What did Boston Celtics executive Danny Ainge see in Jayson Tatum to trade out of the No. 1 spot and draft him No. 3 overall?
Tatum has been on the NBA radar for the better part of five years. He joined the USA Basketball system as a 14-year-old and has been working with renowned NBA trainer Drew Hanlen since he was a youngster. Tatum debuted at No. 1 on the 2017 DraftExpress mock draft when it was first released in April 2016, and his combination of physical tools and talent were never in question.
What has been surprising, though, is how seamlessly the rookie has adjusted to playing within the flow of an NBA offense, looking significantly better than the isolation-heavy, ball-dominant scorer we saw at Duke.
How has he done it, is it sustainable and what does it mean for his long-term potential?
Greatly improved 3-ball
More of a midrange killer at the youth level, Tatum has made great strides shooting off the catch through 22 games. According to Synergy Sports, he's scoring 1.452 points per possession on 31 unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers, an increase from his 1.216 PPP rate on 37 attempts while at Duke. Most rookies struggle to adjust to the distance of the NBA 3-point line and the closing speed of longer athletes, but Tatum's transition has been as smooth as his long strides and midpost game.
He's making corner 3s at a 61.9 percent clip, 22 percent above the league average. The first quarter of his rookie season is far and away the most confident Tatum has looked shooting the ball at any stage of his development:
1H (0:37) FLA KeVaughn Allen made Layup.
Fans watching Tatum this season would find it hard to believe that he was a career 30.5 percent 3-point shooter on 249 attempts before the regular season tipped off, according to our database. Heading into his freshman year at Duke, Tatum's shooting range was one of his biggest question marks, as you can see from our 2015-16 preseason scouting video:
Tatum's 1.7 made 3s per 40 minutes at Duke and career 83.5 free throw percentage certainly generated optimism heading into last year's draft, but for him to adjust this quickly is a testament to his work ethic, which has long been lauded as one of his biggest strengths. Below you can see Tatum's hesitation in catch-and-shoot situations at Duke. Whether off of dribble handoffs (DHOs) or spot-ups, Tatum's lack of certainty led to contested pullups or travel calls as he put the ball down against soft closeouts.
This is the kind of shot he too often turned down in college:
Tatum's newfound level of confidence as a standstill 3-point shooter has really boosted his efficiency. Playing much more out of spot-up situations -- far and away Tatum's most used play type, according to Synergy -- the 6-foot-8 forward is now able to attack scrambling defenders and use his impressive stride to get to the rim. With less spacing and an inconsistent jumper at the college level, Tatum wasn't able to play off of closeouts nearly as often, which led to unnecessary dribbles and contested pullups. He has benefited greatly from his improved stroke, as well as Boston's spacing, while even stealing some minutes at the 4:
Defenders are now closing out harder and chasing him on DHOs, which has allowed him to utilize his straight-line slashing or pullup game if given space. He's starting to punish teams for going under handoffs, which sets up the rest of his game.
Tatum's being a threat in these situations has forced teams to chase him, which opens lanes to the rim or midrange pullups, where he's still very comfortable.
Keep in mind that Tatum has struggled a little bit when contested, as evident by his 42.9 effective field goal percentage (eFG) on guarded catch-and-shoot jumpers, according to Synergy. Tatum also had an eFG of 42.7 percent in these situations at Duke. Tatum's shooting efficiency could still normalize, especially as teams figure to play him a little more tightly on the perimeter. But so far he has done a tremendous job of answering any questions scouts had about his 3-point accuracy.
Quicker decisions, fewer contested pullups
Tatum's added confidence from 3 along with his more succinct role has led to quicker decisions and more efficient play. Among players under the age of 25 who play at least 20 MPG, Tatum ranks fifth in true shooting percentage, and a lot of that is a product of his improved decision-making. He had a bad habit of playing catch-and-hold basketball at times in the past. The onus was on him to operate as the primary scorer, and he was most comfortable doing that in midrange spots or by way of tough fallaways in the midpost.
