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ESPN Senior Writer- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
Kevin Pelton and Mike Schmitz continue their series on rookies, sophomores and more with a close look at Jaylen Brown.
Mike Schmitz: Despite the gruesome opening-night injury to prized offseason acquisition Gordon Hayward, the Boston Celtics have taken the NBA by storm through 19 games, leading the league in wins and defensive efficiency with a roster that features only four players older than 25. The emergence of 21-year-old Jaylen Brown, along with the expedited maturation of rookie Jayson Tatum, is a huge reason for Boston's NBA-best 16-3 record.
Brown ranks second on the Celtics in points, minutes, rebounds and 3-pointers made per game while sitting fourth in the NBA in scoring average (16.1) among players under 22 years old. He has had an excellent start to his sophomore season, which is something most statistical models would not have predicted when the Celtics drafted Brown third overall in 2016 after a single year at California.
How has he done it, will it last, and what does this strong start mean for his NBA ceiling?
The consensus of the statistical projections tracked by ToTheMean.com pegged Brown as the 16th-best player in the 2016 draft class.
Kevin, despite factoring in where Brown ranked on draft boards, your consensus projections had Brown slotted at 39th overall. On the flip side, the traditional scouting consensus remained that Brown, the Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) No. 3 recruit in his 2015 high school class, was much closer to a top-five-caliber prospect. As you can see on our mock draft history, Brown was ranked first overall when we unveiled our 2016 mock draft in September 2014, and he stayed more or less within the top five from that point on.
Although the general public and Celtics fans alike groaned over passing on Providence guard Kris Dunn -- or thought Boston should have traded the pick for a veteran -- most NBA scouts remained steadfast that Brown was among the cream of the crop.
Why exactly did the statistical projections rate him so poorly, behind prospects such as Henry Ellenson, Diamond Stone and Deyonta Davis?
Kevin Pelton: Brown's statistical shortcomings at Cal started with his inefficiency. Among the 51 qualifying Division I players who used at least 30 percent of their team's plays during the 2015-16 season, Brown's .518 true shooting percentage ranked 39th, according to Basketball-Reference.com. The only NBA prospect in the group less efficient than Brown was Seton Hall guard Isaiah Whitehead, who went on to record the NBA's second-most wins below replacement last season as a rookie for the Brooklyn Nets.
Brown's inefficiency extended to the floor game. His assist-to-turnover ratio was 0.65 -- as in 35 percent more turnovers than assists -- the worst ratio by any Division I player with at least 60 assists, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Although Brown's block rate was solid for a wing, his rebound percentage was only slightly better than that of the average college small forward, and he generated few steals.
As a result, Brown's stats-only projection by my WARP system was for minus-0.5 WARP per year during his first five NBA seasons. Typically, players with below-replacement projections never develop into NBA contributors. Although there have been a handful of exceptions -- most notably Taj Gibson, Rodney Hood, Wesley Matthews and Mason Plumlee -- more than 70 percent of such players in my college database went on to perform at or below replacement level in the NBA.
Additionally, no such player before Brown had ever been drafted so high. Joe Alexander, picked eighth in 2008 by the Milwaukee Bucks, previously represented the biggest discrepancy between a player's stats-only projection and his draft slot.
Mike, what about Brown's season at Cal convinced scouts that it wasn't representative of his talent?
Schmitz: Living in Los Angeles, I was able to attend a number of Cal games and practices. What stood out most to me was how poorly Brown's game fit with the Golden Bears' roster and offensive identity. Like Justise Winslow, Brandon Ingram or Jayson Tatum at Duke, Brown would have benefited greatly from playing the 4 in a free-flowing offense that gave him space to cash in on his strengths as a downhill driver. Instead, Brown played mostly on the wing with two traditional bigs -- Ivan Rabb and either Kingsley Okoroh or Kameron Rooks -- clogging the lane.
