The 2015 NBA rookie class headlined by Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis and Nikola Jokic added a deep collection of talent to the league with plenty of star potential. NBA scouts and GMs expect the 2017 class -- with Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball at the top -- to do the same.
But what about 2016?
This could be the least productive rookie crop in decades. More than halfway through the season, how does it compare to previous slow-starting classes? Who are the potential gems? And how much hope is there that they'll break out beyond 2016-17?
Following the All-Star break, we're ditching our weekly player rankings to check in on the rookies.
How does 2016 compare?
Coming out of the All-Star break, perhaps the most tantalizing non-playoff related storyline down the stretch was the much-anticipated rookie tag-team debut of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.
Instead, Embiid is out indefinitely pending an MRI on his knee while the 76ers announced that we'll have to wait until next season to see Simmons on an NBA floor as his broken foot has not yet fully healed.
With the Sixers' sensation back on the shelf, the next man in line for valedictorian honors in the rookie class is ... Malcolm Brogdon? According to game score -- which basically adds up the good parts from a player's box score stats and subtracts the bad -- the Bucks rookie and 36th overall selection has been the NBA's second-best rookie this season.
Last season we were spoiled.
Not only did Towns deliver one of the most dominating rookie seasons ever by a No. 1 overall pick, Porzingis emerged as a potential franchise player in the league's biggest market. Though D'Angelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor have hit speed bumps, both have flashed potential while players such as Myles Turner and Devin Booker occasionally tease All-Star ability. Then there's Nikola Jokic -- a 2014 draft pick who came over a year later and now looks like a surefire All-Star as the man in Denver.
If you compare the game scores of rookies over the past two seasons, seven of the top 10 come from last season's group. Of the three current rookies in that group, Brogdon is a second-round pick who's actually older than Anthony Davis after a four-year career at Virginia, while Embiid and Dario Saric were originally 2014 selections.
Comparing game scores pick-by-pick reveals the 2015 class to be superior at almost every turn. In fact, almost every player chosen in the lottery in 2015 outperformed the player picked in that same draft position in 2016 when comparing game scores from their rookie seasons. The exception is eighth overall pick Marquese Chriss, who has put up better numbers than Stanley Johnson did last season in Detroit (but even Chriss didn't overtake Johnson until the last game before the All-Star break).
Of course, limiting it to a "2015 vs. 2016" debate leaves open the possibility that this has more to do with the relative strength of last season's crop than necessarily the collective underachievement of the current group. Widening our net reveals that is not the case. Not even close.
Last year marked the 20th anniversary of the famed 1996 draft class, which is in the discussion with 1984 and 2003 as the best ever. I mean, seriously, look at these guys. There's a reason this poster hung in the room of a young and impressionable 10-year-old, yours truly. And that photo doesn't even include Allen Iverson and Peja Stojakovic, who combined to make 14 All-Star teams.
Starting with that year, we looked at every player drafted since then and averaged their game scores from their rookie seasons. Looking at every player drafted, the only rookie class with a worse collective average game score is the motley crew from 2000 that featured top-5 picks Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer and Mike Miller. It's perhaps fitting that, like Brogdon, so far this year the best player from that class was also a second-round pick by the Bucks in Michael Redd.
If limiting our scope to just first-round picks, the 2016 class is performing worse as rookies than any draft class over the past two decades. Ditto if looking at the collective performance of just lottery picks.
Perhaps just as underwhelming as the collective underachievement is looking at how players have individually performed relative to their expected performance and draft position. Just as we compared players drafted in the same slot in 2015 and 2016, we can do the same thing over our 20-year span to generate an expected game score for rookies at any given draft position. Players taken No. 4 overall are generally expected to perform better than those taken No. 14, and so forth.
When comparing this year's rookies to their respective draft positions' expected average game score (using a collective average from 1996 to 2015), just four of the 30 first-round picks have exceeded expectations. You have to go all the way to No. 15 pick Juancho Hernangomez to find a rookie outperforming the past 20 players taken at that same spot. The others are Caris LeVert, Pascal Siakam and Skal Labissiere. Siakam started the majority of the season in Toronto but hasn't played since the team traded for Serge Ibaka while Labissiere has played in only 10 games and is only now getting extended burn with DeMarcus Cousins no longer in Sacramento.
Room for improvement?
What does it all mean moving forward?
For starters, this is all based purely on play up to this point and ignores circumstances. Many players in the 2016 can still get a shot not only to stick but to shine.
We've discussed Simmons and Embiid. Brandon Ingram will have opportunities on a young team, just had his first 20-point game and was never expected to take a star turn immediately anyway because of his slender frame.
Buddy Hield just got traded to a team with no clear star and plays for an owner who will give him every chance to succeed, even if he doesn't turn into Stephen Curry. Kris Dunn is sitting behind Ricky Rubio, though he should eventually get his shot to run the show alongside Towns and Andrew Wiggins.
Jaylen Brown has flashed potential on a playoff team that won't ask him to do too much too soon. Chriss and Dragan Bender should keep getting extended looks as well, though neither will likely be featured anytime soon playing off Eric Bledsoe and Booker.
In many cases, the same circumstances that have yielded underwhelming rookie performances are the same ones that leave room for hope. Even that 2000 draft class -- widely considered one of the worst in NBA history -- produced three All-Stars (Martin, Redd and Jamaal Magloire).
As for the players who made it back from All-Star Weekend, James Harden remains in first place in our season-long rankings, just a nose in front of Russell Westbrook. The rest of our top 10 remains unchanged save for some jockeying from six through 10.