With Sunday's announcement that he has a torn meniscus in his left knee that will require season-ending surgery, New York Knicks point guard Derrick Rose has played his final game on the five-year, $94 million extension he signed with the Chicago Bulls the winter after being named MVP.
Five years and multiple knee injuries later, it's become clear that Rose will never get back to his All-Star form. So, what kind of market is there for Rose as he heads toward unrestricted free agency this summer? And if the Knicks decide to move on from Rose after one year in the Big Apple, what are their options?
What teams can expect from Rose
Rose's season in New York was superficially solid. He averaged 18.0 points per game, his highest mark since suffering a torn ACL during the 2012 playoffs, and shot 47.1 percent from the field after making just 41.2 percent of his shots his last two years in Chicago. And Rose's 17.0 PER was easily his best since the injury.
Much of Rose's improvement in shooting percentage can be traced to attempting just 60 3-pointers, down from 150 in 2015-16 and 271 in just 51 games in 2014-15. Since he was a sub-30 percent 3-point shooter, that was probably the right move.
However, Rose's reluctance to shoot the 3 limited his value in terms of floor spacing. Add in the general uptick in offense around the league, and Rose rated better by my wins above replacement metric in 2014-15 (2.1 WARP) than this season (1.0).
ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) takes an even dimmer view of Rose's performance because the Knicks were slightly better with him on the bench (minus-3.6 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats) than on the court (minus-3.9). So Rose's minus-2.4 RPM ranked 53rd among point guards this season.
Since Rose will turn 29 during training camp and is coming off yet another knee surgery, it's not realistic for teams to expect improvement. In fact, given the tendency for point guards who rely heavily on athleticism to age quickly, a multiyear deal will take Rose into the phase of his career where we would expect further decline.
The market for point guards
This summer could feature a fascinating point guard carousel, starting with the draft. The top two players on Chad Ford's big board, Washington's Markelle Fultz and UCLA's Lonzo Ball, are both point guards. Three other PGs are in the top 11 (Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox, Dennis Smith Jr. of North Carolina State and French prospect Frank Ntilinka), so several teams with a need at point guard will fill them through the draft.
Free agency will also be heavy on point guards, with up to nine starters hitting the market, all of them unrestricted. That group is headlined by perennial All-Stars Stephen Curry, Kyle Lowry and Chris Paul. The second tier of point guards has George Hill of the Utah Jazz, Jrue Holiday of the New Orleans Pelicans and Jeff Teague of the Indiana Pacers. All will surely be more coveted than Rose.
That leaves Rose in a tier of players that includes Sacramento Kings starter Darren Collison and Rajon Rondo of the Chicago Bulls (if he is waived because his 2017-18 salary is only partially guaranteed). Patty Mills, who has come off the bench for the San Antonio Spurs but might be a starter in a different situation, also belongs in this tier.
Including the rookies and Rose, that's 15 potential starting point guards available. When Ford and I looked at the market in January, we found just seven teams in need of a starter. Of course, that group will expand if one of the current starters changes teams, leaving them in need of a replacement. And it's realistic that a team could try to ease the pressure on one of the rookie point guards by signing a veteran like Rose to hold the starting job while the youngster develops.
Still, it's entirely possible that there are no starting jobs available for Rose if New York decides to move on. He could find himself in the position Rondo has been in the last couple of seasons, forced to settle for short-term contracts in less desirable situations. Like Rondo, Rose might find the market for his services cooler than he expects -- especially since Rose too comes with locker-room concerns, especially after missing a game earlier this season without contacting the Knicks.
Who's next in New York?
Less than a year after the Knicks sent a package built around starting center Robin Lopez to Chicago for Rose, re-signing him is no sure thing. The draft will be the first option for New York, which could enter the lottery as high as fourth in the order and move up from there.
If the Knicks go another direction in the draft, they'll be able to clear something in the neighborhood of $18 million in cap space if they renounce Rose's $32 million cap hold. That won't be nearly enough to make a max offer to one of the top free agents on the market, which would require shedding additional salary. And it might not be enough to match offers for the Hill/Holiday/Teague group that is more realistic for New York.
The desire of team president Phil Jackson to emphasize the triangle offense more next season could factor into the Knicks' decision. Rose and Rondo are poor fits for the triangle because most of their value comes with the ball in their hands. Collison (a 38.0 percent career 3-point shooter who's making 41.9 percent of his 3s this season) and Mills (39.6 percent career, 41.7 percent this season) would be better fits in the triangle.
Despite cap limitations, New York could go a few different directions next season. Most likely, whatever direction the Knicks choose won't include Rose.