Ranking Towns, Porzingis and NBA sophomores by future potential

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton are back with their series on NBA prospects, rookies and sophomores -- this time ranking their top 10 NBA sophomores by future potential.

Still the sophomore with the most potential

Pelton: When we checked in on the 2015-16 NBA rookie class in April, there was an obvious choice for who had the most long-term potential followed by a more interesting debate over the next few spots. Midway through these players' second seasons, it's a good time to revisit the question and see what has changed -- and what hasn't.

The top spot falls into the latter category for me. While Karl-Anthony Towns hasn't taken the step forward defensively we hoped he might take under new Minnesota Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau, Towns' potential is still immense. He leads all second-year players in wins above replacement player (7.4 WARP by my metric), and nobody else is particularly close.

Towns has made important strides as an offensive force. He's creating more of his shots this season (43.6 percent of his 2-point attempts have been unassisted, per Basketball-Reference.com, up from 33.3 percent as a rookie) without sacrificing much efficiency, is setting up teammates more often (his assists per 36 minutes are up from 2.2 to 3.0) and has already made more than 50 percent more 3s than he did as a rookie (albeit at just 30.5 percent accuracy).

Yes, Towns will have to improve his defensive effort and focus to make good on his enormous potential. But at 21, he's got plenty of time to get there. And if he does, the rest of the league should look out.

Chad, is there any question in your mind about whether Towns ranks No. 1?

Ford: No, it's still Towns for me, though both Kristaps Porzingis and Nikola Jokic have sure made their cases this season.

Again, the key for me is we're ranking by long-term potential and I think Towns is still just scratching the surface. Offensively, he continues to show just how talented he is.

I think the defensive issues have caught us all by surprise -- for both Towns and the entire team. Great defense has always been Thibodeau's strength. I'm assuming in time he's going to change the culture of that team and ultimately that will become a plus for Towns as well.

The next two second-year players

Ford: So if Towns is still No. 1, who's next for you, Porzingis or Jokic? Both are having superb sophomore seasons.

Pelton: Just as we're destined to debate Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins for the next decade, I think Jokic vs. Porzingis will be the enduring question from last season's rookie class. I went Jokic last spring, then felt foolish when he flopped alongside Jusuf Nurkic in the Denver Nuggets' ill-fated starting lineup to begin the season.

Since Jokic returned to a smaller starting five with more appropriate floor spacing around him, however, the offensive results have been incredible. Only the San Antonio Spurs have a better offensive rating than the Nuggets in that span, per NBA.com/Stats. And Jokic is posting eye-popping stats: 24.7 points, 12.1 rebounds and a team-leading 7.3 assists per 36 minutes on .706 true shooting.

Defense is the only reason Jokic vs. Porzingis isn't a no-brainer (and why Jokic isn't yet threatening Towns). That new Denver starting lineup also struggled defensively, allowing 117.5 points per 100 possessions (which would be worst in the NBA over the full season), leading Kenneth Faried to replace Wilson Chandler at power forward.

Also, because Jokic's skills and pattern recognition are already so developed, he may not have as much room to grow as Porzingis.

But I'm still sticking with him in the No. 2 spot. Do you agree, Chad?

Ford: I've always leaned Porzingis and still do. But you are right, Jokic's offensive numbers since the Nuggets went small are absolutely incredible. However, we are talking long-term potential here, and Porzingis' potential on both ends of the floor gives him the edge for me.

Offensively, he continues to improve and his 40 percent shooting from 3-point range this season adds another dangerous weapon to his arsenal. Defensively, Porzingis' per-minute rebounding and shot-blocking numbers are down a bit, but I think some of that has to do with the role he has played in New York this season. Eventually, when the Knicks begin to figure out Porzingis is a 5 in the NBA, I think you'll see him making a much bigger impact defensively.

Porzingis has been in a bit of a slump lately as he has struggled with Achilles tendinitis. As long as that doesn't become a chronic issue, I still think he'll be the better player in three years.

Pelton: First, Porzingis is going to need to defend better (a recurring theme, no surprise with young players) when he is playing center. Using NBA.com/Stats lineup data, I find New York is allowing 113.5 points per 100 possessions with Porzingis at center -- even worse than the Knicks' overall 108.0 defensive rating.

While the injury may have derailed Porzingis' bid for an All-Star berth this season, he's on track to get there sooner rather than later and the fact that I have him third just underscores the depth of this season's rookie class.

Ford: Yes, at 21 Porzingis has a long ways to go defensively, but the physical tools are present to get him there. And that's my only issue with Jokic. He's clearly the superior offensive player right now. But I worry that Jokic's physical limitations will keep him from ever being a force defensively.

Still, when you have three 7-footers each making a major impact during their sophomore seasons, you have an elite rookie class.

Two spots, three sophs

Ford: Who do you have at No. 4, Kevin? I think this is where things get a lot more wide-open.

Pelton: Actually, I'd say we have four 7-footers making major impacts, with Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner next on my list. In fact, Turner actually has more WARP (4.7) this season than Porzingis (3.8).

