part in Duke pulling away. He showed excellent anticipation in the passing lanes (five steals) at the top of Duke's zone, flashed his explosiveness in space, worked to get others involved while on the ball and eventually made a couple of triples down the stretch to help Duke pull away.

          Allen brings infectious energy when it's channeled correctly, and it's easy to envision him carving out a role as an energy bench scorer who knocks down shots, gets downhill in space and facilitates out of second-side ball screens. Allen is not that long, a bit heavy-footed in traffic, oddly streaky as a shooter despite sound mechanics and wildly inconsistent in part because of the stress he tends to play with when things aren't going his way. But the 22-year-old has overcome a fair amount of adversity during his four years in college, and he's more or less trending in the right direction in March, averaging 17.2 points, 5.0 assists and 3.1 steals over his past 10 games on 56.1 percent from 2 and 33.7 percent from 3. Should Allen lead the Blue Devils to a deep NCAA tournament run, he could certainly play his way into a late-first-round selection come June.

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          Allen drains the open 3

          Grayson Allen uses the screen to perfection and hits the 3-pointer.

          Trevon Duval | 6-3 | PG

          Top 100 ranking: No. 40

          Stat line: 7 points, 6 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, 0 turnovers, 2-for-3 2P, 1-for-1 3P in 21 minutes

          Coming off the bench for only the third time this season (and the second consecutive game), Duval played a big part in Duke's second-half surge and eventual victory. He drilled an open spot 3, broke down UNC's perimeter defense and spoon-fed teammates with drop-offs and lobs while committing zero turnovers for the first time since Nov. 29. Duval also defended with activity and certainly gave the Blue Devils a lift after a dysfunctional first half, which he contributed to by missing three free throws and struggling to get into much of a rhythm. Duval is at his best when he's able to get a piece of the paint and either kick out to shooters or find bigs such as Bagley and Carter.

          Aside from his second-half glimpse, it's been a tough year for Duval relative to expectations, especially as of late with the RSCI No. 6 recruit being demoted to the bench. In the 10 games prior to the UNC contest, Duval was averaging only 8.5 points, 3.8 assists and 2.9 turnovers in 29.1 minutes. His lack of a perimeter jumper and overall half-court scoring had been hurting Duke's half-court attack, and it's a big reason why he's seen as a second-round prospect among NBA scouts. Saturday's performance was definitely a step in the right direction.

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          Duval gets the steal and score

          Trevon Duval makes a nice play and finishes on the other end plus the foul for Duke.

          Gary Trent Jr. | 6-6 | SG

          Top 100 ranking: No. 52

          Stat line: 13 points, 5 rebounds, 2-for-6 2P, 3-for-10 3P in 36 minutes

          Trent made some timely 3s down the stretch to help put Duke ahead, but overall he showed many of the warts that have kept him from being considered a one-and-done-level prospect despite his positional size and shooting. Finishing the game 5-of-16 from the field, Trent's below-average feel for the game and shot-happy mentality was evident over the course of the evening. He regularly frustrated teammates by over-dribbling, settling for contested pull-ups and missing simple reads that NBA-level role players need to be able to make.

          When Trent keeps it simple, he looks like a future NBA bench wing. He can spot shoot (42.9 percent from 3 on 194 attempts), operate off pindowns, get to quick-action one-dribble pull-ups and finish with floaters at times, all while standing 6-6, and 215 pounds with a 6-8½ wingspan. He has strong scoring instincts, and his never-ending confidence does help him at times when Duke needs a big shot late in games.

          However, he's an underwhelming athlete, a minus defensively at the collegiate level and quite clunky as a ball handler and shot-creator. He struggles to finish in the paint (41.1 2-point percentage) and will likely be a bit one-dimensional at the NBA level. That's certainly not a dealbreaker, but he'll have to become a much better decision maker and more disciplined defender to earn the trust of NBA coaches.

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          Trent sends the Cameron Crazies into a frenzy

          Gary Trent Jr. nails the triple to cap a 9-0 Duke run and give the Blue Devils the lead.

          Alex O'Connell | 6-6 | SG

          Stat line: 3 points, 2 rebounds, 0-for-1 2P, 1-for-3 3P in 14 minutes

          O'Connell didn't have a huge impact, but it's worth discussing his long-term potential as an athletic, energetic 2-guard who can spot shoot, attack a closeout with long strides and make basic reads with a solid feel. He is Duke's second-youngest player and a late bloomer who is still growing into his body. Duke's coaching staff is extremely high on O'Connell's potential, although it may take him some time to maximize it and put his talent on display with such a loaded recruiting class coming in next season. O'Connell needs to improve his body considerably and his lack of length (6-5 wingspan) isn't ideal, but he could develop into a more legitimate NBA draft prospect over the course of the next couple of years.

          Cameron Johnson | 6-8 | SF

          Stat line: 16 points, 4 rebounds, 1-for-5 2P, 4-for-12 3P in 35 minutes

          Johnson had an up-and-down night, pacing the Tar Heels in the first half with spot 3 after spot 3 yet failing to capitalize on a handful of open looks in the second. Although he has the mechanics of a high-level shooter, Johnson crumbled a bit down the stretch and failed to show much versatility when run off his spots or asked to put the ball on the floor. Johnson's lack of explosiveness and physicality as a shot creator and finisher showed. Searching for more ways to impact the game when his jumper isn't falling with be key for Johnson's future as a potential NBA role player.

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          Johnson runs the floor and throws it down

          UNC's Joel Berry finds Cameron Johnson streaking down the floor. Grayson Allen attempts to foul to stop the play, but Johnson is too fast and scores the fast-break jam.

          Theo Pinson | 6-6 | SF

          Stat line: 12 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 turnovers, 6-for-9 2P, 0-for-1 3P in 33 minutes

          Pinson put together a solid night operating mostly from the high post against Duke's zone, using his impressive court vision to connect on high-low passes while dropping in a few floaters in the paint. The 22-year-old senior added value on the backboards as well, chasing down a handful of loose balls and bringing toughness to the floor. Tasked with defending Bagley for long stretches, Pinson did what he could to hold his own but was at a clear size disadvantage. When guarding the perimeter, Pinson showed his defensive potential at 6-6 with a 6-11 wingspan.

          He hasn't progressed as a scorer/shooter like most scouts had hoped -- career 11.2 points per 40 on 49.7 percent from 2 and 25.9 percent from 3 -- but it's not out of the question that Pinson finds a way to stick down the road as a slash-and-pass-style wing.

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          Pinson gets the tough shot to go

          Theo Pinson takes the contact and still sinks the difficult shot.

          Although he's a very limited scorer and his decision making can be erratic at times, Pinson can operate as a pseudo point guard, initiating offense in the half court and transition. If a team feels it can rehabilitate Pinson's floundering jump shot, he could be worth a look.