The deal
Suns get: Guard Elfrid Payton
Magic get: 2018 second-round pick
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Orlando Magic: C
The new Magic front office of president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond inherited Payton from their predecessors, and they made it pretty clear where they stood on his future with this deal. Orlando was going to take anything it could get for Payton before he became a restricted free agent this summer.
It's been a disappointing season for Payton despite him posting career-best offensive statistics. The Magic went 5-4 in the nine games he missed early in the season and have given up 9.4 more points per 100 possessions with Payton on the court, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
The problem is there's no particular reason to believe this is Payton's doing. As I noted early in the season, the big difference in Orlando's defensive stats with and without Payton is 3-point shooting. Opponents are making 41 percent of their 3s with Payton on the court and 32 percent with him on the bench. That difference is larger than the gap between the NBA's best team in terms of opponent 3-point percentage (the Philadelphia 76ers, at 33.5 percent) and the worst (the Sacramento Kings, at 38.4 percent). To the extent players have any control over opponent 3-point shooting, it's not plausible the difference could be that large.
Critics have pointed to Payton's defense at the point of attack, but this isn't reflected in terms of shot quality. Second Spectrum's qSQ rating measures the effective field goal percentage an average team would shoot given the location and type of shots taken and distance to the nearest defender. The Magic's qSQ with Payton (52.1 percent) is almost exactly the same as without him (52.3 percent). This is true even if we drill down just on 3-point attempts (54.3 percent with, 54.2 percent without). Orlando isn't giving up easier 3-point attempts with Payton on the court. They're just going in more often.
None of this is to say that the Magic are necessarily making a mistake by trading Payton. His limited outside shooting (he's actually making 37 percent of his 3s this season, though on just 1.5 attempts per game, and is a career 30 percent shooter) is problematic offensively, and Payton is about to get more expensive as a restricted free agent. Orlando also could add a point guard of the future via the draft.
If the Magic weren't going to re-sign him, getting anything now -- even a second-round pick that figures to land in the late 30s or early 40s -- is a win. I just hope Orlando's front office wasn't heavily influenced by fluky opponent 3-point shooting in making this decision.
Phoenix Suns: B
From the Suns' standpoint, this is a low-cost look to see whether Payton can fill the hole at point guard they created by trading Eric Bledsoe earlier this season.
Phoenix is flush with second-round picks. In addition to their own, the Suns also have one coming from the Toronto Raptors, possibly one from the Milwaukee Bucks (if it's outside the top 47) from the Bledsoe deal, and the one included in this trade with Orlando. It will be the second best of picks belonging to Charlotte, Memphis and Miami, one that the Suns got for taking on Troy Daniels' contract just before training camp. Based on the current standings, that pick would come from Charlotte and be 41st overall.
Without Bledsoe, Phoenix had perhaps the NBA's worst point guard rotation. Second-year guard Tyler Ulis hasn't been able to score efficiently against bigger defenders in the NBA, and after some promising play, journeyman Isaiah Canaan suffered a season-ending fractured ankle last week. (The Suns waived Canaan to make room on the roster for Payton.) About the best solution interim Phoenix head coach Jay Triano has found is playing Devin Booker at point guard, a role that doesn't really maximize his value as a catch-and-shoot player.
Because Booker and small forward Josh Jackson can both handle the ball, I think the Suns would prefer a long-term option at point guard who can shoot better than Payton. They, too, might draft a point guard this June. Still, I think taking a look at Payton was well worth the shot at this price. Phoenix can see how Payton's market takes shape as a restricted free agent before deciding whether to invest in him long term or walk away.