Should the Celtics pursue Jimmy Butler, Paul George or Gordon Hayward more in the offseason? Will they trade their No. 1 overall pick?
Our 5-on-5 crew debates and predicts Boston's offseason.
1. Fact or Fiction: Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley will be the starting backcourt two seasons from now.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Fiction, although this is just an educated guess. When combining the uncertainty of future free agency (not only whether or not both those players decide to stay in Boston but also whether or not it is financially prudent for the Celtics to commit at big numbers) with the very real possibility that they will either draft a cornerstone guard this year with the Brooklyn pick or use it to acquire a marquee talent via trade, it is easy to see that the odds are probably against keeping the pair together, at least in a starting capacity.
Micah Adams, ESPN Stats & Info: That depends on what happens during draft night. If they keep the pick and select Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball, either one should be starting by 2018-19. Trade the pick for a star like Jimmy Butler or Paul George and it becomes much more likely that Thomas and Bradley are still starting in the same backcourt. I think they're keeping the pick, so I'll say fiction for now.
Chris Forsberg, ESPN.com: Fiction. It's hard to envision a scenario in which the Celtics can afford to pay both Thomas and Bradley the contracts they'll be seeking next summer. After the ping pong balls cooperated and delivered Boston the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery, it's likely the Celtics will draft the player (Markelle Fultz) that will start alongside Thomas in 2019.
Consider, too, that Marcus Smart will likely be on the free agent market (albeit restricted) in the summer of 2018. The Celtics simply cannot keep all their current guard talent and Bradley -- despite his relative youth and obvious two-way talents -- would seem the most likely candidate to be moved before February 2018 in order to recoup value.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Fiction. I have a hunch the Celtics will let Thomas walk once his contract is up after next season. Why? The Celtics give comparatively large weight to plus-minus numbers, in which Thomas is underwhelming because he may be the NBA's worst defender. His scoring numbers will cause some other teams to offer the max. I don't think the Celtics will.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Fiction. Given the high salaries they're due to command (Thomas a likely candidate for a max deal starting in the range of $31 million based on current cap estimates, Bradley not far behind) and likely No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz as a younger alternative, I'd be a little surprised if Thomas and Bradley are still the starters at the beginning of the 2018-19 season.
2. Most desirable move for Boston?
A. Trade picks and players for Jimmy Butler
B. Trade picks and players for Paul George
C. Use cap space, sign Gordon Hayward
D. None of the above
Adams: I'd do two of them -- either A or B then C, but only if given assurances that Butler or George would sign a long-term deal. Obviously, they are not in control of Hayward's decision nor can they force Butler or George to agree to lock in.
There's no question that both Fultz and Ball are enticing prospects but I don't think either is necessarily a lock to be a franchise player beyond what Butler and George are right now. Though there's certainly no guarantee, you can argue both hold more value now than the rookies ever will as players. If you have a chance to turn an unknown poker chip into a proven All-NBA piece, you do it.
Isaiah Thomas' star turn has almost muddied the waters for Boston as it now has the difficult choice of needing to potentially offer $200 million to keep a 5-foot-9 point guard who can't play defense. Adding two more legitimate pieces in their primes now makes it much easier to potentially part ways with Thomas next summer after one more season to figure out how exactly all the pieces fit together.
It also accelerates the championship window, which given what's happening in Milwaukee and Philadelphia might be a good thing. There's no guarantee that the Celtics will be the class of the Eastern Conference if they opt to simply wait out LeBron's stranglehold.
Forsberg: C. The Celtics couldn't have done more to make themselves an attractive destination to free agents this season, having built an intriguing young team that made it to the Eastern Conference finals and showed it could be competitive even when Thomas was lost. They have one of the most highly regarded coaches in the league, who just happened to previously coach maybe the most intriguing free agent on the market in Gordon Hayward. Boston's chances of challenging the Cavaliers next season spike if they add Fultz, Hayward and a healthy Isaiah Thomas to the team that bowed Thursday night. If they strike out on Hayward or a top free agent, they should simply stick with the draft and develop route rather than overpay for Butler or George.
