While Kentucky, Duke, Kansas and a handful of other high major programs keep reeling in five-star recruits and churning out one-and-done lottery picks, head coach Jay Wright and Villanova have taken a more steady approach, grooming three- and four-year college players into prospects with the potential to become longtime NBA contributors.
The Wildcats have made the NCAA tournament in 12 of the past 13 seasons with players such as Josh Hart, Dante Cunningham, Randy Foye and Darrun Hilliard carving out NBA roles, and Kyle Lowry taking the long route from 24th overall pick to eventual All-Star point guard on the top team in the Eastern Conference. Ryan Arcidiacono (four-year starter) is on the NBA fringe on a two-way contract with the Bulls, and even former Wildcats wing James Bell could work his way back onto the NBA radar as he develops with David Blatt's club, Darussafaka, in Turkey.
Wright plays a modern brand of basketball that features small lineups, switchy defensive schemes and an efficient offensive attack that has the team ranked first in offensive efficiency, according to Kenpom.com. If there's one NCAA coach best suited to make the NBA jump eventually, it's likely Wright. Wright has a few more potential NBA role players on this roster, headlined by rangy wing Mikal Bridges.
Here's a look at Bridges, potential national player of the year Jalen Brunson and a couple of Wildcats who could develop into future draft options:
Mikal Bridges | 6-foot-7 | 200 pounds
Mikal Bridges getting shots up. The 21-year-old wing and potential lottery pick has made a big jump this season, especially as a shooter. Impressive physically at 6-7 with a 7-2 wingspan. 3 and D style prospect. pic.twitter.com/t7RDA95lPL
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) February 24, 2018
NBA value: High-floor defender plus spot shooter
Bridges has helped himself in a big way this season, boosting his scoring average from 9.8 points to 17.2 while doubling his 3-point makes per game and increasing his 3-point percentage from 39.3 to 41.9. Of the top wing prospects in this year's draft, Bridges likely has the highest floor thanks to his tools, production, winning impact, defense and spot shooting.
Bridges figures to play a similar role in the NBA that he plays at Villanova, which is part of what makes him such an easy fit at the next level. It's his perimeter defense that will earn him minutes early on in his NBA career, as he can check multiple positions thanks to his length, feet and effort level. At 6-7, 200 pounds with a 7-2 wingspan and an 8-8 standing reach, Bridges has physical similarities to Kelly Oubre Jr., Wesley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. He's one of only four players in the ESPN Top 100 to average at least 2.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per 40 minutes.
Unbelievable game here in Omaha between Villanova and Creighton. This monster block from Mikal Bridges sends it to overtime. pic.twitter.com/Now5HA4JWV
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) February 24, 2018
He can be a bit jumpy defensively and can stand to improve his physicality, but Bridges' defense is a perfect fit in the modern NBA, as he figures to be able to guard up to three positions and even slide up to the small-ball 4 some as he fills out physically.
Offensively, Bridges stays in his lane, adding value as a transition finisher, spot shooter, straight-line slasher and cutter. He plays an extremely efficient game, ranking 31st in the NCAA in half-court scoring efficiency, according to Synergy Sports. He scores 1.367 points per possession on catch-and-shoot jumpers (93rd percentile) and finishes 64.9 percent of his shots at the rim (89th percentile). He rarely breaks offensive flow, and his long strides to the rim should bode well in a more open NBA game. Bridges is a two-way role starter who will be comfortable playing off of more ball-dominant stars.
Question marks: Offensive limitations?
While Bridges' floor is extremely high, his ceiling may be a bit limited as he's still quite rigid with the ball and not the most dynamic offensive player. He can be somewhat mechanical in his movements, and isn't the type of wing who is going to be overly productive as a second-side pick-and-roll ball-handler. Although extremely efficient across the board, Bridges is scoring only 0.75 points per possession on pull-up jumpers (40 attempts), and looks unnatural rising up off the bounce at times. This has been a trend throughout Bridges' career, as he scored only 0.636 PPP on pull-ups last season (22 attempts). It also remains to be seen how his catch-and-shoot 3-ball will translate to the NBA line, as he doesn't have the quickest or most traditional mechanics. He's greatly improved the speed of his release, and it's hard to argue with the results, but Bridges has benefited from the space that comes along with playing a fair amount of four, and he's not the type of shooter that sprints off of staggers and rises into NBA 3s with ease. Although he stays in his lane, he's also not the most advanced playmaker out there.
There's little bust-ability with Bridges, however, and his two-way impact and offensive improvement are certainly attractive.
