As free agency approaches, what will the Warriors do about Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston? How many titles will this group win?
Our 5-on-5 crew debates and predicts Golden State's future.
1. Which do you expect to happen with Kevin Durant's potential free agency?
A. He will stay and take a shorter, lesser deal to allow the team to stay intact.
B. He will stay but won't take a shorter, lesser deal.
C. He will leave.
D. He won't opt to become a free agent.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: A. Durant understands the importance of taking the smaller amount the Warriors can offer him using non-Bird rights (a maximum of $31.8 million) while staying over the cap, which would allow them to keep the rights to re-sign Iguodala and Livingston for any amount. Based on reporting by ESPN's Chris Haynes and Ramona Shelburne, I expect him to take that deal for another one-plus-one contract with the ability to get his max in 2018-19.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: A. It behooves Durant to take a short deal in the form of a one-plus-one (similar to what LeBron James did when he re-signed in Cleveland) in order to take advantage of early Bird rights and the higher salary he'll be able to command in the future. And Durant has reportedly already indicated he'll leave money on the table, which is the prudent thing to do in order to retain the services of key role players.
Micah Adams, ESPN Stats & Information: A. In addition to everything that has come out about his desire to stay in the Bay Area for the foreseeable future, that move meshes perfectly with everything Durant has said since joining Golden State last summer. Everything he loves about the Warriors' unselfish play is predicated on having a roster talented enough to keep the ball from sticking. Now that he has had a taste of winning and a glimpse into how special this run in the Bay could be, I find it hard to believe Durant won't do everything in his power to maximize their potential for greatness.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: A, for these reasons: It already has been reported that he's willing to take less than the max; he already made the decision to take less money by leaving Oklahoma City and signing a short-term deal with Golden State; and he just won the NBA title and Finals MVP. It seems beyond doubt that he'd very much like this team to stay intact and would thus be willing to make certain sacrifices.
Chris Herring, FiveThirtyEight/ESPN.com: A. After Durant tasted what it's like to win a championship and saw just how much talent he's surrounded by, I imagine he would be open to a deal for a bit less than the max he's eligible for, as has been reported here. In any case, the most important thing here, and what seems most obvious, is that he won't choose Option C. And that fact is why the Warriors will almost certainly be title favorites for the next few seasons.
2. The Warriors _________ bring back Andre Iguodala.
A. Should and will
B. Should but won't
C. Shouldn't but will
D. Shouldn't and won't
Adams: A. In terms of culture, Golden State isn't far off from San Antonio -- and in this analogy, Iguodala is essentially Manu Ginobili. He means more to the Warriors than he would with any other team given his ability to come off the bench and blend seamlessly with any combination of teammates. It's Iguodala who led the team in overall plus-minus in each of their Finals wins (2015 and 2017). There's not another player they can reasonably get who would have anywhere near the two-way impact off the bench that Iguodala at his best provides.
Given that Iguodala is 33, I think a two-year deal with a team option for a third year makes sense, somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million annually. Could he get more somewhere else? Of course. But with Iguodala's off-the-court interests in Silicon Valley, it's in the best interests of both parties to get something done.
Herring: A. He left a situation in which he had a far bigger role than he has now, but this is the perfect situation for him at this point in his career. He has made more than $100 million during his time in the league, and while I won't attempt to speak for him, I get the impression that winning titles with this group matters more to him than making as much as he possibly can in a less competitive situation elsewhere.
Elhassan: A. Iguodala will get very lucrative offers this offseason, but I think he ultimately will leave money on the table elsewhere to come back to the team that truly gets what he's about as a player. Iguodala has complained in the past about previous stops where his unique skill set wasn't appreciated, and while he's one of the most business-savvy players in the league, I would wager that happiness and fit would rank higher on his priority list.
Pelton: A. Though he's 33, Iguodala remains a crucial piece for Golden State, which plays its best basketball with him in the lineup (instead of the team's traditional centers). If Durant comes back, the Warriors can pay Iguodala whatever they want, and while there are luxury-tax concerns, I don't expect this to be where the team gets cheap. Meanwhile, Iguodala has been dropping cryptic hints about July, suggesting to me he's planning to return rather than seek out one last big deal elsewhere.
Engelmann: A. Can I call the 2015 Finals MVP "underrated"? Iguodala is a very important piece of the Warriors' puzzle. Two pieces of evidence: He led all Finals players in raw plus-minus, and for the season ranked 26th in the NBA in real plus-minus, ahead of All-Star Klay Thompson.
There's no question they should bring him back, though if I were the GM of a contending team with cap space, I'd probably try to mess with the Warriors and throw a two-year max offer at him -- yes, he's worth it.
3. The Warriors _________ bring back Shaun Livingston.
A. Should and will
B. Should but won't
C. Shouldn't but will
D. Shouldn't and won't
Pelton: A. I could make a case for any of the four options. Livingston's box-score production dropped dramatically last season, and it's possible he'll no longer be a rotation player by the end of a long-term contract. Nonetheless, his defensive versatility is important to Golden State's second unit, and unless another team gets crazy with an offer, I expect he'll be back.
Engelmann: A or C. I think they bring him back, but whether they "should" is very dependent on the price. RPM rates Livingston as only the 58th-best point guard in the league, but I think he actually fits the Warriors relatively well: His biggest flaw, not being able to shoot the 3-pointer, is covered up by the fact that almost everyone else on the roster can. Plus the 6-foot-7 guard can defend multiple positions with his size. Bringing him back on a deal that's similar to the one he has now, $5.8 million per season, makes sense.
