Could Paul George help put the Cleveland Cavaliers back on even terms with the Golden State Warriors?
As the Indiana Pacers reportedly have engaged teams in trade discussions about George, who can become a free agent in July 2018 and has reportedly told the Pacers he plans to leave for the Los Angeles Lakers, the Cavaliers have emerged as a potential partner.
George's skill set would make him an ideal matchup against the Warriors. But is that worth the risk of trading for a player who could walk away in 12 months?
How George would fit in Cleveland
Cleveland's offer for George has centered on All-Star power forward Kevin Love. While the Pacers don't seem to be interested in Love, who only has one additional year on his contract and relatively old for a team that might be rebuilding, they might be able to recruit a third team willing to part with picks and young players for Love. ESPN's Marc Stein and Chris Haynes reported Sunday the Denver Nuggets were involved in such discussions leading up to the draft.
A larger trade might also net the Cavaliers other players, like Denver power forward Kenneth Faried, but for now let's imagine from Cleveland's standpoint the trade is simply Love for George straight up.
In the regular season, that shift would make things more challenging for Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue. Getting his five best players on the court would mean starting either George or James at power forward, a position they've bristled at playing full-time in the past. (As I've joked before, maybe Lue could tell both guys the other one's playing power forward and hope they don't talk to each other about it.)
Beyond that, it's unclear how much of an upgrade George would really be during the regular season. Because George had a relatively poor first half by his standards, Love rated as the better player by ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) last season. George's track record suggests improvement is likely, but 2017-18 RPM projections still give Love the slight edge.
However, Cleveland wouldn't be acquiring George for the regular season, or even in all likelihood the Eastern Conference playoffs, having gone 12-1 en route to the NBA Finals this year. The Cavaliers' primary concern should be a potential fourth consecutive meeting with Golden State in the Finals, and it's clear George would be more useful there than Love.
That starts with the redistribution of talent. Because of the effectiveness of the Warriors' small lineups, Lue was able to play Love and Thompson as many combined minutes as they average during the regular season (61) only once in five Finals games:
In a series against Golden State, it's reasonable to expect George to average somewhere in the neighborhood of the 40.3 minutes Irving played in this year's Finals. Meanwhile, as the lone traditional big man in Cleveland's starting five, Thompson could probably play at least 30 minutes per game, giving the Cavaliers about 12 more combined minutes from their starters than they got in this year's Finals. Those are fewer minutes Cleveland's weak perimeter reserves have to be on the court.
Despite Love's strong rating, RPM projections for a potential Cavaliers' rotation in the Finals improve by 1.2 points per 100 possessions replacing him with George strictly by extending the starters' minutes and minimizing contributions by reserves.
Adding George would also mean much more favorable defensive matchups. He could serve as a primary defender against the Warriors' Kevin Durant, allowing LeBron James to defend Draymond Green when Golden State has a center on the court and switch on to the less threatening fifth member of the Warriors' small lineups (typically Andre Iguodala) to conserve energy or become an active help defender.
A reasonable guess is that Cleveland would be between 2-3 points per 100 possessions stronger against Golden State with George in place of Love. That's not enough to even the series, in all likelihood -- the Warriors were rated about six points per game better on a neutral court by the point spread for Game 5 -- but it certainly improves the Cavaliers' chances.
If oddsmakers are accurate about the difference between the two teams, a two-point gain would push Cleveland's chances of winning the series from around 11 percent to more than 19 percent. A three-point gain gives the Cavaliers about a one-in-four shot (25 percent).
Is this Cleveland's last best chance?
The risk for the Cavaliers is obvious. George could walk away after the 2018-19 season, a year before Love has the ability to become an unrestricted free agent. Cleveland would have little flexibility to replace George, and his departure would likely spell the end of the team's championship aspirations.
The big question the Cavaliers must answer, then, is how long they can expect to control the Eastern Conference and have a chance to knock off Golden State with their current core. And that will depend almost entirely on how James, who will turn 33 in December, ages.
So far, James has been able to withstand the effects of aging, particularly during the postseason. His plus-11.5 playoff score in Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus rating was the third-best of his career, trailing 2009 (an unthinkable plus-18.2) and 2016 (plus-13.1). It's possible the normal rules simply don't apply to James, who has shouldered a historic workload with few ill effects. Still, as Charles Barkley would note, Father Time is undefeated and eventually aging will come for James too.
Then there's the matter of James' own contract. He can opt for free agency next summer, and if the Warriors remain light years ahead, James might look for another team that gives him a better chance of competing. His status adds some urgency to Cleveland's decision.
Ultimately, if Indiana was willing to deal George for Love, I'd recommend the Cavaliers make that move. While that might not be enough to push Cleveland over the top, James' potential free agency means championship contention isn't a guarantee in 2018-19 even if the Cavaliers hang on to Love.
James' age also makes this the team's best shot to beat Golden State again. The ancillary benefits of slightly cutting their luxury-tax bill next season (when George will make about $3 million less than Love) and preventing George from getting dealt to another East contender (most likely the Boston Celtics) only strengthen the argument. Love for George would be a deal worth making.