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ESPN- NBA draft analyst and writer
Joined ESPN.com in July 2017
Founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams
Going into his senior season, Duke's Grayson Allen was projected as an All-American and runner-up for preseason ACC player of the year. His season has been controversy-free compared to his sophomore and junior years, but his productivity hasn't lived up to expectations. Duke has suffered some unexpected losses thus far -- Boston College, St. John's, NC State -- but is still ranked fourth by ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) and ninth in the latest AP poll.
With Duke's biggest game of the season coming up Thursday (8 p.m., ET, ESPN/WatchESPN) at North Carolina, all eyes will be on their captain to see if he can finish his career 3-1 at the Dean Dome (he's 5-2 overall so far against the Tar Heels).
How does Allen stack up as an NBA draft prospect? Is all the attention he receives warranted? And will he continue to matter once his college career comes to a close?
After a memorable performance in the national championship game in 2015 while coming off the bench as a completely unheralded freshman, Allen surprised some by deciding to come back to school following an outstanding sophomore season in 2015-16. His junior year did not go according to plan, partially due to a nagging toe injury, and he didn't have much choice but to come back for his senior season.
Are NCAA seniors passé?
Jonathan Givony: College seniors have gradually been marginalized in the NBA draft process over the years, with not a single one selected in the first 28 picks of the 2017 draft. An average of 4.4 seniors per year have been drafted in the first round this decade, down from 6.9 in the 2000s, 17.8 in the '90s and 19.8 in the '80s.
That doesn't mean seniors can't still find ways to make an impact. Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green will be playing in the All-Star Game next Sunday, and six of the 18 players with NCAA experience in the Rising Stars Challenge spent four years in college.
According to our research, 131 NCAA seniors drafted between 2002 and 2017 ended up becoming rotation players or better (at least one season playing 40 games and 15 minutes per game), which means on average nine NCAA seniors drafted each year will end up having a decent impact in the NBA. That also doesn't include players who went undrafted.
We identified 75 NBA players who completed their college careers (including undrafted players) and are currently logging rotation minutes -- that's around 25 percent of players averaging at least 15 MPG. This is a pretty strong indication that it's foolish to completely write off NCAA seniors, as history shows that quite a few of them will end up carving out solid careers in the NBA.
Mike, I know we both enjoy highlighting NCAA seniors who NBA teams can uncover as contributors. Allen is hardly a sleeper, but we've long felt he can emerge a potential NBA role player.
His past 10 games have been pretty rough, though. His shooting (28 percent from 3) and overall efficiency (true shooting [TS%] of 48 percent) haven't been there, as this has been one of the weakest stretches of his career -- just as Duke's schedule has gotten tougher.
What is going on, and how important is it for him to turn it around, both from Duke's standpoint, as well as his own pro future?
Mike Schmitz: Since the turn of the calendar year, Allen really has been a shell of his former self. After failing to reach double-digits only once over his first 14 games this season, he has scored fewer than 10 points in five of his past nine games. According to Synergy Sports, Allen is scoring only 0.765 points per possession in the half court during that stretch, also turning the ball over on 15.3 percent of possessions.
A prolific spot-up player throughout his career, Allen is posting an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 38 in spot-up situations and only 29.2 percent out of ball screens since Jan. 1. He's struggling to make shots when sprinting off screens (0.4 PPP), another usual strength, and hasn't been able to get many easy buckets outside of occasional transition runouts. His body language has left much to be desired, and his reliability as Duke's clear-cut leader has fluctuated.
From my viewpoint, Allen's 2018 struggles are a combination of three different factors.
1. 3-point shooting normalizing
Part of this slump is Allen missing open looks. Over his past nine games, he's scoring only 0.727 PPP on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers in the half court, per Synergy. After shooting better than 44 percent from 3 through November and December, a down shooting month could have been expected as Allen is a 38.4 percent 3-point shooter on the 731-shot sample size in the DraftExpress database (that includes pre-college play). He's now right around his career mark for the season (38.2 percent).
