How is a Chris Paul and James Harden backcourt going to work? What's next for Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Doc Rivers and the Clippers?
Our crew debates and predicts the fallout from the wild trade.
1. Chris Paul and James Harden in the same backcourt: How's that gonna work?
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: Quite efficiently. The assembly of any superteam, almost by definition, requires some individual sacrifice, and there's plenty of precedent in recent years.
They're both ball-dominant guards, but crafty, pragmatic All-Stars who want to win have a knack for problem-solving. That will probably require each to play off the ball more than they're accustomed to, but Paul is an outstanding spot-up shooter, and Harden can catch-and-go with the best of them.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Probably not without some hiccups. These are two of the most ball-dominant players on the planet, but they have the skill set to make it work.
I was much more worried about Dwyane Wade and LeBron James coexisting in Miami because of their spotty shooting record. But Paul shot 49.3 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s last season, and Harden wasn't too far behind. If there's an offensive mind who can do it, it's Mike D'Antoni. Still, it will be bumpy at first. It was for Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry, too.
Andrew Han, ESPN.com: It's not a perfect fit on offense. Harden is a run-and-gun maestro who has embraced D'Antoni's system, whereas Paul is as methodical as they come, wanting to pound the rock into the hardwood until he sees the perfect play materialize.
But they're both so gifted offensively that the Rockets will hum on that end of the court even if they have to play tag with the ball. It's the defensive end that should give people pause for concern.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Very well, I think. For one, the Rockets should definitely stagger their minutes so each player will find himself on the court with the other for about only half the time. When playing together, the presence of another creator will allow both, especially Harden, to exert critically needed energy on the defensive end. On top of all that, Paul's basketball IQ is simply too high to not make it work.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: In basketball terms, I think it should work well. Having two elite ball handlers allows the Rockets to get both of them plenty of rest, use them in dual pick-and-rolls like how the Portland Trail Blazers use Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum and have one of them space the floor because both are good shooters.
The question is how happy the two of them, particularly Paul, are going to be sacrificing some of the possessions and, more important, decision-making power they've both enjoyed.
2. How close does this put the Rockets to the Warriors?
Arnovitz: Closer, but not close enough ... at present. The Rockets are still one additional player away from entering above-60-win territory, but they're now primed to add additional talent, preferably of the two-way variety. That's because the widest chasm between the Rockets and Warriors is on the defensive side of the ball. Closing that gap is even more essential than, say, finding a forward who can score.
Han: The arrival of the point god in Houston probably pushes the Rockets past the Spurs (Gregg Popovich and San Antonio are a scheme CP3 is all too familiar with in the postseason), but Golden State is still #lightyears ahead. Andre Iguodala's flirtation with suitors would be the first crack in the Warriors' armor, but even then the Rockets require more two-way talent on the wings (e.g. Paul George) to even sniff Oakland.
Pelton: Right now, the Rockets have exactly six rotation-caliber players under contract, so it's a little premature to discuss how they compare with the Warriors. But even if they don't acquire George and just get the expected return with their non-taxpayer midlevel and biannual exceptions plus minimum-salary contracts, I'd project them second in the Western Conference behind Golden State.
I still don't see a great five-man lineup to match up with the Warriors' best, so I'd have the Warriors as heavy favorites in a hypothetical playoff matchup.
Haberstroh: To steal a line from Fran Fraschilla, the Rockets were one move away from being one move away. So they're still a move away, but this is a heck of a move from Daryl Morey.
Their defense still needs some oomph in the frontcourt to compete at a championship level, but Morey has shown he is aggressive in making that kind of move. I have more faith in George than Carmelo Anthony filling that role. I don't know if anyone is available that can fill the Draymond Green role, but that's going to be what it takes for them to compete at the same level as the Warriors, who just wrapped up the three winningest seasons in NBA history.
Engelmann: I love Paul, who finished the season ranked second in Real Plus-Minus (RPM), behind only LeBron James. That said, Beverley has always been rated highly by plus-minus metrics, and Lou Williams is coming off a very strong 2016-17 campaign (though he was better with the Lakers), so the Rockets are losing two players ranked in the No. 40-55 range. Still, this move probably closes the gap between the Rockets and Warriors by about 50 percent.
3. How does this trade affect Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Doc Rivers?
Pelton: If the relationship between Paul and his younger teammates was as bad as rumored at times, it might help the Clippers' chances of re-signing Griffin and keeping Jordan when he can opt for free agency next summer. The Clippers did get enough in return for Paul to reasonably contend for a playoff spot next season if Griffin returns. Whether that would be enough to convince him to stay, or keep Rivers in his dual coaching and front-office roles, remains to be seen.
Engelmann: I'd assume the Clippers will now throw the super-max at Griffin so as to not disappear into obscurity, and I don't see Griffin declining. I doubt they'll look into trading Jordan, for whom life just got a little bit tougher because he won't be spoon-fed perfect alley-oops by the league's best point guard anymore.
