Ever since re-signing with the Memphis Grizzlies last summer for $153 million over five years, point guard Mike Conley has dealt with the burden of getting the most lucrative contract in NBA history despite never having made an All-Star team, making him a target for critics. (This is less of a burden, certainly, when he cashes those paychecks.)
Conley's performance during the Grizzlies' first-round matchup with the San Antonio Spurs, including a new playoff career high of 35 points in Saturday's series-tying Game 4 victory, has reframed his performance.
"I don't think we're going to have the discussion about how much money he's worth anymore," Memphis coach David Fizdale said after the game. "I think that's moot. I don't want to hear about it, at least. The guy is a superstar."
With apologies to Fizdale, we're going to have the conversation again, but hopefully in a fairer manner.
It's clear that Conley does not deserve to be the highest-paid player in the league. It's equally clear that's an unfair standard to judge him because of the rapid escalation of the NBA salary cap, which will soon leave Conley's contract in the dust.
So the question is, has he been worth the money so far?
Revisiting 2016 free agency
One year in is too early to really evaluate how NBA teams spent the massive influx of cap space thanks to the league's new national TV deals kicking in, but probably not for the reason you're thinking. It's because most free agents are past their NBA prime, so the first year is typically the best of a contract in terms of value relative to salary.
Still, let's review how last summer's top free agents performed in 2016-17.
Among free agents, Conley ranked third in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric this season behind former MVPs LeBron James and Kevin Durant. He was fourth among the group in wins based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), behind the two clear superstars and Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal.
While Fizdale calling Conley a superstar is probably a bit strong, he certainly established himself as a legitimate star this season. Conley finished 20th in the league in WARP, ahead of 12 players who made the All-Star Game.
Through four games of the playoffs, Conley has been better yet. Entering Sunday's action, only San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard (1.4) had contributed more WARP to his team's cause than Conley (1.1).
How much was Conley's production worth?
So far we've established that Conley was one of last summer's most valuable free agents, though not quite as valuable as James and Durant. They represent a poor comparison because of the complexity of the NBA salary cap.
First, James actually is making far more (a league-high $31.0 million) than Conley ($26.5 million) this season. The reason Conley's contract is richer is he opted for the maximum possible five-year deal, while James preferred to sign a two-year deal with a player option for a third season. Had James signed a five-year deal at the start of free agency, Conley never would have been tagged with the league's largest contract.
Second, Durant and Conley have identical salaries this year because of the way the league maximum restricts earnings. In a truly open market, there's no doubt Durant would command far more than Conley.
To actually value Conley's production, then, we have to compare it to what all free agents were paid. Because players contribute value to their team by being better than a replacement-level player who makes the league's veteran minimum salary (a little less than $1 million), the appropriate measure is the cost above the minimum of each win above replacement.
Here's how that looks for last summer's free agents. It's clear from this that Conley represented one of last summer's better values in free agency.
Collectively, the NBA spent nearly a billion dollars above and beyond the veterans minimum on 2016-17 salaries for free agents last summer ($926 million, to be exact). That money bought 198 WARP, meaning each win cost about $4.7 million dollars. At that price, in an uncapped league Conley's production would have been worth nearly $60 million on the open market last summer. So it's safe to say he has earned his money and then some.
Conley's contract likely to look worse, but still worth risk
Now, this is not quite to say that Conley's contract will prove a great one for the Grizzlies. At 29, he fits the criteria of the kind of aging player who's likely to perform worse over the course of his contract. Of course, I said that last summer and Conley responded with the best season of his career. Still, at some point during the life of the contract, age is likely to take a toll on Conley's production.
Additionally, last summer probably will prove a high-water mark for the cost of wins in free agency. Though the salary cap will go up again this summer, teams will have less to spend because more of the old-style contracts signed before the cap rise will come off the books. Teams also will have to spend more on first-round picks and players making the minimum now that the new collective bargaining agreement has adjusted their salaries to match the cap.
Because fewer teams will have max-level cap space, or any cap space at all, expect wins to cost far less than the $4.7 million they did last summer. That means Conley's production will be less valuable through no fault of his own.
Nonetheless, given where Memphis would be without Conley -- certainly not tied 2-2 in this series, and possibly not even in the playoffs at all -- the Grizzlies' front office surely has no regrets about re-signing Conley, even to the largest contract in NBA history. He already has produced more value by my estimate than he'll be paid this year and next, so there's plenty of room for Conley to decline and still be a net positive over the course of his deal.