Tatum has quickly adjusted to playing much more of a complementary role, making sharper reads and relying less on contested pullups. At Duke, he took nearly the same number of pullups (77) as catch-and-shoot jumpers (78), and he was most efficient as a jump-shooter on shots between 17 feet and the 3-point line (13 of 26), as you can see on his Synergy Sports shot chart below:
Even at summer league and in the preseason (10 games), Tatum was far more reliant on off-the-dribble jumpers (39) than catch-and-shoot shots (14). He's still taking a healthy number of long 2s, but playing next to Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford, Tatum has attempted only 33 pullups to 52 catch-and-shoot jumpers through 22 games. Although he reverts back to his insta-dribble offense at times, he's doing a much better job of attacking on the catch and playing read-and-react basketball. These are the shots Tatum lived off of at Duke that had some teams worried about his efficiency:
With only 8.9 percent of his offense comprised of isolations, compared to 22.8 percent at Duke, Tatum is playing much more instinctual basketball. The catch-and-hold possessions are now few and far between, and he's doing a nice job of attacking off the catch to get into the lane, rather than to pull up for a contested jumper:
He has also become a much more willing ball mover. While always a capable passer, he had his blinders on at times while at Duke:
Now he's doing a nice job of keeping the ball humming on the perimeter and even making more basic reads out of quick-hitting actions.
Aside from his still-polished post-up game (57.7 eFG), Tatum's isolation efficiency has declined considerably, with a 35.7 eFG on 24 isolation possessions. There's little doubt that he can get to his bread-and-butter pullups in the half court, but there were worries about how efficiently Tatum would be able to score playing that brand of basketball, especially because he's a more fluid than explosive athlete.
Tatum has done an excellent job of transitioning away from hero ball, however, fitting in perfectly with the Celtics' young core as more of a catch-all player who can make a shot, attack a closeout, push in transition or punish a switch in the post.
Defending at a high level
Where Tatum has really exceeded expectations is on the defensive end, ranking seventh among all small forwards (and 40th in the entire NBA) in defensive real plus-minus. Although he has always had tools and instincts, he tended to coast a bit defensively, not always displaying consistent toughness and intensity. That hasn't been the case so far in Boston, and Tatum has been a key part of the Celtics' top-ranked defense.
In hindsight, we should have projected Tatum as more of a plus-defender, given how hard it is to find 6-foot-8 forwards with an 8-foot-10½ standing reach and his footwork and anticipation. The fact that Tatum averaged more than 3.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per 40 minutes at the USA level in do-or-die competition could have been more indicative of his potential on that end. But so much of defensive productivity and effort is a product of situation. If Tatum had landed in Phoenix, would he have already extinguished a lot of the bad habits he had at Duke while battling a coaching change and coasting through blowout losses?
Although Tatum averaged an impressive 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks per 40 minutes at Duke, we saw far too many closeouts such as this:
Tatum didn't always work to keep the ball in front of him, looking a bit too casual on a Duke team that ranked 47th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com.
With how well he's shooting the ball, Tatum has transitioned to the small forward spot with ease and has been an impact defender since the season began. He currently ranks fifth in the NBA in defensive win shares, via DraftExpress' database. According to Second Spectrum data, he's better than league average defending in five of seven tracked categories (post-ups and handoffs are his two below-average marks).
On film, it's clear that Tatum is making a much better effort to sit down in a stance, get over screens and recover when he's beaten:
He has looked far more determined to get over ball screens as well, using his thin-legged, wide-shouldered frame and agility to stay attached to the ball:
His tools and fluidity have allowed him to cover ground quickly on closeouts, getting opposing wings off the line while keeping them in front to contest in the paint:
His activity and awareness off the ball have also been sound. Traditionally a plus-rebounder, Tatum has shown he is more than capable of impacting the game on the backboards and off the ball when dialed in.
What's next?
So far, these three improvement areas stand out:
Finishing: 50.8 percent at the rim in the half court, 33rd percentile according to Synergy Sports
Accuracy vs. hard contests and shooting off movement from 3
Becoming a more dynamic ball-screen scorer and passer to bolster his offensive versatility
Still, Tatum has quickly learned how to help Boston win as a piece of the puzzle, rather than trying to dominate games himself as the alpha.
The fact that he already has the tough shot-making and isolation moves of most go-to scorers bodes well for his long-term upside, as he can continue to play a role on a winning team while potentially evolving into a star who is comfortable as the primary option.