Jalen Brunson | 6-foot-3 | 200 pounds
In Omaha for Creighton-Villanova. Junior PG Jalen Brunson getting shots up. Brunson and Mikal Bridges were the first ones on the floor two hours before the game. Impressive energy from the Nova walk-ons and support staff. pic.twitter.com/n8wBy9MCrA
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) February 24, 2018
NBA value: second/third point guard
Although not overly long or dynamic athletically, Brunson is a legitimate player of the year candidate, and it's hard to ignore his pedigree and production thus far. A two-time Illinois Basketball Player of the Year, 2015 FIBA under-19 World Championships MVP, the starting point guard for the 2016 national championship team as a freshman and the son of former pro Rick Brunson, the 21-year-old checks a lot of boxes from an intangibles standpoint. Brunson is the only player in the ESPN Top 100 to average at least 20.0 points and 5.0 assists per-40 minutes while posting a true shooting percentage of at least 65.0.
Brunson has the body type of a taller Jameer Nelson, and the measurables of TJ McConnell. He ranks in the 97th percentile in half-court scoring efficiency, according to Synergy Sports, as he does an excellent job of using his strength and deception to get to his spots, while keeping the defense honest by knocking down 41.3 percent of his triples. He likes to shoot over smaller guards in midrange spots, and even operate in the post a fair amount, where he's scoring 1.294 PPP (99th percentile). Brunson is a low-mistake player with a 2.86 assist-to-turnover ratio and a 92-13 record as a Wildcat. He plays with poise as pressure heightens, and can make most basic pick-and-roll reads necessary to run an offense. Although in a different mold, the success of guards like McConnell, Fred VanVleet, Frank Mason and Tyus Jones certainly helps Brunson, as he's the type of uber-productive winning guard who could carve out a career in the NBA as a second or third point guard, even with more teams opting for scoring punch at that spot.
Question marks: How does he translate?
Even with all of Brunson's productivity, it's fair to wonder how his game will translate to the NBA level. He's not overly dynamic with the ball, or all that explosive at the rim. He doesn't have the defensive chops of a McConnell or the ball screen reads of Jones at the same age, as he has more of a score-first mentality. Although he's an extremely efficient pick-and-roll player at the college level (97th percentile), he doesn't quite have the burst to put pressure on the rim in the half court or the dynamic shot-making to keep defenders on their heels. Brunson plays at his own pace, and a lot of his buckets are a product of his size and physicality, regularly killing his dribble in the paint, pivoting and finding a crevice for a short jumper. While he'll benefit from NBA spacing, will he be able to score as efficiently as he has in the NCAA against longer athletes? Can he add more finesse finishes (only six floater attempts) to combat NBA length?
Brunson runs the show with poise, but he's not overly vocal. He plays with his head down at times, a lot of his assists are system-related, and he has room to become a more savvy pick-and-roll player, finding additional ways to manipulate defenses and use both sides of the floor. Brunson will be tested defensively at the NBA level as well, as he's not the quickest-twitch athlete you'll find. He does understand team defense and is willing to find a body on the glass or help off the ball, but his margin for error is slim given his lack of length and elite quickness.
With all that said, we've seen guards like Brunson underestimated time and time again, and it's not out of the question that an NBA team falls in love with his productivity and intangibles should he decide to stay in the 2018 draft.
Who's next?
Donte DiVincenzo: As ESPN's Jonathan Givony outlined in his 2019 mock draft write-up, DiVincenzo is emerging as a legitimate NBA draft prospect, posting per-40-minute numbers of 18.8 points, 6.3 rebound, 4.4 assists and 1.8 steals while shooting 59.0 percent on 2-pointers and 40.1 percent on 3-pointers.
21-year-old Nova guard Donte Divincenzo has emerged as an NBA prospect with his play this season. The Delaware native showed out this summer at Adidas Nations. 6-4.5, strong frame, tough, shoots it, has a feel. pic.twitter.com/iRxcf6U0yj
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) February 24, 2018
The 21-year-old Delaware native is a strong-framed combo guard with a versatile shooting stroke, sound athleticism, a solid feel for the game and a competitive streak on the defensive end. DiVincenzo fits the Villanova mold and could be the next guard to exceed expectations at the NBA level, likely when the 2019 NBA draft rolls around.
Eric Paschall: Although he hasn't been overly productive in his two years at Villanova since transferring from Fordham, the 6-7 small-ball forward has started in all 27 games he has played in this season as Villanova's modern PF/C. He's excellent switching screens, has the length (6-11 wingspan) to recover to blocks at the rim and the shooting potential to develop into a more reliable spot-up threat in time (30.9 percent). Paschall's feel for the game is still improving, but he can make a shot, attack slow-footed big men off the bounce and switch onto the perimeter defensively. He's a unique physical specimen at 6-7, 253 pound with only 6.3 percent body fat, yet he has the body type that could thicken up easily. Continuing to stay in shape will be important for him. If Paschall evolves as a shooter and decision-maker while making winning plays with a bigger role next season, he could play his way into the 2019 draft conversation as a senior.
