Should the Raptors give Kyle Lowry a long-term, $200 million contract? What trades do they need to make?
Our 5-on-5 crew debates and predicts Toronto's next moves.
1. The Raptors __________ be willing to offer Kyle Lowry a maximum, five-year, $209 million contract.
A. Should and will
B. Should but won't
C. Shouldn't but will
D. Shouldn't and won't
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: C. Market forces will determine that Toronto will pay whatever it takes to retain Lowry.
In many ways, the Raptors' situation is analogous to that of the Clippers. Like Chris Paul, Lowry has been a major part of the most successful era in franchise history. Like Paul, Lowry is part of a small crop of available free-agent point guards this summer. And as with Paul and the Clippers, the Raptors would not have the cap flexibility to replace Lowry with any reasonable talent at any position without making serious cutbacks in other areas.
But Lowry is not Chris Paul, and five years of Lowry at that number is too onerous a burden for my taste. It would essentially lock the Raptors in to this team, with very little flexibility and even less of a chance of winning a title, even if they were fortunate enough to win the East.
Chris Herring, FiveThirtyEight/ESPN.com: C. There's a perfectly good argument to be made that Lowry deserves every dollar of the max contract that may be headed his way. He just posted career numbers following a 2015-16 season in which he'd pretty much done the same thing. His play is clearly trending in the right direction.
But what about five years from now, when he's 36 and earning north of $40 million a year? It's a bit like the situation Memphis had with Mike Conley last summer. Lowry is a very good floor general, and you'll probably end up paying him without overthinking it. But given the team's shortcomings and stagnation on offense, it'd be great if you commit less and retain him.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: A. Really, it's hard to see any other option. The Raptors are about to get expensive, and even if GM Masai Ujiri reaches the point that he wants to juggle the core, the only real option to swap out Lowry for a comparable talent would be to trade him. That he's already past 30 is worrisome, but Toronto has a window to win. It's a window that appears wholly dependent on unexpected problems for Cleveland, but it's a window.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I'm torn between A and C. I'm pretty sure they'll offer the max -- otherwise the Raptors would probably just slide back into irrelevancy, which no one in Toronto wants. Should they? Lowry is a top-10 player, according to real plus-minus (RPM), but he'd be 36 years old at the end of that gigantic contract.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: A. Yes, the Raptors went 15-7 without Lowry this season. When you account for their home-heavy schedule with him sidelined after the All-Star break, however, Toronto played at a level three wins worse over a full season in his absence -- despite adding Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker to the mix.
Realistically, I'd expect losing Lowry to cost the Raptors at least five games, which would take them out of any serious contention. I'm willing to accept overpaying Lowry on the back end of the contract to stay in the mix.
2. What should Toronto do about free-agent forwards Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson and PJ Tucker?
Doolittle: Keep 'em. The Raptors' season-ending roster was their deepest and most balanced group yet. You'd like to see them get the chance to build synergy through an offseason and training camp together. Toronto's all-in window is dictated by DeMar DeRozan's contract, which has three more years and a player option to go. To downgrade what's around him doesn't make sense at this point.
Herring: They should re-sign Ibaka, given that they gave up Terrence Ross and a first-round pick to get him. Tucker is a very good fit with this team. It makes sense to bring him back because they have his Bird rights and are going to exceed the cap anyway.
They can probably do without bringing back Patterson, given Ibaka's presence and the fact that Tucker can play up a position when necessary.
Elhassan: Sixteen years ago, in the first era of Raptors fortune, Toronto followed up a spirited playoff run with a summer that ultimately hastened its demise. In order to get Vince Carter to sign a rookie extension, the Raptors tried to prove that they were "serious about winning" by giving big contracts to their vet free agents (Antonio Davis, Alvin Williams and Jerome Williams), doling out almost $150 million in the process. But that team peaked in 2001, and Carter was traded three years later.
All that is to say that while all three players were strong pickups and can contribute to on-the-court success, I would hesitate before offering any of them long-term deals.
Pelton: The Raptors can't bring back all three without going deep in the luxury tax. Even Ibaka and one of the other two might be prohibitively expensive. So I think I'd monitor the market for all three players and determine the best value of the group.
That would mean looking to make deals south of $20 million a year for Ibaka, $12 million a year for Patterson and the non-taxpayer midlevel exception ($8.2 million) for Tucker.
Engelmann: I'd definitely try to re-sign Patterson, who ranked top-10 in regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM), RPM's older brother.
Ibaka, I feel, is somewhat overrated (RPM rating of just 0.6). His elite shot-blocking days are long over, and most everything else he brings to the table is about average. He'll probably demand more money than he's worth, so I'd let him walk.
Tucker should be re-signed, if he can be had for less than $8 million per year.
