If Gordon Hayward hits free agency, will he end up back with the Jazz? What would get the team closer to contention?
Our 5-on-5 crew debate and predict Utah's next moves.
1. Do you expect Gordon Hayward to return?
Tim MacMahon, ESPN.com: Probably, but I wouldn't bet my mortgage payment on it. The Jazz have two major advantages: They can offer Hayward more money over more years than any other team, and they can offer the opportunity to be the clear-cut, go-to guy for a franchise with a chance to be a contender, which wouldn't be the case with, say, the Boston Celtics, where the offense runs through Isaiah Thomas.
Then again, as willingly as Hayward gives Joe Johnson the ball and gets out of the way with playoff games on the line, you wonder whether being The Man matters to him.
For all the discussion about his relationship with former Butler coach Brad Stevens, it's worth noting that he has been coached longer by Quin Snyder, who played a major role in Hayward's development into an All-Star.
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: If he makes the All-NBA team, yes, because he'd be eligible for the Designated Player Exception (DPE) after opting into the final year of his current deal. Two franchises with championship pedigree and rock-solid cultures in Boston and Miami will recruit him hard, but the decisive edge in legal tender would strongly favor Utah. Should he not receive postseason honors, his return becomes more precarious for the Jazz.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: Ultimately, I think Hayward stays. From Utah's perspective, I don't think there is any question that you max him out, which in itself gives the Jazz a $50 million edge in total compensation (and way more than that in the unlikely event that Hayward lands on an All-NBA team and becomes eligible for the DPE).
There are lots of reasons Boston would be attractive to Hayward if he wanted a change. But what is his impetus for that move? In Utah, he is on an up-and-coming team with co-franchise player Rudy Gobert locked down, and he has an excellent coach whom he respects. If it ain't broke, why fix it, especially when you're getting an extra $50 million for your loyalty?
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I'm sure he's going to opt out of his player option because he's underpaid by NBA standards. No doubt other teams will throw the max at him, but Hayward has never seemed unhappy with the Jazz, who can offer more money, which they are very likely to do. I think he stays.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Maybe. It's hard to read what Hayward might do, particularly given that the Jazz's playoff run showed that they could win in the postseason but also suggested they're far from competing with the Warriors. Given that Hayward has never signed a non-rookie contract with Utah (the Jazz matched an offer sheet from Charlotte to retain him in 2014) and he'll have plenty of max suitors, I wouldn't be surprised by Hayward staying or leaving.
2. Do you expect George Hill to return?
Arnovitz: Yes. This is a risky guess, considering that Hill and the Jazz failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension this summer. If Hayward re-signs, another deal for Hill would shoot the Jazz well over the cap. But Hill assembled arguably his best season running point in Snyder's system.
Doolittle: Yes. This seems like an ideal spot for Hill, and he's smart enough to recognize that. It's his last shot at a big-money deal, so if I'm Utah, I'll give him three years at whatever it takes to keep him. It might cost Derrick Favors, Alec Burks and/or Rodney Hood down the line, but I'm OK with that.
MacMahon: The Jazz certainly hope so, but this might come down to the price tag. Hill's camp expects him to command a max contract or close to it. That would be really difficult for a small-market team to cough up for a 31-year-old point guard who has never been an All-Star, didn't have a double-digit assist game all season and has significant durability concerns.
How much influence would Hill's return have in the decision of (fellow Indiana native) Hayward? That could be a determining factor for the Jazz front office. A potential Plan B who would be much more affordable: Deron Williams, who sources say would love the chance to rewrite his final chapter in Utah.
Pelton: No. I think Hill is going to be coveted by teams who are looking for an upgrade at point guard and will desire to lock in what will almost certainly be his only big-money contract of his career, as he hits the market at age 31. Matching those offers might be tough for a Jazz team that has to keep its eye on long-term payroll.
Engelmann: Yes. Hill has the impact of a max player (real plus-minus: 3.4). The only issue here is that he's almost 31, and he isn't quite on a level where you want to be paying him max money in four years. Still, the Jazz might decide that now is their window and offer the max anyway.
3. Do you expect Derrick Favors to be traded?
Pelton: I would say yes. If Hayward and Hill both re-sign, the luxury tax will become an issue for the Jazz -- though they've willingly paid it in the past. Still, if Utah could get younger, cheaper talent in return, a Favors trade would be worth exploring. And if one or both leave, cap space will suddenly be at a premium as the Jazz look for replacements.
