Who should have made the All-Star Game this year?
Here were my picks for each conference, including who I found most deserving but was left off by the NBA coaches, as well as which All-Stars I left off.
You can find my All-Star starters ballot here.
Eastern Conference
Coach picks:
Bradley Beal | BC | Washington Wizards
Al Horford | FC | Boston Celtics
Kevin Love | FC | Cleveland Cavaliers
Kyle Lowry | BC | Toronto Raptors
Victor Oladipo | BC | Indiana Pacers
Kristaps Porzingis | FC | New York Knicks
John Wall | BC | Washington Wizards
My picks:
Andre Drummond | FC | Detroit Pistons
Al Horford | FC | Boston Celtics
Kevin Love | FC | Cleveland Cavaliers
Kyle Lowry | BC | Toronto Raptors
Victor Oladipo | BC | Indiana Pacers
Kristaps Porzingis | FC | New York Knicks
Kemba Walker | BC | Charlotte Hornets
Who made my team
Andre Drummond
I'm surprised Drummond's improvement this season did not translate into a return to the All-Star Game, which he played in two years ago. Using Drummond as a playmaker at the elbow has unlocked new elements of the Detroit offense; his assist rate (5.2 per 100 plays) is solidly better than the average shooting guard (4.0). And Drummond has improved dramatically at the free throw line, making Hack-a-Drummond a thing of the past.
In terms of all-in-one value stats, Drummond was close to a lock. He ranks eighth in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric and an incredible fifth in Basketball-Reference.com's value over replacement player (VORP). I do think Drummond's box score stats overstate his defensive value; he's still below average in terms of recognizing threats and protecting the rim. But Drummond still has a better rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) than the Wizards guards who got in ahead of him.
Kemba Walker
Walker never really had a chance to make the All-Star Game for a simple reason: his Hornets team, expected to return to the playoffs this season, is instead 19-26 and four games out of a playoff spot. It's hard for me to hold that against Walker for a couple of reasons.
First, Charlotte has actually been far more competitive than that record. For the season, the Hornets have played their opponents even, a better point differential than two teams in the East (the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks) with above-.500 records. Charlotte is mired in the lottery because of a 7-16 record in games decided by 10 points or fewer.
If you want to pin that on Walker, the Hornets' go-to player in the clutch, that's not unreasonable. His .472 true shooting percentage in the last five minutes of games where the score is within five points ranks 26th among the 33 players who have used more than 30 percent of their team's plays in those situations, according to NBA.com/Stats. There's only one problem with that argument: Wizards guards Beal (.409) and John Wall (.458), Walker's primary competition for a spot among the East wild cards, have been even less efficient in the clutch.
The other thing holding back Charlotte is the team's inability to play well with Walker on the bench. Unable to spend much money on a backup point guard last summer because of luxury-tax concerns, the Hornets have been outscored by 12.0 points per 100 possessions when Walker rests. With Walker on the court, Charlotte outscores opponents by 5.1 points per 100 possessions, a better on-court net rating than Washington has with either John Wall (plus-4.6) or Beal (plus-3.4).
In terms of individual stats, Walker is having essentially the same kind of season as last year, when he made his first All-Star appearance. He belonged on the roster again this year despite the Hornets' disappointing record.
The All-Star who didn't make my team
Bradley Beal
I would have taken Beal barely ahead of Wall because of the important role he played in keeping Washington afloat during his backcourt-mate's nine-game absence. But ultimately, Beal hasn't been quite as good offensively as Walker given the latter's superior playmaking.
John Wall
There was certainly a case to be made for Wall given he's not far behind the All-Stars in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric even with the time he missed due to injury. Given Wall's track record, we'd expect him to play better in the second half of the season. I don't think that would have made up the ground to Walker, however.
Who else didn't make my team
Spencer Dinwiddie, Brooklyn Nets: The groundswell for Dinwiddie among Nets fans wasn't unreasonable; he's 24th in the league and 10th among East players in RPM. But Dinwiddie's box score stats aren't quite that good (his .532 true shooting percentage is well below the league average of .552) and he still needs to keep this up for more than three months to get serious All-Star consideration.
Tobias Harris, Detroit Pistons: In the conversation but not quite efficient enough given he doesn't play as large an offensive role as the All-Star guards.
Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks: See Harris, though his role is slightly larger.
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers: Despite his incredible versatility, Simmons has been too inefficient and turnover-prone to be an All-Star as a rookie.
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat: Posting his typically impressive box score stats, but there are too many nights where his unwillingness to come out of the paint makes him a defensive liability.