Former Cal coach Cuonzo Martin certainly won't be confused with Brad Stevens, and guards regularly stonewalled Brown's drives by helping off of nonshooters such as Tyrone Wallace (29.8 3-point percentage) and Sam Singer (27.0 3-point percentage).
Brown has never been the best decision-maker or most instinctual passer, so the lack of spacing led to far too many wild turnovers, charges or forced shots at the rim. He was regularly in foul trouble, and his poor 2-point percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio were largely the product of the system and lack of spacing, along with Brown's lack of overall polish and inconsistent approach.
Outside of Jabari Bird and Jordan Matthews, no Cal player averaged more than one 3-point make per game that season, including Brown, who certainly contributed to the lack of spacing. Never a knockdown shooter by any stretch, Brown's 3-ball lacked fluidity, and his pull-up game was erratic. He lost confidence in his jumper at times, regularly hurting offensive flow by bulldozing into traffic or playing catch-and-hold basketball.
The Golden Bears ranked 162nd in the NCAA in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.com, which means they rarely got in transition, an area in which Brown is arguably most dangerous. As far as offense goes, Brown's subpar efficiency was a not-so-perfect storm of the situation mixing poorly with his strengths and weaknesses.
Brown also didn't do himself any favors with his consistency. At times looking a bit detached from the team, the Georgia native didn't always have the edge with which he won over teams at the 2014 Adidas Eurocamp and beyond.
Known as a tough competitor at a young age, Brown had shown some signs of an inconsistent motor and level of focus on the USA Basketball circuit, causing some teams to ease up on his pre-NCAA potential No. 1 status.
Then Brown folded in March of his lone season in Berkeley, averaging a forgettable 7.8 points, 3.6 turnovers and 4.0 fouls per game in 25.1 minutes over five contests while shooting a dreadful 22.2 percent from 2 and 16.7 percent from 3. He fouled out of Cal's opening-round NCAA tournament game, going 1-for-6 with seven turnovers in 17 minutes. His motor dwindled defensively, and he looked uninterested down the stretch of the season.
Still, the fact that NBA teams were able to get a long look at Brown for more than two years prior to his 34-game sample at Cal -- along with his 7-foot wingspan, explosiveness and shredded 223-pound frame -- was a big reason that he still went third overall.
Scouts evaluated Brown as early as 2013 at Adidas Nations and were able to get eyes on him extensively at 2014 Eurocamp, the 2014 under-18 FIBA Americas, the 2014 Nike Global Challenge, the 2015 Nike Hoop Summit and the 2015 McDonald's All American game.
Brown was as known a commodity as there was in college basketball, and the grassroots scouting that the Celtics did prior to the 2015-16 college season certainly paid dividends. The Celtics did their homework on Brown, who worked out for Boston twice during the pre-draft process and obviously impressed them with his physical profile and flashes of skill.
Pelton: Intriguingly, Ken Pomeroy was able to provide me with Brown's splits by position after the draft, and they confirm everything you suspected. As a small forward, Brown made just 38.7 percent of his 2-point attempts as compared to 54.6 percent when playing power forward. Overall, Brown's true shooting percentage improved from .463 as a small forward to .569 as a power forward, an enormous difference.
At the same time, part of the reason for Brown's improved efficiency at power forward was his taking fewer of the 3-pointers he made at just a 29.4 percent clip at Cal. Playing largely on the wing in the NBA -- including nominally as a shooting guard this season -- Brown has had no choice but to take 3s to keep defenders honest.
After shooting a credible 34.1 percent as a rookie, Brown is up to an impressive 41.1 percent this season. Was that kind of improvement predictable? How else has Brown developed his game in the NBA?
Schmitz: We talk all the time about the importance of situation in terms of early production, and Brown is the perfect example. If he had been drafted fourth overall by Phoenix or fifth by Minnesota, this article would likely have a completely different theme. Brown has benefited greatly from the spacing and movement that Stevens' offense features, especially with Al Horford's shooting and ability to put the ball on the deck and facilitate at a high level.