Turner's box-score stats may overstate his value because his block rate (6.9 percent, third among players with at least 500 minutes of action) flatters his rim protection. In terms of shooting percentage allowed inside 5 feet, Turner ranks 31st among players who have defended at least five such shots per game at 51.1 percent, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats.

Still, Turner has been a solid starting center for the Pacers before his 21st birthday. As Turner adds NBA 3-point range (he has made 25 this season at an impressive 42.4 percent clip after attempting just 14 as a rookie), he's going to be difficult to stop in the pick-and-pop game. So I think there's a stronger case he belongs in a tier with the prospects ahead of him than anyone behind him.

Do you agree, or do you have someone different?

Ford: Turner is my No. 4 as well, and while I don't quite have him in the same tier as Towns, Porzingis or Jokic, I certainly think he can get there. Turner, to me, has always been more of a work in progress, but the progress is significant -- both as a defender and as an offensive player.

A couple of years ago, I think we could have credibly argued, as many did, that the center position appeared nearly dead. But here are four 7-footers having significant impact on their teams and, along with other young centers such as Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid, resurrecting the importance of big men in the NBA. Not big, lumbering dinosaurs, but big guys who can both protect the rim and stretch the floor. It's really fun to watch.

Who do you have at No. 5?

Pelton: D'Angelo Russell rounds out my top five. The No. 2 overall pick has made incremental progress in his second season, improving his assist rate from 4.2 per 36 minutes to 6.0, increasing his usage rate to 27.4 percent of the Lakers' plays (up from 24.2 percent) while maintaining his efficiency and improving on the defensive glass.

While Russell still has a long way to go in his development as a playmaker and defender, a look around the league shows the opposite story at point guard as at center: Russell is perhaps the league's best full-time point guard younger than age 24, which augurs well for his long-term development.

You've consistently favored Emmanuel Mudiay over Russell. Is that still the case?

Ford: No. Mudiay is still struggling and Russell is looking better. But neither is at No. 5 for me.

I know the advanced stats have not been kind to Devin Booker, but I still think he should make the top five on potential. He's a 20-year-old who is averaging better than 20 PPG, has the potential to be an elite shooter and shows an overall great feel for the game.

Booker is averaging 27.6 PPG in January and shooting 50 percent from 3. I know it's a small sample size and he has been streaky. I also know he hasn't brought a lot else to the table statistically. But I still see major upside from him and would bet he starts to figure out more ways to contribute down the road.

The second five

Ford: Who are your next five, Kevin?

Pelton: Here we go.

6. Devin Booker
7. Trey Lyles
8. Larry Nance Jr.
9. Sam Dekker
10. Montrezl Harrell

I don't totally disagree on Booker. I think there's a gap between Booker and Russell, but I still have him sixth. Although Booker's defensive stats are unlikely to improve much, I do think he'll become a much more efficient offensive player than he is now when put in a more appropriate role alongside better shot creators.

Booker and former Kentucky teammate Trey Lyles are the two other one-and-done prospects currently performing around replacement level or better. The others in the group, including Mudiay and No. 3 pick Jahlil Okafor, are so far from replacement level right now that I'm not convinced they're going to get there.

As a result, I'm rounding out my top 10 with three lower-upside prospects who are contributing far more to their teams right now.

Nance is already an above-average backup big man -- the Lakers have really missed him while he has been sidelined -- who might eventually grow to become a starter. And the Rockets managed to pluck a couple of rotation pieces in Harrell (who has replaced the injured Clint Capela at center without Houston missing a beat) and Dekker (solid off the bench after missing nearly his entire rookie season due to injury) at picks 18 and 32.

How about you, Chad?

Ford: Here's my list.

6. D'Angelo Russell
7. Trey Lyles
8. Justise Winslow
9. Emmanuel Mudiay
10. Jahlil Okafor

I'm with you on both Russell and Lyles. Both have very bright futures and the upside is still there. I'm going to go against the numbers and still hold out hope for three other one-and-dones who I just think it's too early to write off.

Winslow is out with season-ending shoulder surgery, but I still see a future that exceeds that of Nance, Dekker or Harrell (though Harrell would be No. 11 on my list and I really like how he's playing in Houston at the moment). Defensively, I think he still has the ability to be a lockdown wing.

Mudiay continues to be awful and I think it's only a matter of time before Jamal Murray replaces him. But there are still enough glimpses of a good player there that I can't write off Mudiay yet.

As for Okafor, I wonder how all of us got it so wrong on him during most of the year before the draft. There was a time early in the draft process when he was the consensus No. 1 guy. Now it's clear Okafor isn't as good as NBA scouts and I thought he was in November and December of his freshman season at Duke.

But I don't think Okafor is as bad as he looks many nights in Philly either. He needs a change of scenery badly and all indications are that the Sixers are going to give it to him -- probably in the next month. On a different team in a different situation, I think Okafor can be a quality starter in the NBA someday.