- Close
ESPN- NBA draft analyst and writer
Joined ESPN.com in July 2017
Founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams
Duke freshman Marvin Bagley is playing at an extremely high level through the first 11 games of his collegiate career. The smooth 18-year-old is leading the ACC in scoring (21.9 PPG) while ranking third in the NCAA in win shares and 10th in the country in rebounds per game. Duke is 11-0 and the unanimous No. 1-ranked team in the nation, and Bagley sits at No. 2 on our most recent 2018 NBA mock draft as a result.
Aside from the eye injury that sidelined him after 10 minutes against Michigan State, Bagley has had as consistent of an 11-game start to his NCAA career as any 18-year-old in recent memory. Excluding the Champions Classic, he has scored at least 18 points in every game, while grabbing double-figure rebounds in all but one -- and he's not just producing against low-major schools. In three games against Texas, Florida and Indiana, Bagley averaged 29 points and 13.3 rebounds in 38.7 minutes.
Are we watching the makings of an NBA star, or are some concerns about his pro fit legitimate? ESPN draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz discuss.
Givony: As we discussed in August, when he initially made the decision to reclassify, NBA scouts had little to go off due to the one-and-done rule that prevents them from entering high school or AAU gyms. Part of that is due to the somewhat unconventional path Bagley has been on.
He never made an official appearance for USA Basketball (that's largely blamed on his father's over-involvement), which robbed him of exposure and high-level experience. He also missed out on the high school all-star game circuit that plays a crucial role in NBA teams getting to know players through the many practices and scrimmages they are allowed to attend.
While Bagley put up dominant numbers in the hyper-competitive Nike EYBL AAU circuit, his team (coached by his father) went 5-16 this past spring and summer, and he had a disappointing ending to his high school season, losing in the first round of the Southern California regional state playoffs. He was basically allowed to do whatever he wanted in those settings, including take any shot he desired, not put much effort in defensively and just basically run up and down the floor operating strictly off his (immense) talent.
With all that in mind, it's pretty amazing to see how quickly Bagley has made the transition from being a junior in high school to a college basketball superstar. His numbers put him in elite company historically for an 18-year old, and you have to wonder how much more room he has to improve considering he has barely been coached until he arrived at Duke, and he just hasn't played all that much "real" competitive and organized basketball until last month.
Just how rare are his scoring and rebounding numbers historically? These are all the teenagers who have averaged 27 points and 13 rebounds per-40 minutes in NCAA play, according to our database. It's a pretty exclusive list.
Mike, the NBA game has evolved quite a bit from the time most of these players were in college, and there are certainly some things to talk about regarding how Bagley fits into the modern game. What do you see, and what are some of the concerns NBA folks will be discussing leading up to June?
Schmitz: Bagley has clearly been incredibly productive thus far, and there's quite a bit of upside moving forward. With that said, there are some question marks in terms of where his best minutes will come at the NBA level.
Sure, traditional positions are extinct, and you figure most teams that can draft a talent like Bagley will build their rosters around him. But it's fair to ask: What type of player do you slot Bagley next to in order to accentuate his strengths and hide his weaknesses?
A frontcourt partner will need to help with these three shortcomings:
Although he's shooting 35 percent from 3 on 20 attempts, Bagley isn't yet a consistent floor spacer and more than 77 percent of his shots come via at-the-rim finishes or post-ups, according to Synergy Sports.
He's not the most advanced facilitator at this stage, with a 0.77 assist-to-turnover rate.
He struggles to defend with consistency, mostly on the interior, and isn't overly long with a 7-foot-0½ wingspan (measured when he was 17.3 years old, he's now 18.7).
Bagley is likely at his best functioning more as a small-ball 5 on the offensive end, at least at this stage of his development. While he can grab and go in transition, and he's showing improvement as a passer, most of his damage comes inside the arc, and a paint clogged up with another interior big man would certainly limit the space he has to work with as a finisher, where he's converting 71.6 percent of his attempts. So pairing Bagley with a player who can space the floor and playmake for others would be ideal from an offensive standpoint. Those players certainly exist in the small-ball-4 mold, but the fit gets a little hairy when you consider the other side of the ball.
Bagley has really struggled as an interior defender this season. While 6-11 and quick off the floor, he doesn't have the massive wingspan, powerful frame, physicality or natural shot-blocking instincts to act as a defensive anchor.