Horford's gravity, along with the shooting of Tatum and Kyrie Irving, creates driving lanes for Brown, who has cut his turnover percentage almost in half since leaving Cal. Stevens does a great job of getting Brown going in the post, where he's able to use his strength and footwork effectively. The Celtics have no problem playing small, and with a handful of passers on the floor at once, Brown is able to be himself as a driver, even if he's still struggling to finish, converting just 44.8 percent at the rim, according to Synergy.
More than just the spacing, what has really unlocked Brown's game is his improved shooting stroke. He shoots with far more confidence than he did at Cal, with a much quicker release and cleaner mechanics. There aren't many moving parts to his new-and-improved catch-and-shoot 3-ball, and he has made great strides off the dribble as well, shooting an effective 64.7 percent on 17 attempts. Defenses are no longer closing out soft, which has allowed Brown to use his long strides and powerful athleticism to attack the rim.
Defensively, Brown still has occasional lapses, but he's playing much harder and smarter under Stevens, and I think the fact that he was brought along slowly while contributing to a winning situation as a rookie is a big reason for that. He has been able to recapture the competitive streak that he showed early in his prep career and lost for stretches along the way at Cal.
The overall culture and his ability to play with his good friend Tatum have helped Brown, who has rarely lacked confidence, feel more comfortable this season.
Pelton: Despite his improved efficiency, Brown still doesn't rate as an exceptional offensive player, in large part because of his assist deficit. Nearly three-quarters of Brown's shots this season have come off assists, per Basketball-Reference.com, while Brown's own assist rate (1.4 per 100 team plays) ranks in the bottom 10 among perimeter players. As a result, Brown's offensive rating in Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus statistic is slightly below average (minus-0.1).
Most of Brown's value has come at the defensive end, where he has been outstanding. Brown's ability to defend both go-to wing scorers and big men has been crucial to the Celtics' switch-heavy defense. When Brown has defended the ball handler in a screen-and-roll and switched on the screener, opponents have averaged just .568 points per play, according to analysis by Second Spectrum.
Boston's defense, always stingy this season, has allowed just 94.7 points per 100 possessions with Brown on the court -- 5.3 fewer than with him on the bench. As a result, Brown's plus-1.5 defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus leads all shooting guards.
Schmitz: As you outlined, he has been tremendous on the defensive end. I think the potential he showed at a young age to be a versatile defensive-stopper type is one of the main reasons the Celtics felt comfortable drafting Brown third overall. He fits the switch-heavy NBA with his quick feet, sturdy frame, long arms and closing speed.
As the numbers allude to, Brown's offense is still somewhat a work in progress despite the clear signs of growth. Continuing to think the game at a higher level and study which reads to make at certain points in the game will certainly help him expand his abilities. He still has strides to make as a finisher as well. But overall, there's a lot to like about his two-way play, confidence and incremental offensive strides while impacting winning on a title contender.
Kevin, given his trajectory through two seasons, how likely is it that Brown is able to develop into an All-Star-caliber wing?
Pelton: I'm curious to see how Brown's role in the Boston offense evolves. As you mentioned in the introduction, Hayward's injury gave Brown an opportunity to be more involved. With Hayward, Irving and perhaps Tatum all ahead of him in the Celtics' offensive pecking order -- not to mention Horford -- Brown might continue to play more of a complementary role than the leading one he had at Cal. If so, All-Star status might be hard for him to attain in Boston.
We'll also have to see whether Brown can maintain his 40 percent 3-point shooting this season. If he's more like an average 3-point shooter, Brown is not nearly as valuable a role player. Still, at worst, he should be an excellent defender who shoots well enough to keep defenses honest and is a far more versatile scorer than the typical 3-and-D role player. For the third pick in what looks like a relatively weak draft, that's good return.