When the NBA awards the rookie of the year in April or early May, it's highly likely that Karl-Anthony Towns of the Minnesota Timberwolves will win -- and that Kristaps Porzingis of the New York Knicks will be the runner-up in the voting.
But if we are talking about on-court impact, that is not the correct outcome. Surprisingly, neither budding star has been the best rookie this season.
For much of the season, Porzingis has been the top rookie in impact as measured by real plus-minus (RPM), which I created with Steve Ilardi.
Now, in the second half of the season, a new contender has emerged: Nikola Jokic.
Who deserves the award? Let's take a closer look.
The No. 1 pick: Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns has fulfilled expectations, dominating other rookies in several statistical categories. He ranks first in points (18.0) and rebounds per game (10.3, eighth overall in NBA).
Best of all, his scoring is efficient, showing great touch and requiring relatively few possessions. He's hitting 56.1 percent of his 2-point shots and 34.4 percent of his 3s, plus 81.8 percent at the line -- all without a lot of turnovers.
On defense, in addition to the rebounding, he provides 1.7 blocks per game, ninth in the league.
Yet, according to RPM, his overall impact is only fourth best among rookies. What gives?
Towns seems to have less impact on the defensive side of the ball than his box-score numbers would suggest -- something that is quite common with players his age (Towns turned 20 in November).
When we dig deeper into play-by-play data, the picture becomes clearer: Towns excels at two statistical categories that correlate with stat-stuffing, whether this is intentional or not.
First, he is 16th in the league in goaltends. This is harmful because of the free points it provides opponents and also because it indicates an overeager defensive approach -- there is more to rim protection than swatting shots.
Second, many of his defensive rebounds are off of opponent free throws -- he ranks fourth in the league in that particular category. These rebounds seldom add to the team rebounding totals, and therefore are of relatively little value.
They may also indicate that a player is too concerned about individual stats. In any case, they boost the box-score numbers without doing much for actual winning and losing -- and actual impact is what RPM is designed to measure.
Therefore, KAT's stats, while excellent, include a bit of fluff.
The Wolves are a bottom-two defensive team, ranking 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and they are even worse when Towns is on the floor -- Minnesota allows 3.3 points more per 100 possessions when he is playing.
Towns has all the earmarks of a future superstar and a ROY winner. But he has not been the best rookie this season.
The hero they need: Kristaps Porzingis
After the boos he endured on draft night, it didn't take Porzingis long to win the hearts of Knicks fans. The big man's talent, numerous putback dunks and overall production were immediately impressive.
Armed with exceptional fundamentals for someone his size and a good work ethic, he was able to impact the game to a significantly larger degree than rookies generally do.
Porzingis leads all rookies in blocks and is third in scoring and second in rebounds per game. He may not be scoring with great efficiency -- he is sporting a slightly-below-average 51.1 true shooting percentage -- but he manages to keep his turnovers low at just 1.7 per game.
Like Towns, he is able to hit free throws at a good enough clip for a big man that his team doesn't have to worry about his foul shooting becoming a liability.
As good as his statistical production currently is, the ability to hit 3s at 7-foot-3 has people rightfully excited about his future, and puts him in a very small group of players.
Any fear that Porzingis could end up closer to being like Andrea Bargnani than Dirk Nowitzki has little substance. Shooting percentage aside, Porzingis has outperformed Bargnani's rookie year in every statistical category, and that includes blocking twice as many shots.
Porzingis' production isn't just empty calories either, as it is with many other rookies. The Knicks play better on both offense and defense when Porzingis is on the court. They are getting outscored by less than one point per 100 possessions when he plays, but by about six points per 100 when he sits. Given that Porzingis often faces opponent starters, these numbers are very impressive.
According to RPM, his impact is plus-2.3 points per 100 possessions. In almost any other year, that would be good enough to rank first among rookies and to earn our ROY vote.
The second-round pick who should win: Nikola Jokic
The Denver Nuggets drafted Jokic in the second round of the 2014 NBA draft, No. 41 overall, with little fanfare. When he came over to Denver from the Adriatic League in 2015, not a lot was expected of the rookie, then age 20 and regarded as having below-average athleticism.
Now Jokic has become one of the most effective players in the entire NBA, beating out superstars such as James Harden, Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins in per-minute impact, according to RPM.
Jokic isn't the leading rookie in any particular box-score stat, but he is above average in all of them. At 6-foot-10, it's no surprise that he is second in rebounds per game and fifth in blocked shots, but what makes Jokic great is that he excels in aspects of the game often reserved for guards and wings.
Among rookies, he is sixth in assists per 36 minutes and second in steals, ahead of most rookie guards and defensive specialists, including D'Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay (Jokic's teammate), Stanley Johnson and Justise Winslow.
Only four times since 1999-2000 has a player of Jokic's size managed to collect more than 3.5 assists and 1.6 steals per 36 minutes.
His scoring efficiency is eye-catching, too. Jokic is shooting 53.1 percent on 2s and 36.9 percent on 3s, contributing to a true shooting percentage of 58.1, third best among rookies and well ahead of Porzingis.
It is extremely tough to find holes in Jokic's game, as evidenced by the fact that his plus-minus numbers back up his prolific box-score production. When he is on the court, the Nuggets are about five points better per 100 possessions on both sides of the ball.
He has been so good that the lowly Nuggets are actually outscoring opponents by three points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor.
Given his limited athleticism, Jokic may not have a ton of upside, but as the league's ninth-best player in RPM, he does not need it. And although he may have played fewer minutes than his ROY competition, his per-minute impact dwarfs that of any other rookie.
Simply put, when he's on the floor, he has been the best rookie, and by a large margin -- large enough for him to be my pick for rookie of the year.