Bagley has had his issues handling stronger big men in the paint so far this season. While the post-up game is certainly taking a back seat in the NBA, battling big men such as DeMarcus Cousins and Joel Embiid would be a tall order for Bagley, as it is for most of the NBA. You can see his struggles here:
De'Ron Davis throws up a shot against Marvin Bagley III and gets the bounce off the back of the rim to fall plus the foul.
Bagley isn't the most active off-ball defender either, especially in rim-protection situations. He's averaging fewer than 1.0 steals and 1.3 blocks per 40 minutes this season, putting him in a historical group that isn't all that inspiring. (Bagley is currently at 0.9 steals and 1.2 blocks per-40.) Here are the recent first-round picks who meet the same steals and blocks criteria:
Bagley doesn't always jump to the ball or put himself in position to make a play at the rim. And even when he is in position, he too often stands and watches rather than using his quick-leaping ability to get up and alter shots. Jonathan, as you mentioned, he was rarely asked to defend at the high school level, and we're seeing that bleed over to the college game far too often:
Devonte Green bounces a terrific pass to De'Ron Davis who slams the big two-handed dunk.
Texas' Dylan Osetkowski drives from the baseline to finish with the one-handed dunk.
Bagley will likely be at his best guarding the perimeter early on in his career. He has good feet and excellent agility, but he's also had his issues keeping the ball contained at times, mostly due to a lack of experience with nuanced pick-and-roll coverages:
Texas' Kerwin Roach II continues his dunk show as he gives the Longhorns' the 72-70 lead over the Blue Devils.
With that said, he has the feet to switch on the perimeter and the agility to stay with 4s quite easily, so he shouldn't have much of an issue guarding above the arc consistently in the future. Watch him here against Chris Chiozza. He shows he can sit down in a stance and track guards after switches while getting up to protect the rim when he's locked in:
Marvin Bagley III with the huge block and hustles to the other end for the lay-in.
He's also quick enough off his feet to contest jump shooters like Jalen Hudson or make plays around the rim when he's dialed in:
That bodes well for his future on the defensive end, and the fact that he's an excellent rebounder for his position will help make up for some of his shortcomings. Bagley's offensive motor runs hot, and he plays with a level of aggression you don't always see from 18-year-olds, so with added experience and discipline that could very well be channeled on defense.
Projecting Bagley forward, only three NBA players who spent legitimate time at the 4 and 5 last season averaged at least 1.5 3-pointers made and 1.5 blocked shots per 40 minutes with an assist-to-turnover rate better than 1.0: Kevin Durant, DeMarcus Cousins and James Johnson. When you lower the 3s and blocked shots numbers to 1.0, the list expands to guys such Karl-Anthony Towns, Al Horford, the Gasol brothers and Draymond Green, as well as less gifted passers such as Kristaps Porzingis and Myles Turner. So, remember that there just aren't many big men who check all of these boxes.
Still, the hope would be that Bagley continues to make incremental improvements as a shooter, passer and interior defender. The fact that he can play either big spot in a pinch speaks to his versatility, and spending too much time nitpicking his future fit could cause scouts to miss out on what he does do that makes him so special, which has certainly happened in the past (look at how John Collins fell to No. 19 in 2017).
The fact that Bagley is a walking double-double and already making strides both as a shooter and passer is extremely encouraging when coupled with his smooth athleticism, tremendous scoring instincts and aggressive mindset. More plays like the spot 3 and post feed below will certainly help ease the minds of some scouts who aren't sold on Bagley as a potential No. 1 pick:
Alex O'Connell finds Marvin Bagley III who hits a 3-point jumper for Duke.
Grayson Allen jets through the lane and dishes to No. 1 recruit Marvin Bagley III who finishes with the reverse jam. Bagley III then shows impressive vision kicking it out to Allen who drains the 3-pointer in Duke's win over Northwest Missouri State.
Jonathan, where are you at on this front? How does Bagley's offensive game translate, and how good of a shooter do you think he can become?
Givony: I think we feel similarly, and it's important to note how much the lack of experience Bagley possessed coming into this season has to play a factor in our evaluation of his long-term upside. He's such a gifted player that he's able to basically roll out of bed and give you 22 and 11 almost without even playing particularly well. You have to wonder how he will evolve into his 20s and how much better he could become down the road with added coaching and experience.