Allen is failing to capitalize on the rare open looks he's getting both in transition and in the open floor. He still has excellent balance and sound mechanics, with a lot of his misses coming of the in-and-out variety. Allen hasn't shot worse than 30 percent from 3 for an entire month since December 2015, and he never has failed to reach 30 percent for consecutive months in his collegiate career, which he'll hope to avoid with a bounce-back February.
Marvin Bagley III cleans up Grayson Allen's missed 3-pointer with a slam.
As his scoring has dipped 9.9 PPG from December to January, his confidence has also seemingly evaporated. The 22-year-old attempted just more than nine shots per game over his past nine outings in more than 36 MPG, considerably down from his 12.8 mark in 29.5 MPG in December. He's starting to turn down more open looks, and is seemingly struggling with the mental side of pulling himself out of this rut.
With so much youth and inconsistency on the roster -- namely in the backcourt -- Duke needs to lean on a rock-solid Allen, and he has had major issues being exactly that over the course of the last month or so. While Duke is supremely talented with two potential top-10 picks in Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr. -- plus five-star freshmen Gary Trent Jr. and Trevon Duval -- it's Allen who appears to be the X factor for the Blue Devils. He's averaging 15.7 points and 4.6 assists on 54.8 percent from 2 and 41.6 percent from 3 in 19 wins. In four losses, Allen has averaged an ugly 8.5 points in a hefty 39.2 MPG with a pitiful 34.2 TS%.
2. No space or shot creators
While Allen figures to rediscover his shooting stroke based on his career numbers, a lack of clean looks is certainly contributing to his dip in production. More often than not, teams are helping off of Duval (a non-shooter) and keying on Allen while not having to worry about Carter and Bagley outside of the paint. Trent has been the main beneficiary of all the attention that both Bagley and Allen garner, as he's getting a host of open looks and cashing in on 45 percent of his triples on the season with 6.3 attempts per game.
On the other hand, Allen has been forced into tough pull-up after tough pull-up, which is killing his efficiency and, seemingly, his confidence. He and Duval are Duke's only true shot creators in the half court, and the mostly-straight-line Allen isn't all that well-equipped for that role. Pull-up jumpers are making up 31.9 percent of his total shots this season, the highest mark of his career by more than 10 percentage points, according to Synergy. While he's in the 85th percentile on the season, Allen is 3-of-16 on pull-ups over his past nine games, good for 0.5 PPP (less than half of his season average). Best as a quick-action shooter who can attack a closeout and play some second-side pick-and-roll, Allen has struggled with more shot-creation duties, which is partially due to Duke's lack of spacing.
Although Duke ranks second in the ACC in 3-point percentage, usually Allen and Trent are the only true floor spacers on the court at the same time. Though Bagley and Carter can both step out on occasion, they regularly operate in the paint or the dunker spot. Duval gives them nothing when he's off the ball, and teams continually go under when he's on the ball, which limits his playmaking chances. Here's what Allen is facing every time he attacks the rim:
When Duke plays with a spaced floor, Allen has had much more success getting to the rim or the free throw line. He might never be a dynamic slasher, but with NBA spacing and shooting at almost every position, he'll have much more room to get his shoulders squared to the rim and unleash his powerful athleticism.
Grayson Allen drives the lane and finishes with a pretty scoop layup while drawing the foul for the and-1.
Allen's had to hoist up too many contested pull-ups, partially a function of his role combined with his limited wiggle and shiftiness. It really shows up against athletes. While he's capable of rising into contested jumpers, creating space in one-on-one situations is far from his forte as he lacks a degree of quickness off a live dribble.
Because he's not much of a threat to dynamically change direction and put the big man defender on skates in pick-and-roll, Allen has opted to pull-up for a lot of contested 3s. Having to live off of these type of shots is one of the main reasons he's struggling to score and opting to defer more than he has in the past.
3. Heavy-footed finisher
Allen needs time and space to get off the floor. He doesn't get great extension around the rim with his 6-6½ wingspan and really needs to add more to his finishing package in terms of craft and deception. His free throw rate has also dipped considerably this season, as he's averaging only 3.7 attempts per 40 minutes -- well below his career mark of 6.3.
