Ranking Porzingis, Towns and the top 10 rookies by future potential

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton of ESPN Insider continue their rookie evaluations, with insight from both scouting and stats.

Who makes the top five?

Kevin Pelton: It's a good time to revisit our rankings of rookies by long-term potential.

While I suspect there will be a number of changes from our original lists in December, the player in the top spot hasn't budged.

Karl-Anthony Towns of the Minnesota Timberwolves was the No. 1 overall pick, is the overwhelming favorite for Rookie of the Year and has the brightest future of any newcomer to the league.

Towns has posted 11.9 wins above replacement player this season by my metric, the most for a rookie since Blake Griffin in 2010-11 (12.5) and the third-best total by any first-year player in the 2000s (Chris Paul tops that list with 15.7).

That's even more impressive when you consider that Towns turned 20 early in the season. Among players who weren't yet 21 by the end of their rookie campaign, Towns is one of just three to crack double-digit WARP, joining Paul and Magic Johnson (14.6). Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Chad Ford: At this time last year, there was still a debate among NBA scouts between Towns and Jahlil Okafor. The general consensus that emerged was that while Okafor might be better in the short term, Towns ultimately would be the better player.

When the Wolves got the No. 1 pick on lottery night, that same debate raged in their offices up until about a week before the draft.

One year later? Not only was Towns better as a rookie (helping kill the idea that "NBA-ready" should matter in the draft), but I've heard numerous NBA scouts wonder whether he'll ultimately be better than Anthony Davis -- potentially the top player in the NBA someday.

That's how good he's been as a rookie, and while I still think I lean Davis in that debate, the fact that it's even a question shows just how good Towns has been this season.

Kevin, who's No. 2 on your board? I'm assuming little has changed.

Pelton: Actually, I'm throwing the first curveball here. As impressive as Kristaps Porzingis has been as a rookie, Nikola Jokic has been better.

As our Jeremias Engelmann noted in picking Jokic as Rookie of the Year, he's been the best rookie by a mile -- and one of the best players in the league -- by ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).

And while that stat can be noisy, Jokic also scores best in box plus-minus, which weights box-score stats by how well they predict adjusted plus-minus. (Towns is close enough there that he's better in terms of value, explaining why I still favor him for Rookie of the Year.)

It's not like Jokic is doing this as a 25-year-old rookie; he's 21, less than six months older than Porzingis. And it's not like this is out of line with the rest of Jokic's career. His European stats projected him nearly as well as Porzingis by my WARP projections.

Really, the only reason to be skeptical of Jokic is that he was drafted in the second round. At this point, however, it appears that scouts' fears that Jokic wouldn't be able to protect the rim as a center were inaccurate. According to SportVU tracking data on NBA.com/Stats, opponents are scarcely shooting better against him at the rim than they are against Towns.

As long as Jokic can hold his own on D, he brings so much offensively with his vision and ability to shoot the NBA 3 that I think he's surpassed Porzingis in future potential. Am I crazy here?

Ford: You're not crazy. Jokic has had one of the most underrated rookie seasons ever.

But if I were redrafting, I'd still take Porzingis. In addition to being taller and longer, he's a better athlete, and I think those physical tools will give him the edge long-term. Jokic may be more efficient right now, but I still feel Porzingis is just scratching the surface of what he can become -- both as a scorer and a defender.

Pelton: Naturally, Porzingis is third on my list, and that shouldn't be construed as a knock on his potential. Only Jokic has a better RPM among rookies, and Porzingis' 6.7 WARP are as many as any rookie posted either of the past two seasons.

I'd say the only thing that's changed since December is Porzingis' 3-point shooting hasn't come around as we hoped. Perhaps he's not the elite shooter for a big man we expected, but Porzingis is still making 84 percent of his free throws, so the shooting touch is evidently there.

Who's third for you, Chad?

Ford: It's taken me longer to get on the Jokic bandwagon. But I'm persuaded by the stats, especially the RPM numbers and the company he keeps. He comes in at No. 9 in RPM and everyone else in the top 17 -- with the exception of DeAndre Jordan (who's made an All-NBA Team) -- is or has been an All-Star.

Obviously we'll know more when his minutes increase, but for all the reasons you mentioned, I don't think there's any reason to doubt that Jokic is going to be a very productive NBA player for a long time. He was dramatically underrated before the draft because of a perceived lack of athleticism.

But I think, as you pointed out, it hasn't hurt him defensively.

After this I think the consensus may break down a little. Right? Who's No. 4 for you?

Pelton: While he hasn't shown the two-way potential of the big men ahead of him on this list, I think D'Angelo Russell is the safest bet for stardom among everyone remaining.

Russell hasn't played as well since we raved about him a few weeks ago, and obviously he is trying to rebuild trust with his teammates now after the video he shot of teammate Nick Young leaked online.