Potential 2019 first-rounders
In addition to scouting Creighton-Villanova, we also attended the Nebraska-Penn State game in Lincoln to get eyes on potential 2019 draft picks, Tony Carr and James Palmer. Both Carr and Palmer have emerged as NBA draft prospects this season, and should see their draft stock reach peak value in 2019 should they return to school. Here's a quick breakdown of both perimeter prospects:
Tony Carr | 6-foot-4½ | 200 pounds
PG | Penn State | So.
Getting eyes on 20-year-old Penn State PG Tony Carr. The 6' 4.5" Nittany Lion is averaging 22.7 PTS, 5.3 REBS, 5.7 AST and 2.7 AST per 40 min while shooting 40% from 2 and 46.6% from 3. Despite his 3P% Carr's shooting mechanics are a main point of interest moving forward. pic.twitter.com/elORguFc86
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) February 25, 2018
The Philadelphia native has made a big jump this season, leading the Big Ten Conference in scoring (19.9) while intriguing NBA scouts with his positional size and feel for the game. Carr has impressive physical tools for an NBA lead guard at 6-foot-4½ with a solid 200-pound frame and a 6-foot-8 wingspan. He led Penn State to a 19-12 regular-season record and offers a nice blend of scoring and playmaking at the lead guard spot.
Carr is a bit of an unorthodox prospect as he shoots a flat-footed set shot with a low release point from 3, yet drills 45.8 percent of his attempts on 5.3 tries per game. Carr struggles inside the arc, however, as he's a career 40 percent shooter from 2 at the NCAA level. He plays the game high and isn't overly explosive in terms of burst or bounce. Carr shoots only 41.9 percent at the rim and 29.1 percent on floaters in the half court, and he doesn't quite have the most dynamic pull-up game inside the arc. Carr could certainly use another year to up his efficiency and find more ways to put pressure on the rim, and finish, in the half court. Scouts will also want to see him become a more dynamic shooter, as questions about the projectability of his jumper will naturally arise.
With that said, Carr can facilitate out of pick-and-roll with a sound feel for the game, has the tools to check either guard spot in a pinch, and can make a spot-up 3 with time and space when the ball comes back to him. Carr's peak draft stock should come in 2019, but should he test the waters, it's not out of the question that some team could become enamored with his tools and feel. Scouts will be watching Carr closely at the Big Ten tournament in New York.
James Palmer | 6-foot-6 | 210 pounds
SF | Nebraska | Junior
In Lincoln for Nebraska-Penn State. First live look at Huskers wing James Palmer since his Miami days. The 21-year-old 6-6 wing has had a breakout season at Nebraska as he's averaging 22.9 PTS, 5.8 REB and 3.9 AST per 40. Physical specimen with an untraditional stroke (32.8 3P%). pic.twitter.com/2u1Ga59F0a
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) February 25, 2018
After turning in two fairly underwhelming seasons at Miami, the 21-year-old Palmer has exploded with added freedom under head coach Tim Miles at Nebraska. He led the Cornhuskers to a 22-9 regular-season record and a 4-seed in the Big Ten tournament by averaging an impressive 22.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per-40 minutes as a 31-game starter.
26 PTS (19 FGAs) and 5 AST for Nebraska wing James Palmer vs Maryland. The 21-year-old Miami transfer has made great strides with the Huskers and is benefitting from added volume. 6-6 with a strong frame, long arms and a growing skill set. Interesting long-term prospect. pic.twitter.com/uhJaHbuEXM
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) February 14, 2018
Palmer is a physical specimen standing 6-6 with a strong 210-pound frame and a wingspan that appears to be at least 7-feet. He's a fluid athlete who can change direction in transition and play above the rim in space. Although not overly quick or shifty, Palmer is comfortable operating with the ball, regularly trying to get to his right hand to attack the rim, oftentimes mixing in Eurosteps to dodge helping defenders. He's a capable playmaker and an improving shooter, although his unorthodox jumper is his clear swing skill moving forward. His release is on the slow side, with his knees knocking, his off elbow flying out and some right to left movement at the top of his jumper. Because he's not the most dynamic athlete, becoming a more reliable shooter (32.1 percent from 3) will be key for Palmer next season.
He can also stand to cut out avoidable turnovers and kick it up a notch on the defensive end, which was one of his problems while at Miami. Palmer's skill-set still needs refining, but he has helped himself in a big way this season and could continue to build his NBA resume with a run in the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments, should Nebraska get in.
At the least, Palmer is a prospect NBA scouts will evaluate closely next season as he may develop into a potential 2019 first-round pick.