Western Conference
Coach picks:
LaMarcus Aldridge | FC | San Antonio Spurs
Jimmy Butler | BC | Minnesota Timberwolves
Draymond Green | FC | Golden State Warriors
Damian Lillard | BC | Portland Trail Blazers
Klay Thompson | BC | Golden State Warriors
Karl-Anthony Towns | FC | Minnesota Timberwolves
Russell Westbrook | BC | Oklahoma City Thunder
My picks:
LaMarcus Aldridge | FC | San Antonio Spurs
Jimmy Butler | BC | Minnesota Timberwolves
Draymond Green | FC | Golden State Warriors
Nikola Jokic | FC | Denver Nuggets
Chris Paul | BC | Houston Rockets
Karl-Anthony Towns | FC | Minnesota Timberwolves
Russell Westbrook | BC | Oklahoma City Thunder
Who made my team
Nikola Jokic
Given the glut of All-Star candidates in the West, a defensively challenged big man averaging 16.2 points per game was a hard sell. Jokic also hasn't been nearly as efficient this season as in his breakthrough 2016-17, having seen his 2-point percentage drop from 62.8 percent to 52.5. And yet Jokic is still 17th in the league in WARP and RPM and 15th in Basketball-Reference.com's value over replacement player metric.
Part of what these metrics are all valuing is Jokic's incredible playmaking for a big man. One of my favorite stats to explain the discrepancy between a player's perceived value and their advanced statistics is net assists: simply the number of assists a player hands out minus the field goals on which they're assisted (the latter figure via Basketball-Reference.com). Here are how the big men who were legitimately in contention for an All-Star spot compare on this stat:
Point guards naturally dominate this category, and Jokic isn't far behind them. His 7.0 assists per 100 team plays are nearly average for a point guard (7.5) and he creates most of his own shots. Cousins is the other West All-Star contender big man who has a positive net assists total; the other three players are -- like most bigs -- set up far more often than they set up their teammates.
The other discrepancy between Jokic's advanced stats and his perception is on defense. Despite his famously poor rim protection for a center, the Nuggets are again allowing fewer points per 100 possessions (3.4, this year) with Jokic on the court. While that partially owes this season to opponent 3-point shooting, his page on CleaningTheGlass.com makes clear that Denver has consistently rebounded better and fouled less frequently with Jokic on the court. He's not quite as bad there as his reputation, and he's a deserving All-Star.
Chris Paul
Wait, but seriously, why isn't Paul an All-Star? Yes, he's missed a big chunk of the season (17 of Houston's 45 games) due to injury, but we're not talking about a situation like Kawhi Leonard where one of the league's best players has been almost totally a non-factor due to injury. Despite missing that much time, Paul ranks 23rd in WARP and 18th in VORP, two stats designed to account for absences by factoring in playing time as well as production.
When he's been on the court, Paul has been as good as ever, ranking third in the league in RPM behind Stephen Curry (a starter though he's also missed time) and teammate James Harden (ditto). If Paul stays reasonably healthy the rest of the season, his omission from the All-Star Game because he happened to be injured in the first half of the season and not the second half will look silly. He should be an All-Star.
The All-Stars who didn't make my team
Damian Lillard and Klay Thompson
As the fourth option on the NBA's best team, Thompson is difficult to compare to the offensive anchors on less talented West teams. (Like the big men who did make it, he has severely negative net assists.) While my ESPN colleague Zach Lowe highlighted Thompson's performance in lineups without either Curry or Kevin Durant, I was more swayed by his numbers without Curry overall: .554 true shooting percentage (almost exactly league average) while using 26.6 percent of the Warriors' plays. That puts him in the same ballpark as All-Star omission Paul George, who's posting a .572 true shooting percentage with 25.4 percent usage.
If I had to pick between George and Thompson, I'd go with George, who is a slightly better defender because he adds more disruptive plays as a help defender to the individual defense at which both excel. But ultimately I didn't think either George or Thompson were as valuable as the point guards and centers who are playing bigger roles in their teams' offenses.
Lillard was a tough call. His individual numbers are unimpeachable. Lillard is scoring prolifically and efficiently, and both he and his team have improved defensively. But because of the presence of CJ McCollum and the much-improved Shabazz Napier, I'm not sure Lillard is quite as important to the Blazers as the big men who made my team, as reflected by his relatively small on/off differential.
Who else didn't make my team
Tyreke Evans, Memphis Grizzlies: Quietly, Evans' All-Star case is shockingly similar to Lou Williams' one. Neither quite merits it in a loaded Western Conference.
Lou Williams, LA Clippers: There's no doubt Williams has played at an All-Star level over the past month, and this isn't fluky. He's 16th overall in WARP and not playing that far beyond his 2016-17 performance. However, it's worth pointing out that a larger role has exacerbated Williams' defensive shortcomings, and the Clippers have given up 7.4 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court. So Williams ranks a distant 96th this season in RPM.