Who should start the All-Star Game?
Fans have the right to answer that question using whatever criteria they want, including by simply voting for players on their favorite team. But if you're interested in the best performers, here's the ballot I'm submitting as part of the media component of All-Star voting, chosen with an emphasis on this season's performance while taking track record into account.
East backcourt
Kyrie Irving
Position: PG
Boston Celtics
Experience: 6 years
Irving has backed up the trade he requested with the best season of his career, posting career highs in both true shooting percentage (.592) and usage rate (31.3 percent) with the Celtics.
As part of the league's best defensive team, Irving has also put forward greater effort with better outcomes on that end of the court. As a result, Irving ranks eighth in the league and third among East players in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric.
DeMar DeRozan
Position: SG
Toronto Raptors
Experience: 8 years
Victor Oladipo has perhaps been the second-most-valuable East guard this season, but because his level of play is so far above his previous performance -- and because it starts with improved 3-point shooting, the area of most unsustainable results -- I'm inclined to believe he'll decline going forward. Oladipo looks like an All-Star, but not quite a starter, in my view.
With John Wall missing time due to injury, and not as effective as when healthy, that leaves the Raptors' guards as the candidates for my other starting spot. In the past, Kyle Lowry has clearly been better by advanced stats, but DeRozan has reduced the gap this season. Improved 3-point shooting has made DeRozan a more efficient scorer (his true shooting percentage is a career-high .580), and Toronto has no longer fared much better with Lowry alone on the court (plus-14.9 net rating, per NBA.com/Stats) than DeRozan alone (plus-14.2). As a result, I'm inclined to give DeRozan the narrow nod.
East frontcourt
LeBron James
Position: SF
Cleveland Cavaliers
Experience: 14 years
James has been the league's best player and is the early front-runner for MVP.
The question is whether James, at 33, is having one of the best seasons ever by a player of his age. Indeed, he is currently on pace for the most WARP by a player during a season he finished at 33 or older.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Position: SF
Milwaukee Bucks
Experience: 4 years
With James Harden's injury, Antetokounmpo has ascended to second in the league in WARP.
Clearly, fans have noticed Antetokounmpo taking another leap after winning Most Improved Player last season. He was the leading vote-getter in the first round of returns.
Al Horford
Position: PF/C
Boston Celtics
Experience: 10 years
Don't underestimate Horford's importance to the Celtics' posting the East's best record thus far. His versatility has allowed Brad Stevens to play lineups both big (alongside starting center Aron Baynes) and small (with Horford at center against smaller, more versatile opponents).
That is reflected in his impact on Boston's net rating, which is 7.3 points worse with him on the bench, according to NBA.com/Stats -- a bigger on/off gap than Irving's. That gives Horford the nod over Andre Drummond, whose team has played better with him on the bench, Joel Embiid's superior play in far fewer minutes and Kevin Love's outstanding offense and subpar defense for a center.
West backcourt
James Harden
Position: PG
Houston Rockets
Experience: 8 years
One spot in the West backcourt belongs to Harden, who was the front-runner for MVP before a hamstring strain sidelined him at the beginning of the new year. Opponents have yet to figure out how to defend Harden in the context of Houston's well-spaced floor, and even when playing with one of the greatest point guards in league history (Chris Paul), Harden has been the unquestioned lead ball handler.
Stephen Curry
Position: PG
Golden State Warriors
Experience: 8 years
There are three starting-caliber guards in the West and just two spots, which means a tough choice between the past two MVPs: Curry and Russell Westbrook. Curry has missed 14 games, primarily with a sprained ankle. When on the court, however, he has played nearly as well as ever. His player win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) is tops in the league, and he's second to Harden in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).
After a slow start, Westbrook is up to third in Basketball-Reference.com's value over replacement player metric, as well as RPM wins. Although his efficiency remains off last year's MVP pace, after he deferred to new teammates Carmelo Anthony and Paul George early in the season, Westbrook's role is nearly as large. Either is a reasonable choice, but with only two spots available, I'm giving Curry the edge on the basis of his superior performance on a per-minute basis.
West frontcourt
Kevin Durant
Position: SF
Golden State Warriors
Experience: 10 years
This hasn't been the greatest offensive season for Durant, who saw his efficiency slide when he was thrust into a leading role with Curry (and also at times Draymond Green) out of the lineup.
At the same time, he has improbably emerged as one of the league's top shot-blockers. Although that might not necessarily make Durant a Defensive Player of the Year front-runner, given that the Warriors' defense has actually been better with him on the bench, it strengthens his case for a starting spot.
Anthony Davis
Position: PF/C
New Orleans Pelicans
Experience: 5 years
Davis' progression into one of the league's top all-around forces continues unabated. Asked to create less of his own offense with another All-Star alongside him in DeMarcus Cousins, Davis is making a career-high 58.5 percent of his 2-point attempts and has improved his true shooting percentage from .580 to .640.
Yet he is still capable of getting his own: With Cousins on the bench, Davis' usage rate increases from 25.0 percent of the Pelicans' plays to 33.4 percent, while his true shooting percentage remains a respectable .593, per NBA.com/Stats.
DeMarcus Cousins
Position: C
New Orleans Pelicans
Experience: 7 years
The last starting spot in the West has no shortage of contenders. Young big men Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns have been impressive offensively on teams likely to return to the playoffs. LaMarcus Aldridge has recaptured his prime form in a larger role for the San Antonio Spurs, while Draymond Green remains the best defender of the group by a wide margin.
Then there is Cousins, the most fascinating case from a statistical standpoint. He has evolved into a force both inside and out, and he ranks sixth in the NBA in both WARP and RPM wins. Yet the Pelicans have been far better this season with just Davis on the court (plus-9.4 net rating) than Cousins by himself (minus-5.0) or even both big men (plus-3.7). What to make of that?
As often seems to be the case, 3-point defense is a major culprit. With just Davis on the court, opposing teams are making 28.7 percent of their 3-pointers, according to NBAwowy.com, which would be the league's lowest mark by a wide margin. With just Cousins on the court, they're shooting 40.3 percent, which would be the league's highest mark. There's no evidence to suggest that an individual player has control over how well opponents shoot over such a small sample (237 attempts with Davis, 313 with Cousins).
As frustrating as Cousins' unwillingness to get back on defense in transition might be, the 3s are responsible for New Orleans' defending worse with him on the court. According to Second Spectrum's qSQ metric, the quality of the shots opponents get is almost identical with Cousins on the court and Davis on the bench (52.0 percent) as vice versa (51.9 percent). Take away opponent 3-point shooting, and Cousins' dominant offense makes him the best choice for this spot.