The shooting will be an especially important component in his NBA fit and will be interesting to track as the season moves on. We have to note that he's hitting only 60 percent of his free throws, which is not a great sign. NBA teams will be paying close attention to that and his 3-pointer -- not just in games, but also in Duke practices, before games and in the pre-draft circuit if he does any workouts. Prior to Duke, he shot 66 percent from the free throw line (400-602).
Bagley's mechanics are actually pretty good, and I don't think it will take too much tweaking for him to evolve into a consistent 3-point threat over time. If he can do that, it will make him much easier to fit into traditional two-big lineups at power forward, while also spending time as a small-ball center surrounded by guards and wings.
With that in mind, I wanted to see how his shooting and shot distribution have evolved from his high school and AAU days to what we're seeing now at Duke.
Our friends at Krossover have been tracking Bagley with video and shot-chart data since the spring of 2015, right after he turned 16 years old. They have 81 games in their database, more than twice what we'll have from the college season at Duke.
For me, it's always interesting to see where players started from in order to evaluate both where they currently are and try to figure out what they might become down the road. I went back to the first 3-pointers that Bagley attempted in their database (May of 2015). Bagley's mechanics were actually fluid already then, both pulling up and off the dribble. In my 15 years on the scouting trail watching NBA prospects of all ages, I haven't seen many 6-foot-10 16-year-olds who can look this smooth pulling up off the dribble from beyond the arc. It's actually fascinating to see how little his mechanics have changed from then to now.
Bagley was quite a diverse scorer in his high school and AAU days, as you can see in his Krossover shot chart, which includes data on 1,300 field goal attempts. Some of that is due to the nature of those competitions, which is a lot more free-flowing and loosey-goosey than the more structured environment of college.
He was dominant around the basket (hitting 68 percent), where almost two-thirds of his offense came, but converted only 38 of his 194 3-pointers (19.6 percent).
Part of Bagley's struggles as a shooter have to do with his shot-selection, which has never been considered his strength. He has done a better job at Duke of staying within himself, but has reverted back to his high school days on a couple of opportunities. Watch him at the end of regulation vs. Texas at the PK80, where he tossed up an ill-advised 3-pointer with a slower big man guarding him on an iso:
With less than 10 seconds to go in the game, Marvin Bagley III misses the shot and Texas' defense comes up strong under the rim to force overtime.
These are the types of shots you'd see Bagley taking multiple times every game at the high school and AAU level. For the record, Bagley's passing metrics in high school and AAU were much worse (0.46 assist-to-turnover rate) than what we've seen at Duke (0.77). He's still not a great passer, but it has been encouraging to see him cut down on his turnovers as much as he has thus far (10.5 percent turnover rate).
One last thing to note about Bagley's shot-selection in college: He has almost completely cut out midrange jumpers from his arsenal, which is something NBA scouts like to see. Before, 21 percent of his field goal attempts in high school came off midrange jumpers. Now he has taken only three shots all season from 16-23 feet, according to Synergy shot-chart data.
Mike, what will scouts be watching moving forward, and what challenges does Bagley face in the near future?
Schmitz: While tracking Bagley's defensive intensity, shooting, and playmaking, scouts will also want to see how he adjusts to potential double-teams. Will opponents catch onto his left-hand dominance and reliance on scoring in the paint or drawing fouls? If so, how will he adjust to different defensive schemes that may force him to think the game at a higher level?
In the short term, there aren't many must-see, head-to-head battles on the schedule. Bagley will certainly be tested as the Blue Devils get further into conference play, though.
Can he score efficiently against an athletic Miami team that currently ranks sixth in the NCAA in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com? How will he handle Virginia's pack-line defense that sits atop KenPom's defensive rankings? How will he adjust to the length of Louisville, led by defensive stalwarts Anas Mahmoud (1.8 steals and 6.6 blocks per 40) and Raymond Spalding (3.3 steals and 3.1 blocks per 40)? Will he hit the freshman wall that is almost inevitable for most highly touted 18-year-olds?
While tracking Bagley's progression, scouts will also continue to evaluate and gather intel on Arizona's Deandre Ayton, who is averaging 19.6 points and 11.2 rebounds through nine games. Aside from Slovenian sensation Luka Doncic, who currently sits at No. 1 on our board, Ayton appears to be Bagley's biggest competition for the top player selected come June, at least at this stage of the process.