What does Lou Williams' extension mean for the trade deadline?
The LA Clippers guard, whose name had been floated in trade discussions, agreed to add three years to his contract the day before the deadline. That obviously takes Williams off the trade market -- he can't be dealt for six months after signing an extension -- and has implications for both the teams chasing him and other sellers.
So why would Williams make a deal now, and what impact will it have? Let's break it down.
Why Williams signed an extension now
Surely, Williams and his agent (Wallace Prather) were considering the same concerns about the market for free agents this summer explored by ESPN's Bobby Marks and Brian Windhorst in an article earlier this week.
As noted in the piece, few teams will have cap space this summer, meaning most will be shopping with their midlevel exceptions. Many contenders will be limited to the taxpayer midlevel, which is projected to start at $5.3 million. So Williams may well have faced a choice between making more money with a lesser team or sacrificing to play for a winner.
In order to avoid that choice, Williams took an extension that pays him slightly less than where the non-taxpayer midlevel exception is projected to start ($8.6 million). First reported by Mark Deeks of GiveMeSport, Williams will make a flat $8 million each season over the course of the deal.
Besides avoiding a severe market crunch, Williams gets to stay with a team on which he has thrived in the same city he has played for most of the past three years. (Williams spent a year and a half with the Los Angeles Lakers before being traded to the Houston Rockets at last year's deadline, then was dealt back to L.A. with the Clippers over the offseason.) It's understandable that Williams would prefer the certainty of an extension now to the unknown of free agency.
Why the Clippers agreed to an extension now
The timing of this deal suggests that the Clippers may well have moved Williams had they been unable to agree to an extension, getting value for him before he became an unrestricted free agent. Locking him in now gives the Clippers cost certainty instead of having to worry about Williams getting an exorbitant offer this summer.
Perhaps more importantly, the Clippers were able to extract an important concession from Williams: a partial guarantee of $1.5 million on the final season (which could increase depending on performance criteria, according to Deeks). That gives them the ability to get out of the deal before Williams' age-34 campaign and also figures to make it much easier to trade him if necessary to clear additional cap room in the summer of 2019. At that point, the Clippers currently have only him and Danilo Gallinari under guaranteed contracts and could pursue multiple max free agents.
Hanging on to Williams rather than dealing him also allows the Clippers to contend for a playoff spot this season. They're currently a half-game behind the New Orleans Pelicans for the eighth and final seed in the Western Conference, and with the Pelicans reeling after DeMarcus Cousins' injury (they've lost four of their past five games, including one against LA), the Clippers have a chance to reach the playoffs despite trading star forward Blake Griffin.
All told, this extension looks like a win for the Clippers.
How will the Clippers approach the deadline?
Despite keeping Williams for a playoff push, reporting suggests the Clippers will continue to look to trade guard Avery Bradley and center DeAndre Jordan, both of whom can become free agents this summer. (Jordan has a $24.1 million player option he's expected to decline.) Can the Clippers compete for a playoff spot without them?
Bradley, who has played just two games for the Clippers since coming over in the Griffin trade, is something of a luxury. Though Bradley has played heavily both games (a combined 60 minutes), Doc Rivers has plenty of alternative options on the wing. Williams can play either backcourt spot and the Clippers went 6-4 in the 10 games Tyrone Wallace started at shooting guard. They'll also get Austin Rivers back from an ankle injury soon; Rivers told the Los Angeles Times last week his goal is to return this Friday at Detroit.
As for Jordan, the Clippers managed to stay afloat when he missed five games last month with a sprained ankle, going 3-2 without him. (Four of the five games were at home.) More generally, the Clippers have performed better this season with Jordan on the bench. Their plus-3.0 net rating when he sits is second-best on the team, per NBA Advanced Stats. Some part of that success can be traced to opponent 3-point shooting; opponents are making 36.2 percent of their 3s when Jordan plays as compared to 33.2 percent when he sits, which probably doesn't reflect Jordan's own play.
At the same time, Jordan hasn't seemed to be as big a factor defensively this season. He's contesting just 18.4 shots per 100 possessions, according to Second Spectrum data powered by NBA Advanced Stats, down from 22.0 last season. And opponents are making 62.7 percent of their attempts inside five feet with Jordan as a primary defender, up from 58.7 percent in 2016-17.
The Clippers also have gotten effective play from backup center Montrezl Harrell, who can fill a similar role to Jordan as a lob threat and paint protector. Harrell is blocking shots more frequently than Jordan and making 60.9 percent of his 2-point attempts, not far off Jordan's 65.6 percent. So the Clippers may be able to trade Jordan without seeing a huge drop-off the rest of the season.
The unlikely winner of Williams' extension
As thrilled as the Clippers and Williams surely were to get a deal done, another team might be even happier: the Memphis Grizzlies, who are looking to deal their own high-scoring guard, Tyreke Evans. Without Williams as a possible alternative, the bidding war for Evans among teams looking to upgrade their bench for the stretch run could get hotter to Memphis' benefit.
It's less clear where teams who miss out on Evans might turn as an alternative. There's a big drop-off to the more limited shooting specialists like Marco Belinelli and Joe Harris who could be available. So Williams' extension the day before the trade deadline could have effects that ripple throughout the league.