Elhassan: A. There is no guarantee that holding onto picks on draft night can be augmented by a big free-agent signing. While the net gain of keeping the pick and signing Hayward outweighs that of trading for Butler, there's no actual guarantee that Hayward will sign. Factoring in the added benefit of having Butler at a depressed rate ($18.7 million and $19.8 million for the next two seasons), trading for him represents the bird-in-hand approach teams tend to adopt when faced with an opening championship window. Ideally, Boston would be able to retain the 2017 pick and craft a deal centered around the 2018 Nets pick.
Pelton: C. Because Bradley, Smart and Thomas are all due to hit free agency next summer and command sizeable raises, the Celtics' cap space will soon disappear for good. So using that to add an All-Star while retaining their draft picks is pretty clearly the most desirable option to me -- particularly because it doesn't preclude trading for Butler or George as well, though the cap mechanics get a bit trickier.
Engelmann: D. Not only did Jae Crowder have a better real plus-minus (RPM) than Hayward and George, he's also vastly underpaid. And while Butler (RPM: 6.6) is probably more impactful than Crowder (RPM: 4.0), the difference in salary -- Butler's $20 million vs. Crowder's $8 million per season -- makes a blockbuster deal not worth it for Boston.
3. Boston's chances at adding a championship banner are best if they ...
A. Trade the 2017 Nets pick
B. Trade the 2018 Nets pick
C. Trade both
D. Trade neither
Pelton: D. Boston's best window for winning a championship won't come until after the Warriors have passed their peak, which will be after the prime years for any player they could realistically acquire by trading the picks. That's not necessarily to say the Celtics shouldn't do it -- there's value in advancing deeper in the postseason, and a championship is hardly a sure thing down the road -- but their best shot is still to come, as I see it.
Engelmann: If the goal is to add one championship, then trading both picks probably isn't a terrible idea, but it would probably hurt the franchise long-term. I'd keep this year's pick, given that this year's draft is supposed to contain future franchise players. That should give the Celtics several shots at a championship ring over the long haul.
Forsberg: D. If you add Jimmy Butler or Paul George to this year's Celtics team, do they get past Cleveland or Golden State? Boston would be more competitive for certain, but I'm not sure that alone pushes this team over the top. While waiting for the Warriors super team to get bored or James to get old, the Celtics ought to remain patient, unless a legitimate franchise-altering player shakes free and then Danny Ainge can finally push all his chips in.
Elhassan: B. While it's probably not going to be No. 1 overall, that 2018 pick still figures to be highly favorable in what could be a weaker draft. Boston should be able to craft a deal for an All-NBA caliber performer built around that pick, saving the 2017 pick for the drafting of a building block player.
Adams: A, and if necessary, C. Again, there are never guarantees that draft picks will turn into franchise players. If the Celtics were able to land Hayward in free agency and add Butler/George (with the caveat they agree to re-sign), they immediately become the unquestioned second-best team in the East with more than a puncher's chance of taking out Cleveland.
Imagine if it had been LeBron James and not Kawhi Leonard who injured an ankle early in a playoff series and the Celtics weren't in a position to take advantage because they were content with building toward a 2020 timeline. They'd be kicking themselves for the missed opportunity. While you certainly can never build around the possibility of injuries or what happens with other teams, the Celtics have an opportunity right now to trade chips into become a legitimate contender.
4. Which of the following should be priorities?
A. Re-sign free agent Amir Johnson
B. Re-sign restricted free agent Kelly Olynyk
C. Re-sign free agent Jonas Jerebko
D. Re-sign free agent Gerald Green
E. Pick up Tyler Zeller's player option
F. Sign Marcus Smart to an extension (this offseason)
G. Sign another free agent not listed here
Forsberg: B, F. If the Celtics are fortunate to land a big fish like Hayward at the start of free agency then they can turn their attention to trying to lock up some of their younger pieces on reasonable contracts before having to spend to retain guys like Thomas in the summer of 2018. The Celtics can match any offer Olynyk receives in restricted free agency and will spend within reason to retain his floor-stretching talents. They should consider trying to lock up Smart to a reasonable number, as that could save them cash down the road.