With limited spacing and not the most graceful bounce in traffic, Allen is floundering in the paint. He's shooting only 4-of-12 on shots at the rim and 2-of-6 on floaters in the half court over his past nine games. On the season, Allen is shooting only 36.2 percent on shots at the rim plus floaters in the half court, converting 0.74 such shots per game on average.
Grayson Allen misses the shot, but Amile Jefferson is there to put it back for Duke. It's not all good for Jefferson though as he loses his contact lens on the play.
Allen doesn't appear to be handling the pressure of contributing to a floundering team that was a consensus No. 1 coming into the season, and he has had issues finding his way on a roster with several young players hungry to get their stats.
Jonathan, Allen's regression has to be a bit concerning to NBA scouts. He had a lot of steam after his stellar sophomore season and was projected by us as the No. 31 pick in the 2016 draft on the day he announced his return to Duke. Did he make a mistake by not entering the draft?
Givony: It's possible that Allen's draft stock will never be higher than it was after his first-team All-ACC and All-American sophomore season, as we haven't seen him have the breakthrough we've anticipated for two years now, but I'm not necessarily sure that means it was a mistake not to leave. Listening to what Allen had to say about his reasoning for coming back in 2016, it's hard to fault him for returning to school since he clearly wasn't ready mentally for the rigors of the NBA. It's also hard to knock an academic All-American for wanting to get his college degree, which he stated was a lifelong dream.
Looking back at guys whom Allen played with or against in high school, we're already seeing a number of then-highly touted recruits who are either out of the NBA (like Cliff Alexander, James Young, Diamond Stone, Stephen Zimmerman), close to being out of the NBA (Rashad Vaughn, Kevon Looney, Dakari Johnson) or on their last legs (Jahlil Okafor), even though they are all around the same age as Allen at 22.
With the NBA being as fickle as ever with young players, I do think that most non-lottery picks are better off coming into the league more physically and mentally ready to contribute. The roster churn we're seeing these days is significant, and teams are much less likely to waste spots on developing projects into eventual role players. Some of these guys will never get another shot, and spending your early 20s in the G League is a lot less glamorous than chasing NCAA titles at Duke.
So, I think more power to him. Unless he hates school, has injury concerns or is in desperate need of money, I would enjoy those charter flights, rockstar status on campus and every game being broadcasted on ESPN. This might be the best time of his life.
Potential NBA fit
Schmitz: Regardless of how bad he has been over the past nine games, scouts still have a decent idea of what they're getting with Allen -- a tough-minded competitor who can shoot on the move, facilitate in second-side situations and get to the rim in transition or a straight-line when given the proper spacing. Although he has battled inconsistencies, Allen's main intrigue starts with his shooting, as he has made 244 3s at a 38.5 percent clip during his collegiate career.
His ability to spot shoot allows Allen to play off of closeouts comfortably both as a scorer and playmaker. He forces scrambling defenders into hard closeouts, opening up drives where he displays great timing along with some creativity:
Grayson Allen drives and feeds the ball to Wendell Carter Jr. for a two-handed flush to add to Duke's 18-0 scoring run vs. Notre Dame.
He has the footwork to be more than just a standstill shooter as he regularly sprints into dribble handoffs to his left, quickly getting his feet under him before firing. This ability to shoot on the move along with his improved vision will help him find success in NBA-style quick actions.
Although not the most electric pick-and-roll player, he's comfortable in a ball screen and can punish unders or get to mid-range spots against drop coverages.
Grayson Allen pulls up and hits a deep three-pointer during the final minute of the first half.
Allen is capable of putting the ball on the deck when run off of his spots, and his blend of shot-making, physicality at the rim and playmaking in space is certainly intriguing to NBA scouts. At the NBA level, I think we're much more likely to see the version of Grayson Allen that won the nation over with his energy as a freshman on the 2015 title team. He doesn't project as a 30-plus MPG player in the NBA and is much better suited to embrace a bench role where he can focus on making shots and playing with a motor on both ends.