3. Toronto GM Masai Ujiri is known for big trades. What trade would you like to see him make?
Pelton: Trading backup point guard Cory Joseph would be the easiest way to cut Toronto's tax bill. As important as Joseph is to the Raptors' bench units, they have depth at the position with Delon Wright -- who's earned regular minutes -- and Fred VanVleet. So if Toronto could get a late first-round pick for Joseph at the draft from a team with cap space (the Utah Jazz, who have their own No. 24 pick and Golden State's No. 30 pick, would be an interesting option), I'd make that deal.
Engelmann: Guess which Raptors player had a negative net rating -- meaning they played better without than with him -- in each of the past three seasons? And who has the largest contract on the Raptors, at around $28 million per season? They're the same person: DeMar DeRozan. Toronto fans would probably hate the idea of trading him, but it'd do the Raptors a lot of good in the long term, given the cap space they'd gain.
Herring: I'd like to see them make a move along the margins -- maybe add a versatile vet who moves the ball well, in the same vein as what Utah did last offseason when trading for Boris Diaw. It's clear that the Raptors' two stars on the perimeter are a tough cover for lower-seeded foes, but better teams will force the ball out of their hands and make someone else create offense for Toronto. Finding someone to do that has to be paramount.
Doolittle: I would vote for the status quo, which of course depends on retaining the free agents. Again, the full group hasn't had a prolonged chance to grow together. Plus, Ujiri has a number of developing players who offer the roster a good dose of upside ---Jakob Poeltl, Delon Wright, Bruno Caboclo and Pascal Siakam. And, yes, this all includes keeping Jonas Valanciunas, though you can see why he might be shopped.
That said, because I've never been sold on DeRozan as a cornerstone player, one possible way to shake things up would be to trade him to a team that sees him that way. For instance, would this roster look better if it were built around Jimmy Butler rather than DeRozan? That's the kind of thing worth looking into.
Elhassan: I don't know if there are any more trades to be made for this team without a serious shakeup. Adding an athletic 3-and-D wing might help, but really it comes down to their inability to get past a far greater opponent in LeBron James.
4. The Raptors are ...
A. On the rise
B. On the decline
C. _________
Elhassan: C. Treading water. This is not a bad team! It's just hopelessly outmatched against the Cavaliers, and I'm not sure there's a ton of upside to this roster. Having said that, I think the Raptors can sustain 50-plus wins a year as currently constructed.
Pelton: B. On the decline. Of course, it feels like I say this every year, and the Raptors jumped from 49 wins in 2014-15 to 56 in 2015-16. They started off near that pace again in 2016-17 before slipping, and Lowry's absence might have prevented them from taking more advantage of their schedule after the break. Still, Lowry's age (31) has to catch up with him at some point, and free agency figures to weaken Toronto's roster.
Herring: C. Stagnant. They have a nice roster, and it's a better one than what they had last season, or even at the beginning of this one. But they're still a clear step or step and a half beneath LeBron James and the Cavs, and it's hard to see how they truly close the gap in a meaningful way any time soon.
Doolittle: C. Right there. I could see Toronto continuing to improve from within just based on continuity and the development of young players. But this is a well-built team. Can this group at its absolute peak beat a healthy James and the Cavs? Maybe not, but that's no reason to tear it down.
Engelmann: C. Likely to stay where they are, but that's obviously very dependent on where their free agents, most importantly Lowry and Patterson, end up. If either of them leaves, another 50-win season becomes extremely unlikely.
5. The Raptors have just posted their first two 50-win seasons ever. How many seasons will they add to the streak?
Elhassan: At least two. Their two best players are in their primes (Lowry is 31, and DeRozan is 27), but beyond the next two years, I wonder about how Lowry (and the supporting cast) will continue to hold up.
Herring: One. Their record should benefit from having a full season of Ibaka, assuming they keep him. Same with Lowry, who logged only 60 games this season.
But between Milwaukee and Washington, which are both young and figure to improve on the strength of their young stars, it's not hard to imagine the Raptors getting squeezed out of the East's upper echelon unless they find the right fix.
Doolittle: Two. Playoff woes aside, this team has staying power. If the free agents are retained and Toronto gets decent injury luck the next couple of years, it should add to its victory total and challenge for the East's top seed.
Engelmann: One. I think they have a better than 50 percent chance to do it again next season, but I'm assuming the streak stops there. After the trade of Terrence Ross and a first-round pick for Ibaka, essentially worsening future outlook for the sake of short-term "success" -- which turned out to be an early second-round exit -- my opinion of Ujiri took a bit of a hit.
Pelton: Assuming Lowry re-signs, the Raptors' over/under will probably be around 50 wins. I'd lean slightly toward the under. By 2018-19, when Lowry would turn 33 during the season, a 50-win season seems distinctly unlikely. So most likely none with a strong chance of one additional 50-win season.