Five-star forward Marvin Bagley III's announcement that he is reclassifying into the class of 2017 and enrolling at Duke has huge ramifications for the 2018 NBA draft, which was already top-heavy with a few star prospects and now features another serious contender for the No. 1 pick.
Since one NBA season will elapse from Bagley's high school graduation and he will turn 19 in March, he will satisfy the requirements of Article X of the NBA collective bargaining agreement. That makes him eligible to enter the draft next April, should he choose.
Bagley will enroll immediately at Duke and NBA teams will clamor to attend practices once they officially start in early October. Although he has not yet been cleared to compete by the NCAA, a decision could already be made by then. One college assistant of a school that was recruiting him said it should be "a matter of days or weeks."
Bagley has reportedly been preparing for this process for years and has been in regular contact with the NCAA.
"[Bagley's father] is way too detail-oriented for this not to work," the assistant said. "He's graduating. His grades are great. He's going to be eligible academically. Because of his path, changing high schools, and doing substantial amount of work online, they've been thinking about this for a long time. Freshman, sophomore, junior year, he's been taking more courses all along. He took two semesters' worth of classes just this summer. The dad has been in touch with the NCAA and they are in a good spot."
So, what kind of prospect is Bagley? That's a big question for NBA teams, since scouts haven't been allowed to attend a single game, practice or camp he has actually participated in due to age-limit rules instituted in 2005. Should the NCAA elect not to clear him, this would likely be the first time a team is forced to draft a prospect without ever having an opportunity to watch him play live in a five-on-five contest,
That likely won't be a deal breaker due to the abundance of film NBA teams can acquire from the 2017 Nike EYBL season this past spring and summer, Sierra Canyon high school footage, as well as the possibility of attending private workouts. There, they will see exactly how talented Bagley is, which may make it difficult to pass on him early in the draft.
That talent starts with his strong physical tools. He was measured at 6-foot-10½ last summer, with a well-proportioned frame that has plenty of room for added bulk. He's a smooth and fluid athlete, quick and effortless off his feet, which allows him to play above the rim with ease and make his presence felt on the offensive glass.
Bagley is at his best handling the ball in the open floor or creating his own shot in the half court, where he has a strong first step and excellent body control to slither his way around defenders and finish creatively around the rim, getting to the free throw line at an excellent rate. He has a good feel for the game on both sides of the court, and he's highly creative with the way he whips the ball around the floor (his ability to throw outlet passes ahead in transition is especially impressive). He's a team player and does a nice job of taking what the defense gives him.
Bagley's perimeter shooting is a significant point of interest and could ultimately determine what position he ends up playing most prominently in the NBA. He has shown the ability to make open 3-pointers, with solid mechanics on his jumper from the waist up including a nice follow-through. That shot could be honed into a more reliable weapon in time.
With that said, he hit just 28-116 3-pointers (24 percent) in 49 Nike EYBL and Sierra Canyon high school games, and 238-368 (65 percent) of his free throw attempts. He doesn't always shoot the ball the same way, at times sporting a deep knee bend and contorting his hips sideways on his release, even adding in some side spin rotation.
Like many young star prospects, Bagley has plenty of room to improve on the defensive end. That's an area he can likely make significant strides in at the college level.
He's not the most physical player and he tends to stand around a bit at times on the defensive glass. He can also allow stronger players to push him around and doesn't insert himself into every play. His defensive fundamentals could use some work, as you'll rarely see him box out or work to deny post position, and he can get caught gambling in the passing lanes or biting on pump-fakes, thinking he can recover for blocks. That was often the case at the high school and AAU level, but that should change against better competition.
Bagley's motor fluctuates at times. It doesn't always look like he's operating at maximum intensity, something he could get away with up until now because of his talent level. Despite the fact that he doesn't have freakishly long arms, he actually has terrific timing pursuing blocks and rebounds, naturally gravitating toward the ball. He may be better suited playing the center position full time in college, benefiting from the added spacing enjoy offensively without another big body clogging up the middle, but it remains to be seen what his optimal position will be in today's NBA.
Bagley's situation will be monitored closely by all 30 NBA teams, and will have a significant impact on the way the 2018 NBA draft evolves.
While exceptionally talented, he's not a can't-miss prospect. There actually isn't a great deal separating any of the seven players currently projected in the top half of the lottery, which also includes Michael Porter, DeAndre Ayton, Luka Doncic, Robert Williams, Miles Bridges and Mohamed Bamba. Having a productive, winning season at the college level could go a long ways in both helping Bagley shore up his weaknesses heading into his NBA rookie season and easing some of the concerns teams might have with how little they've been able to actually see him play.
Bagley is arguably the most offensively talented of the big men vying for a spot at the top of the 2018 draft, but he's also the least proven, and without having had the opportunity to showcase himself in the typical places elite high school players compete (USA Basketball, the McDonald's All-American game, the Nike Hoop Summit, Jordan Brand Classic, etc.), the jury is still out for scouts on what exactly to think of him. That's why it's important for him to get cleared by the NCAA eligibility center and play a full college season.