Engelmann: No. The Jazz don't have a ton of depth at the low-post positions -- Boris Diaw is now 35 and Trey Lyles is far below average, according to RPM -- and Favors' contract is fair. On the other hand, if one of the Jazz's two first-rounders looks like he can replace Favors, they should look into dealing him.
Doolittle: Yes, and sooner rather than later. Favors is an offensive liability at power forward, and with Gobert around, the Jazz can't shift him exclusively to center. Given the investments Utah needs to make elsewhere, it's hard to see there being money to keep Favors after next season anyway. He can be a starting center somewhere in the NBA, and the Jazz can get back a couple of useful pieces and some payroll breathing room.
Arnovitz: Yes. If you assume that the Jazz will extend big offers to both Hayward and Hill, something's gotta give. The most obvious something would be Favors and the final year on his deal. It would be a bit of a gamble for the Jazz because power forward heir apparent Trey Lyles isn't quite ready for prime time, but the Jazz need to shed budget somewhere, and he's the most logical candidate.
MacMahon: Probably not, simply because it's hard to see Utah getting value for Favors with such concern about his health. He has value to the Jazz, as much as a backup center as a power forward at this point. If Favors gets dealt, it'd be a salary dump. If I'm GM Dennis Lindsey, I'd much rather shed the salary of Alec Burks, who is owed $22.4 million over the next two years, even if that means parting with one of the Jazz's first-round picks.
4. What else do you advise and foresee for the Jazz this offseason?
Engelmann: The Jazz should be willing to go up to about $15 million to bring back restricted free agent Joe Ingles, one of the most improved players in the NBA. He shot 44 percent from 3-point range, spreads the floor and generally plays smart basketball. Jeff Withey should be re-signed, if he can be had for less than $5 million per season.
Arnovitz: The Jazz are a team that can beat you with big, long wings who can smother you on the perimeter and are comfortable working out of the pick-and-roll. To maintain the depth of that identity, they should offer a contract extension to Rodney Hood and see if they can lure Ingles back at a reasonable price.
Pelton: Ingles' future probably depends on Utah's other free agents. If both Hayward and Hill re-sign, paying heavily for Ingles might be tough to justify, despite his importance to the Jazz. If one or both leaves, Ingles' relatively low cap hold would help Utah clear cap space to find replacements without gutting the rest of the roster.
MacMahon: I'd try to get a deal with Joe Ingles finished quickly, starting the discussions with a four-year, $40 million offer. He's a critical role player for the Jazz who also happens to be good friends with Hayward, who has the same agent. I'd also keep Boris Diaw. His non-guaranteed $7.5 million salary is good value for a veteran who is a significant contributor on the floor and in the locker room. Contract talks with Hood and Dante Exum can wait until they become restricted free agents next summer.
Doolittle: Neither Exum nor Hood really had a strong enough season to earn an extension, so I'd like to see how things play out for them in 2017-18. With Exum, if all the dominoes fall into place, you hope he improves enough that Utah can pencil him in as Hill's long-term successor. But if there is doubt creeping in about him, packaging him with Favors could bring back impactful talent.
5. Fact or Fiction: The Jazz will be in the West finals within three years.
MacMahon: Fact, if Hayward stays. The arrow is still pointing up for Hayward and 24-year-old big man Rudy Gobert, who have both made significant strides each summer to develop into one of the league's top tandems. With that pair as the foundation, the Jazz can be a force in the West for years to come.
Arnovitz: Fact, but only if Hayward and Hill re-sign. Even with all the games missed to injury, the Jazz were the most ascendant team in the West this season -- and a young one at that. That trajectory should vault them to Memorial Day basketball. If either or both of their two big free agents depart, the rock slides down the hill quite a bit.
Doolittle: Fact. Everything is in place, and this is a well-run organization with solid people from the court and all the way up the line. Gobert and Hayward are both All-NBA capable, and if the right combination of shooters and defenders are found, Utah's core players have a 55- to 60-win season in them.
Engelmann: Fiction. The Jazz are certainly one of the up-and-coming teams in the NBA, but the Spurs, Warriors and Rockets aren't going anywhere, so there aren't exactly a lot of West finals spots to go around. Obviously, the Jazz's chances aren't 0 percent, but I'd put the over/under at fewer than one West finals appearance.
Pelton: Fiction. I'd bet against it at even odds. As long as the Warriors stay intact, the rest of the West might be playing for one spot in the conference finals. The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are ahead of the Jazz in line for that spot, with the LA Clippers also in the mix and younger teams coming up from behind.