What's next for Joel Embiid, and is he the Rookie of the Year?

Will Joel Embiid be named Rookie of the Year? Who are the other candidates? What should we expect from Embiid going forward now that his first real season has ended early?

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton assess The Process and his ROY rivals.

Embiid this season and moving forward

Kevin Pelton: It's March 1 and Embiid's rookie season is already over. The Philadelphia 76ers center played just once since Jan. 20, after suffering a bone bruise to his right knee as well as a partial tear of the meniscus, and the knee swelled up after he went through a full practice last Thursday.

At 22-37, the Sixers had no reason to take any chances with their prized prospect. Do you agree, Chad?

Chad Ford: Yes. As you point out, Kevin, there's zero incentive for the 76ers to put him back out on the court and risk further injury. Embiid has proven that, when healthy, he can be a franchise cornerstone.

Also, the Sixers need to get the highest pick possible in the draft. Their best outcome is to end up with one of the top three picks in the draft and draft an elite guard, a major need for Philly.

If next season they come back with a healthy Embiid, a healthy Ben Simmons and potentially two other high lottery picks (the Sixers have their pick, which they can swap with the Sacramento Kings' pick if it's in the top 10, and the L.A. Lakers' pick if it falls outside the top three), the foundation from "the process" should be complete.

Pelton: Despite all the other talent the team has amassed, at this point, Embiid looks like the centerpiece of Philadelphia's core. Since this is it for his rookie season, let's discuss how it went. We saw massive improvement from Embiid as a rim-protector over the course of the season that was reflected in the 76ers' becoming a much better defensive team with him on the court.

Offensively, he handled a heavy load -- his 36.1 percent usage rate ranks third in the league behind that of Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins -- with surprising efficiency.

What did you think of what you saw from Embiid, and how will his role be different next season, if Philadelphia adds a healthy Simmons and one (or maybe two) of the top guards in this year's draft?

Ford: He was amazing. I'm not sure I've ever seen a rookie performance quite like it. But it was under some unique circumstances. Had Simmons been healthy or had the Sixers traded Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel earlier for talent, I don't think we would have seen a 36 percent usage rate.

But look: Embiid has a chance to be the best defender in the NBA someday. Offensively, he's really just scratching the surface. He has so many skills. His decision-making on the court isn't always the best, but given that he has played just 31 games in the past three seasons, it has been better than I expected. As Embiid continues to get experience, his ceiling is very, very high.

Next year? I think Embiid is going to be faced with a completely different situation. Adding Simmons and someone such as Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and/or Malik Monk will give the Sixers some significant offensive firepower going forward. I expect Embiid's usage rate to drop but his efficiency to rise.

Pelton: Specifically, one change is we'll probably see more of Embiid as a screener in the pick-and-roll game and less of him posting up. According to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, Embiid has averaged .88 points per play in the post, compared to 1.14 points per play as a roll man. Yet Embiid had more than twice as many plays in the post as in the pick-and-roll. Granted, those samples are pretty small, but in general, pick-and-roll plays are far more efficient, so turning some post-ups into pick-and-roll plays should help Embiid.

As we're projecting him ahead, do you think Embiid's limited playing time hampers his development? Do you think his latest injury affects how Philadelphia plans for the future?

Ford: I felt that missing the past two years was going to really limit Embiid's development. But after watching him play this season, it was clear that he spent his time off the court improving his game. Although Embiid still makes lots of rookie decisions out there, I don't think missing a few more games this season will be a major setback.

I don't get the sense that the Sixers feel this injury to his knee is in any way related to his foot or back injuries that originally kept him off the floor the past two seasons. I think they'll continue to be cautious with him next year, but I'm not sure that's a huge concern. If anything, 76ers fans should appreciate the cautious approach Philly has taken with its talent. The franchise is looking for long-term gains, not short-term ones.

I think the harder adjustment will be meshing on-court with Simmons and at least one high lottery pick. The good news is Simmons is unselfish and an elite passer. The Sixers will probably add a floor spacer in the draft as well. All of that should bode well for Embiid going forward.

Who is the Rookie of the Year?

Pelton: All right, let's wrap things up by discussing the Rookie of the Year race. With Embiid's season over, has he done enough to win the trophy?

With the caveat that we still have six weeks of the season to play, I'm skeptical that anyone is going to surpass Embiid in terms of value, once you factor in replacement level. Embiid currently has 4.5 wins above replacement player (WARP) by my metric, and that's more than the next two rookies combined.

You can make a case for Malcolm Brogdon, who has outpaced Embiid in wins generated based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), but unless Brogdon or someone else really finishes strong, I'm inclined to pick Embiid. How about you? Do you see anyone making a late charge?

Ford: I'm still picking Embiid as well. That is a comment about how dominant Embiid was when he was on the floor and how weakly the 2016 draft class has performed, with Simmons' injury a factor.

I've seen some rumblings among NBA folks for Dario Saric for Rookie of the Year, and I've heard a little buzz about Brogdon. But I don't see the media handing either player the trophy. For what's worth, I'd take 31 games of Embiid over 82 games of Saric or Brogdon.