Allen gave scouts a glimpse of that this past summer at the Nike Skills Academy, where, according to a handful of talent evaluators who attended, he stood out as one of the top players and regularly scored on and defended the NBA athletes who participated in occasional pick-up games.
About 10 years ago, his size -- 6-4½, 210 pounds with a 6-6½ wingspan -- might have been more of an issue, but more and more teams are playing with multiple ball handlers and smaller lineups, which bodes well for Allen. Guards such as Gary Harris, who has almost identical dimensions to Allen, are key NBA starters signing $84 million contracts, and the league has certainly trended smaller. Even with some of his roller-coaster tendencies, it's easy to envision an NBA coaching staff and fan-base falling in love with Allen's competitiveness.
What can really make Allen even more attractive to NBA teams is if he can function as more of a primary ball handler for stretches. His improved passing metrics suggest that he's trending in the right direction.
Jonathan, how has Allen improved as a passer during his career and what does that mean from an NBA perspective?
Givony: While Allen's scoring efficiency (58 TS%) hasn't improved the way some might have hoped, his overall offensive efficiency (127 offensive rating, 12th among top-100 prospects) is hovering around the same levels as his peak sophomore season (128 ORTG). The reason for that is his evolution as a playmaker, which certainly helps his cause to be considered more of a combo guard prospect for the NBA.
With Duval having a highly inconsistent season, Allen is shouldering the backup point guard duties full time, and he's being asked to absorb quite a bit of ballhandling responsibilities even when sharing the floor with Duval. His assists (5.0 per 40 minutes) are up on the season, and his turnovers (2.1 per 40) are way down, giving him one of the better assist-to-turnover and pure point ratings (PPR) of anyone in this draft class, with a better PPR than many of the guards that are projected higher than him, such as Trae Young, Collin Sexton, Shake Milton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Holiday and Bruce Brown Jr.
While not blessed with elite ballhandling skills or an overwhelmingly explosive first step, Allen is an unselfish player by nature, something the Duke coaching staff has said works against him at times.
"He is trying to help his teammates, but you have to be careful not to lose some of you," coach Mike Krzyzewski said after the St. John's loss last week.
Allen has turned into Duke's fourth or fifth option in many games this season, which certainly wasn't the plan going into 2017-18.
There's a good argument to be made that with better spacing than what Duke has seen this season -- playing with two centers at all times and the non-shooting Duval allowing defenders to help off him -- things might be a little easier at the next level. Allen's range extends well beyond the NBA arc, and his footwork, timing and creativity attacking closeouts, transition opportunities and secondary ball screen could be assets coming off the bench for someone.
Allen's shooting ultimately will be the swing skill for his ability to carve out an NBA career, but if he's able to make jumpers with his feet set and off the dribble against longer and more athletic defenders at the next level, his passing ability will certainly be highly beneficial as well.
However, the last and potentially most important component of his ability to stay on the floor in the NBA will be his defense. Mike, what have you seen from Allen's evolution on that end over the last few years, and how much can his competitiveness mask his just-decent physical tools?
Schmitz: Allen doesn't project as a lockdown defender given his average size and length, somewhat heavy feet and minimal overall range. His defensive effort has wavered over the course of the past two seasons as his scoring load has increased. With that said, during his slump Allen has regained the defensive zest that allowed him to get on the court in the NCAA tournament as a freshman.
Whether in zone or man, Duke still regularly gets gashed on the defensive end, and the Blue Devils rank 74th in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom.com. Allen isn't at the forefront of Duke's defensive issues, though, as it's more Bagley, Carter and Trent who have played a role in some borderline laughable defensive performances.
Allen has actually been somewhat of a plus on the defensive end as of late, pressuring the ball, fighting through screens, diving for loose balls and taking on-ball charges. Allen is energetic and gritty by nature, and he's the type to embrace the idea of providing a defensive jolt off the bench in the NBA, even if his physical profile isn't elite. Of course, relying on strictly effort to survive defensively is a tough way to live, but it's certainly doable in a finite bench role, especially if Allen defends the way he has been as of late.
