The deal
Rockets get: Guard Chris Paul
Clippers get: Guards Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams, forwards Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell and 2018 first-round pick; plus players on non-guaranteed contracts to match salaries
Houston Rockets: B+
The grade for this trade from the Rockets' standpoint is based on the trade itself, not on the addition of Paul.
Since Paul could have become a free agent Saturday at 12:01 a.m. ET, Houston could simply have signed Paul as a free agent if he wanted to go there and if the Rockets had the cap space. So instead, my grade reflects what the Rockets gave up in this trade versus what they hypothetically would have had to give up to create the necessary cap space for Paul.
Surely, the Rockets have canvassed the market to figure out how much it would cost them to unload the salary necessary to sign Paul outright, which almost certainly would have required including Ryan Anderson in a trade with another team. It's possible that teams were asking too much to take on the remaining three years and $61 million remaining on Anderson's contract, or simply that Houston preferred keeping Anderson for his floor spacing.
No matter what, the Rockets likely would have to give up Beverley, Williams or both to make room for Paul. And Dekker and a first-round pick might have been the cost if the Rockets were forced to put together a package to move Anderson to a team that didn't want him alone.
And with a pair of All-Star starters in the backcourt -- plus Sixth Man Award winner Eric Gordon -- Houston probably decided Anderson was more valuable than an additional guard. Consider me somewhat skeptical given the difficulty of playing Anderson in the latter rounds of the playoffs because of his poor perimeter defense.
That noted, trading for Paul does have the advantage of allowing the Rockets to remain over the cap and maintain their exceptions. The players originally reported in this deal don't allow Houston to match salary, but adding in non-guaranteed contracts -- including DeAndre Liggins, whom the Rockets acquired from the Dallas Mavericks in a separate deal Wednesday morning -- should allow them to get there.
From Paul's standpoint, the decision-making is much more complex. He's forfeiting about $10 million this season for the ability to sign a five-year max with the Rockets next summer instead of the four-year max they would have been limited to offering him as a free agent.
To achieve parity with a five-year max signed with Houston next summer, Paul would have had to average about $40 million in 2021-22 and 2022-23, when he'll be 37 and 38. So he'll very likely come out ahead, assuming the Rockets are willing to fully max him after this season and he wants to stay.
Of course, the possibility of committing a combined $90 million to Paul in his age-37 and age-38 seasons -- as well as the chance he'll simply walk away next summer -- is a reason Houston would have been better off signing him outright rather than making this trade, unless Paul demanded this option.
All right, so with cap math out of the way, let's talk about the basketball team the Rockets have created. Earlier this week, I projected them for about 55 wins using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) projections based on the assumption they would acquire Paul and trade Anderson and Beverley. Keeping Anderson helps that projection slightly, to 56 wins:
So did Houston really add Paul to win one more game than last season's 55? No, probably not. And given that I currently have nearly a fifth of the Rockets' total minutes assigned to replacement-level contributors who would fill out the roster, there's plenty of room for improvement.
Assuming Houston can stay over the cap, the team would have its $8.2 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception available -- more than nearly any other contender can offer a free agent -- plus the $3.3 million biannual exception, as well as minimum contracts. That's far more than the Golden State Warriors used to land starting center Zaza Pachulia (they signed him for the smaller room midlevel exception) and key contributors JaVale McGee and David West (signed for the minimum).
Given the potential for adding talent, I'd expect Houston's projection to land somewhere north of 60 wins, which would probably be second in the league behind the Warriors.
What about the fit? Certainly, it's going to be an adjustment for Paul and James Harden. Last season, both players ranked in the league's top seven in time of possession, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. Harden's total (8.9 minutes per game) ranked second behind John Wall.
Combined, Paul and Harden held the ball for about 16 minutes per game, far higher than any two teammates. Just three pairs of teammates who played more than 55 games together had a combined time of possession greater than 11 minutes per game: Kyrie Irving and LeBron James (12.5), Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum (12.4) and Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan (11.5).
Can Harden and Paul work together? Of course they can. Both are good catch-and-shoot options, making them dangerous off the ball, and coach Mike D'Antoni can incorporate ways to utilize both players simultaneously in the pick-and-roll much as those other high-possession duos do. And having two of the league's best point guards will allow the Rockets to get Harden more rest than he got last season (when his 2,947 minutes ranked third in the NBA) while keeping Paul fresh.
I'm more dubious that Harden and Paul will be happy playing together, particularly Paul. While he's certainly a willing passer, Paul has tended to prefer to control every decision for his team at both ends of the court. That's simply won't be possible playing alongside Harden. So despite their friendship and desire to play together, it will be fascinating to see how this works.
LA Clippers: A
This is one of the worst days in the history of a franchise with plenty of them -- but we have to take that out of the grading process.
If Paul was already leaving, this was an excellent return for the Clippers. It allows them to compete next season -- particularly if they can re-sign Blake Griffin, though that now seems unlikely -- without sacrificing the ability to rebuild soon.
Both Beverley and Williams have remarkably friendly contracts for veteran guards. Williams is in the final season of his deal (he'll make $7 million) and would probably fetch a solid second-round pick if the Clippers decided he's redundant with existing score-first sixth man Jamal Crawford. Beverley is guaranteed $5.5 million this season, but his $5 million 2018-19 salary is non-guaranteed. He's worth far more than that as a starting point guard, whether with the Clippers or elsewhere.
The 2018 first-round pick the Clippers add in this deal is unlikely to have much value because the Rockets figure to be one of the league's top two or three teams. (And kudos to Rockets GM Daryl Morey for negotiating top-three protection on the pick in spite of that. You can never be too careful.)
Dekker is a useful young player who contributed off the bench in what was effectively his rookie season after missing most of his first year in the NBA due to injuries. He still has two years left on his rookie contract -- the latter a team option that must be picked up by Oct. 31 -- at a combined $4.5 million. Frankly, he's the kind of young role player on the perimeter the Clippers desperately needed when they had Paul on the roster, but Dekker is still a valuable addition to the roster now.
Harrell is also more than a throw-in. A high-percentage finisher in Houston's spread pick-and-roll, Harrell is a bargain at the veteran's minimum in the final season of his contract and will be a restricted free agent next summer.
Add it up, and the Clippers haven't added any guaranteed salary beyond this coming season. Even if they keep Beverley and pick up Dekker's team option, as they should, they could clear more than $70 million in cap space next summer if DeAndre Jordan and Austin Rivers opt out of their contracts.
Now, unless Griffin stays, it's unclear who would actually want to come to the Clippers in free agency, given how little else they'd have on the roster. But if Paul was departing anyway, that was going to be a problem no matter what. This trade moves the Clippers somewhat closer to having the ability to rebuild without the best player in franchise history.