Pelton: F, B, G, maybe A. Assuming the Celtics do use their cap space to sign a player to a multi-year deal, they won't sacrifice much flexibility to extend Smart's contract. Unless Boston signs a max free agent, re-signing Olynyk as a restricted free agent should be an easy call in favor. That would still leave the Celtics a little more than $20 million in cap space to add up to three players to fill out the roster. Johnson could certainly be part of that group depending on how the market plays out, and maybe Jerebko too, but he'd be lower in terms of priority.
Engelmann: A, B and G, in that order. Johnson ranked top 20 in RPM thanks to efficient shooting and good plus-minus numbers. Olynyk gives the Celtics another dimension thanks to his 3-point shooting. Jerebko, Green and Zeller can easily be replaced. The Celtics should be looking eventually to replace Smart, who has shot 36 percent from the field for both his career and this past season.
Elhassan: G, followed by F and everything else. The priority is to use the assets available to bring in an elite talent. Everything else is an afterthought that should wait its turn and allow the main objective to be realized. After that is accomplished, leveraging the uncertainty of the future against Smart's desire to achieve long-term security should be exploited, particularly since he is the youngest option listed.
Adams: B, F and E. Assuming they won't have to break the bank to do it, Olynyk is the type of physical yet floor-stretching big necessary in today's NBA. Smart is only 23 and though his shooting is a significant issue especially in the playoffs, his defensive versatility alone makes him worth a pretty penny -- especially if the Celtics were to make a move for Jimmy Butler. Imagine trying to score on the Celtics against the trio of Smart, Bradley and Butler. Zeller's player option for $8 million is reasonable enough to bring back and comes at a much cheaper cost than ponying up for Amir Johnson.
5. How many trips to the Eastern Conference finals will the Celtics make in the next five years?
Elhassan: Two, maybe three. The next two years should be the main window where Boston goes full throttle for a final four finish and beyond. After that I think age and the rise of other Eastern powers like Milwaukee start to become a factor.
Adams: I think the Celtics are good for at least two trips, regardless of whether they decide to keep or trade their picks. They got the No. 1 seed with their current roster and I can't see them getting worse anytime soon given the makeup of the roster and pending draft picks.
That said, the entire Eastern Conference is a moving target and nearly every potential contender over the next five years has significant question marks. Jabari Parker's injury clouds the future for Milwaukee, the 76ers remain a mystery given the health of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, Toronto could very well lose its franchise player this summer amidst a crossroads while Indiana and Chicago both field questions seemingly every day about its star players. About the only constant is Cleveland where LeBron James will be entering his 15th season and (we think!) can't play forever. Projecting the next five years in the East is essentially multi-variable calculus with all of the moving pieces.
Forsberg: If Boston lands a big-name free agent, we'll say three. Even if they don't, it might be fair to guess two. As Paul Pierce stressed to Isaiah Thomas this postseason, winning is hard. And if we assume the Cavs aren't going to give up their annual seat in the East finals any time soon -- LeBron will only be 37 by the end of that five-year window -- then just getting to the conference finals will be a grind. If Boston's young players continue to develop, there's no reason to think this team won't be in the mix moving forward. It's not hard to envision the Celtics as one of the East elite by the end of that window.
Engelmann: Two to four. As long as LeBron is playing in the East there aren't too many open spots. The Celtics, though, are by far the best challenger thanks to multiple shrewd trades they've made over the last few seasons. That said, I think whoever they pick in this year's draft will take some time to become an above-average NBA player.
Pelton: The line is probably 3.5. Boston is well positioned to be in the mix throughout that time frame. I'd lean slightly toward the over.