Grayson Allen falls to the ground to come up with the steal and passes to Javin DeLaurier who throws down the two-handed dunk.
In addition to heating up the ball at the point of attack, he's doing a better job of using his strong frame and effort to keep the ball contained. He has slid over to take a handful of on-ball charges, and has proven capable of at least battling bigger guards and wings.
Allen is also averaging a career-best 1.7 steals per-40 minutes -- 2.1 in the month of January. He has been active in the passing lanes and is diving on the floor for loose balls regularly. It's that type of energy that scouts love about Allen when he's fully locked in. These high-intangible, winning plays will make it tough for Allen's future coach to keep him on the pine.
Grayson Allen gets the steal and runs out for the fast-break dunk.
With all of that said, Allen still has his defensive shortcomings. He's not overly quick-twitch and doesn't have the physical gifts to fall back on when his motor isn't running hot. He struggles to keep quicker guards in front and figures to have issues with point guards and combo guards at the NBA level.
NC State's Allerik Freeman speeds down the court and finds Abdul-Malik Abu who finishes with a two-handed slam.
He can also be a bit bulky defending ball screens and can do a better job of directing the ball:
Allen still is no stranger to getting lost off the ball either, despite his increased energy:
With all that said, it has been nice to see Allen rediscover the defensive grit he showed as a freshman. Given his expected role in the NBA, he's likely to carry that energy over to the next level, even if he's never going to be able to stay in front of Kyrie Irving or John Wall.
It clearly has been a whirlwind season, and few years, for the Duke villain. What are scouts going to be keying on for the rest of the season? What are the remaining question marks they have about Allen as a prospect?
Givony: It seems to me that a lot of Allen's struggles this season -- and throughout his career -- have been with handling the immense amount of pressure that comes with being the go-to guy on the most hated team in college basketball. While he's certainly a bold player, and a big-time competitor, I think scouts will want to get a better feel for the mental side of Allen's game, which is most directly related to the baffling inconsistency we've seen from him as a senior. His outbursts (including the tripping incidents) over the years and his recent struggles are directly tied to this, and there's a school of thought that a change of scenery will be huge for him once he is able to step outside of the limelight of being the face of Duke basketball.
NBA coaches want to know what they are getting on a nightly basis from guys who are asked to play very specific roles coming off the bench. Allen has fluctuated wildly this season from incredible performances, such as his 37-point outing in the Champions Classic against Michigan State, to horrible ones like the past three games against Miami, Virginia and St. John's, where he combined to shoot only 5-for-24 from the field.
It was borderline shocking to see a shooter of Allen's caliber miss the front end of a one-and-one as Duke was attempting to mount a second-half comeback at the Garden last weekend, and his body language in general varied from apathetic to frustrated over the course of the afternoon, which is not what you would expect from a senior in that situation. How much can Duke's coaching staff count on Allen to deliver as the Blue Devils enter the ACC tournament and then the NCAA tournament?
This is directly related to another thing NBA teams will be monitoring, which is how Allen fares against elite competition. Allen traditionally feasts against weaker opponents, as his player efficiency rating (PER) against middling competition (which we define as non-Power 6 conference opponents, and all opponents with overall records below .500) is 19.7 in 59 games. That number falls to 11.6 in his 68 games against all other teams. The reason for that is his 3-point shooting falls from 42 to 37 percent, his 2-point shooting drops off a cliff from 50 to 41 percent, he gets to the free throw line less, scores six fewer points per 40 and turns it over more frequently. This is not particularly rare, as most players in college post better numbers against cupcake teams, but not to such an extreme degree. The fact that we have such a large sample size at our disposal of 127 games and counting makes these splits all the more jarring. If Allen continues to struggle over the next six weeks and finishes his career on a disappointing note, we'll hear a lot more about this going into the NBA pre-draft process.