Herring: B. I get that Livingston might want to stay, and if Durant takes less than he could, perhaps Livingston does end up remaining in a Warriors uniform. But the calculus for Livingston, whose career was derailed early on by a horrific leg injury, might be different given that he has made about $40 million over his 12-year career. If a team offers significant money for the next few seasons, and perhaps a starting role, it would seem to be tough to turn that down.
Elhassan: B. Like Iguodala, Livingston has been a major part of the Warriors' success over the past three years, and they should do everything within their power to bring him back. Unlike Iguodala, Livingston never signed a big-money deal because of the awful knee injury that derailed much of the early part of his career. This next contract he signs might pay more than he has made combined in the first 12 years of his career, and there's a big chance that offer comes from somewhere other than Golden State.
Adams: D. Livingston is the most logical casualty even though he just played very well in the Finals, where he shot 53 percent, played respectable defense and turned it over just once in 75 minutes. He's the perfect stabilizing force off the bench.
But at some point the Warriors have to start developing young talent, such as Patrick McCaw, who has similar size and talent. Livingston probably has enough left in the tank to secure a bigger deal elsewhere, and unlike Iguodala, who made more in the past three years than Livingston has in his career, he might not feel he has the flexibility to turn down money.
4. Which do you expect?
A. The Warriors will pay whatever it takes to keep its core four players together.
B. The Warriors will make a significant move in the next three to four years to cut costs.
Elhassan: A. Superteams come at a super cost, and I don't think the failures of the past are lost on the Warriors. In other words, a franchise that for much of the '90s and '00s rivaled the Clippers for most inept and is not far removed from celebrating simply making the playoffs won't take this newfound success lightly, especially considering they have one of the strongest revenue bases in the league. With a new profit-maximizing arena on its way, the Warriors can afford to pay premium dollars for premium product.
Pelton: A favored over B. If you're going to brag about being light-years ahead of the competition, as co-owner Joe Lacob did last year, you had better be prepared to pay the cost to remain that way. I wouldn't be stunned if Golden State eventually moved one of the core four, but I would be surprised if it happened primarily for financial reasons.
Herring: B. At a certain point, if the team continues to win championships, we should expect ownership to see whether they can accomplish the same thing while trimming down the expenses some. That might potentially mean moving Thompson before his contract expires and getting picks and rotation players to fill his spot before he's eligible for another raise. That said, we're still a ways off from that being on the table. The scenario becomes a much more interesting question if the Warriors become a true dynasty.
Engelmann: I'd lean toward A, but I also think some of their players will take smaller deals to make things more bearable for the Warriors' front office and owner. For instance, if players take $3 million to $5 million less per year, the Warriors not only save in salary but also a multiple of that amount in taxes.
Adams: I'll take Option C. Even if they are willing to cut the checks, it's not entirely in their hands. In 2019, Thompson becomes an unrestricted free agent. Let's assume both Curry and Durant are locked up beyond that, with Draymond Green still there. Being second fiddle while winning is something many Hall of Famers have happily accepted. But being the third option? Throughout the entirety of a player's prime?
At what point does the thought of "what if" begin to creep in? It's 100 percent pure speculation, and it might be incredibly hard to walk away, but I could see a scenario in which a 29-year-old Thompson decides to try his hand at leading a team elsewhere.
5. How many NBA Finals appearances and NBA titles do you expect for the Warriors in next five years?
Elhassan: Four appearances and three titles, and I'm coming conservative with that estimate by allowing for an untimely injury or two. It's not just the collection of elite talent or the relative youth of the roster, but also a system that emphasizes the whole being greater than the sum of the parts. Only San Antonio comes close to bringing out the most from its roster, and with every passing day, Golden State's players become more comfortable with the playbook and one another.
Adams: I'd set the over-under on appearances at 4.5 and titles at 3.5. I think the next two are pretty much a lock. In the aforementioned hypothetical scenario plays out in which Thompson decides to bolt, they'd still have two of the top five players in the NBA and a third All-NBA talent. Golden State is a destination for vets looking to take steep cuts for a crack at a title, so I'd imagine it will never have trouble finding above-replacement-level talent at prices nobody else can get. There is no end in sight.
Herring: Four appearances and three titles. Between the tough decisions they'll likely have to make to cut payroll and avoid the harshest luxury tax and the fact that the two superstars on the roster have been plagued with significant injuries in the past, it isn't hard to imagine a scenario in which they come up short once or twice as they adjust to being down a star or two.
Engelmann: I'd guess three Finals appearances and two titles. Yes, that might seem low given that they've just made three Finals in a row, but I think it'd be foolish to expect the same level of dominance three or four years down the road. Also, the Spurs, who would have taken Game 1 in Oakland in the West finals if not for the very unfortunate injury to Kawhi Leonard, are always a force to be reckoned with.
Pelton: I'd go with an expectation of four Finals appearances and three championships. While it might seem now like Golden State is poised to dominate the league for many years, age and cost have a way of catching up with teams sooner than we expect. Even if the Warriors keep their star-studded core intact, tax concerns and a lack of flexibility might eventually take a toll on their depth.