But I think it's easy to get trapped in the moment with an event like this and forget how such a seemingly huge story can become a footnote over time. In basketball terms, Russell has been ahead of the curve as a 20-year-old point guard, and players similar to him have tended to develop into All-Stars.

Does our consensus continue?

Ford: I'm stubborn. Really stubborn. But I still believe Emmanuel Mudiay will end up being a better point guard than Russell.

I know I don't have a lot of statistical evidence other than to say that Mudiay has gotten better as the season goes on and in March averaged nearly 16 PPG and 5 APG, shot 39 percent from 3 and reduced his turnovers to just 2.4 per game.

Given how huge the transition was for Mudiay from China to the NBA, I'm going to selectively choose that evidence to show he's on the upswing as an NBA prospect. Given the direction Russell has been heading lately, it's Mudiay by a nose for me.

I just hope you'll still speak to me after this betrayal of every stat known to man.

Pelton: The problem is Mudiay hit an identical 39 percent of his 2-pointers, so his true shooting percentage was still poor (.470), even in March. So while I too like Mudiay's potential more than his performance to date would indicate, he's not in my top five.

That's rounded out by Devin Booker. Like Mudiay, Booker is probably being asked to do too much too soon. As he's gone from role player to creator, Booker's 3-point percentage has slipped from better than 50 percent through New Year's Day to a league-average 35 percent now.

And he's one of the league's weaker defenders, which explains why Booker ranks 91st among shooting guards in RPM.

Nonetheless, Booker handling the ball more gives him a much higher ceiling than it appeared when he was strictly a spot-up specialist. Of the nine players like Booker who have used at least 22 percent of their team's plays during a season played entirely at age 19, all but Bradley Beal and J.R. Smith developed into All-Stars (and Beal still has time to do so). That's heady company.

So, Chad, Booker or Russell? Or someone else?

Ford: It's a tough call between those two. I like them both. But if I had the No. 5 pick in the draft today and could take anyone, I think I'd grab Myles Turner here.

I've been so impressed with him as a rookie. Turner's performance has been uneven, and he's regressed a bit since he averaged 13.4 PPG and nearly 2.0 BPG in February. But I think with more experience and strength, he's got a chance to be really good -- the rare big man who can both protect the rim and stretch the floor.

On long-term potential, I have him just a little ahead of Russell and Booker.

Ranking the rest of the top 10

Ford: Time for the speed round. Who do you have No. 6 to No. 10 on your final rookie board of the season?

Pelton: Here's the rest of mine:

6. Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers
7. Justise Winslow, Miami Heat
8. Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers
9. Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets
10. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets

We're not far off on Turner's potential -- particularly once he turns those long 2s into 3s.

Winslow's defensive ability makes him perhaps one of the five best rookies this season. He's going to have to dramatically improve his shooting to match the players in front of him as they develop.

Okafor is the most challenging player to rank. He showed his offensive ability by stepping away from the basket more after he struggled with shot blockers. Yet Okafor's defense is such a problem that he ranks last among centers in RPM, and by a wide margin at that. There's a chance Okafor never gets it at that end, which is why he hasn't moved up this list.

Mudiay has the same low floor because he's currently such an ineffective player. Like Okafor, he's got the tools to be so much more, and his SCHOENE comparables remain solid (Russell Westbrook tops the list).

Lastly, Hollis-Jefferson has a high floor because of his defense and the potential to become a quality role player in the Jae Crowder mold if he can make an open jumper.

Perhaps the greatest testament to this rookie class is the quality prospects who don't crack my top 10.

Willie Cauley-Stein and Frank Kaminsky are two experienced players who have been more useful as rookies than their younger peers. Cameron Payne is on track to develop into a starting point guard. Trey Lyles has shown high skill level for such a young big man. And Mario Hezonja, Stanley Johnson, Kelly Oubre and Bobby Portis have shown flashes.

Are any of them in your top 10?

Ford: I've got ...

6. D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers
7. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
8. Justise Winslow, Miami Heat
9. Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers
10. Trey Lyles, Utah Jazz

We talked about Russell and Booker above.

I too think that Winslow's defensive ability is so good that even if he doesn't develop into an elite offensive player, he has major value in the league. And if he ever develops a jumper? He could be a star.

Okafor has been such a good player offensively, it's hard to leave him off the list. Though I agree with you that the defensive liabilities are a major, major concern going forward.

Lyles is a sleeper for me. His development as the season has gone on as a stretch 4 is so impressive. In the last five games he's shot 10-for-22 from 3. If he can continue to hit that shot (he's at 39 percent for the year), he's going to be a very valuable weapon for the Jazz.

And you're right, there's more. I'm a big Hollis-Jefferson fan. Ditto for Payne. And I still see major upside from guys like Hezonja and Oubre. I definitely could see all of them pass some of the guys we've listed if they hit their ceiling.