Arnovitz: If the Clippers were entertaining any possibility of pivoting toward a younger roster with greater cap flexibility, then they now have cause to move that way. In addition to Paul departing, J.J. Redick has signaled that he won't remain with the team. I'm not certain Paul's departure is an enormous factor in Griffin's decision -- he might want a change of scenery in any event. And for Rivers, the likelihood increased that he goes Pat Riley at some point in the next few seasons and retreats upstairs.
Han: There has always been an uneasy truce in Lob City, as both Paul and Griffin were dynamic playmakers who operated best with the ball in their hands. With CP3 gone, Griffin might find a complementary roster better suited to tap into his full potential.
Rivers might have murkier waters, though. The biggest argument for Rivers' dual role was that he could attract and retain the top talent in the league with uniformity of front office and coaching staff. But through four years, his star power failed to attract any marquee free agents at a discount, he almost lost Jordan before a last-minute change of heart and he was just snubbed by (possibly) the best player in franchise history.
Haberstroh: Everything is on the table. I wouldn't be surprised if all three of those names -- Griffin, Jordan and Rivers -- are somewhere else this time next year. The Warriors are just too good to think this group can win it in L.A.
I thought Paul was the most likely to stay and try to lure LeBron James to Clipperland in 2018, but that's obviously a pipe dream now. I think it's a safer bet that Griffin leaves for Miami or Boston now that the Clippers' big three is broken up. Given Griffin's injury history, I'd imagine he wants to contend as long as his body holds up.
4. Who comes out of this trade best and worst?
Haberstroh: Morey comes out the best, and Rivers comes out the worst. The Clippers' price tag to pry Rivers from Boston was real trade assets, big money and front-office power. And without even a conference finals appearance, that's a tough pill to swallow. Now that Paul has bolted, Rivers' championship mystique fades by the day.
Arnovitz: It's not a zero-sum game, and there are far more winners than losers. Paul gets a new opportunity with a fresh cast, and Harden picks up a running mate. Morey will be heralded by capologists and hoop-minded economists as a stinking genius. Though they suffer the indignity of losing Paul, the Clippers took a decent haul from the deal.
The loser might be Patrick Beverley, who played his way from undrafted vagabond to the All-Defensive first team as the guts and soul of the Rockets.
Pelton: I guess Morey comes out best. While this trade is a big risk because Paul can leave as a free agent next summer, Morey has always advocated the need to take risks to win championships, particularly in this superteam era.
I think Montrezl Harrell comes out worst. Unless the Clippers trade Jordan, it's going to be tough for him to play many minutes in a contract year, and I doubt he'll be as efficient offensively with the Clippers as he was in D'Antoni's system.
Han: If we take the statement that Paul was leaving as the base, the Clippers coming out with any trade is great (not to mention receiving more than serviceable players in the haul). It was just a few years ago that the other Los Angeles team lost Dwight Howard to Houston and had nothing to show for it -- and that could just have easily been the Clippers.
Boston seems like it was the most adversely affected here. Outside of Lakers innuendo and Cavs machinations, the Celtics were the clearest frontrunners for George. And then in walked Morey ...
Engelmann: I think Paul comes out best: He gets to go up against the Warriors with a stronger team, one that can still offer him the a massive contract in the summer of 2018 if he decides to stick around.
For the Rockets, it's a little scary, because Paul's contract runs for only one more season. Chemistry or other issues might motivate him to leave, and they'd be left with nothing.
5. What happens when CP3 becomes a free agent in 2018?
Haberstroh: He'll go to the place that offers the best chance to win a title. He'll be 33 years old at that point and even more desperate than he is now to fill that empty space on the shelf. I don't think he'll have a deep allegiance to Houston, but Harden, Paul, D'Antoni and Morey have one thing in common: They want that first title baaaadly. Can they lure LeBron to make it happen? Or does a LeBron-Paul linkup happen elsewhere, like New York? I can't wait to see how this one shakes out.
Arnovitz: If the Rockets play to a respectable second place in the Western Conference (or better), Paul could choose to remain with the Rockets -- adding an additional (and particular) superstar.
Han: Ever the cunning Machiavelli (or Sun Tzu if you prefer), Chris Paul will take the year to assess his new Houston digs. Will he jibe with Harden on the court? Can much-lauded Rockets GM Daryl Morey put a title contender around his megastar backcourt? If not, CP3 (who can now be a free agent in the same year as LeBron, Wade and Melo) might set sail for a different ship of banana provenance.
Engelmann: Tough to foresee, but one scenario that I consider somewhat likely is Iguodala re-signing with the Warriors, who would storm through the playoffs once again, leading LeBron and Chris Paul to pair up to create their own super-team. But where? I'd imagine it'd probably not be in Houston.
Pelton: Despite how I answered the first question, I think Paul remains a heavy favorite to re-sign with the Rockets. Each year that passes, the fifth season only Houston can offer becomes valuable because it becomes increasingly unlikely Paul could recoup that kind of value as a free agent at age 38.