The deal
Bulls get: Guard Cameron Payne, center Joffrey Lauvergne, guard Anthony Morrow
Thunder get: Forward Taj Gibson, forward Doug McDermott, 2018 second-round pick
Oklahoma City Thunder: B
Rookie Domantas Sabonis has quietly been a drag on the Thunder's starting lineup for weeks. As exciting as his early 3-point accuracy (44.4 percent through Dec. 23) was, it proved unsustainable. Starting on Christmas Day, Sabonis has gone 7-of-48 (14.6 percent) from beyond the arc.
Though such poor shooting is probably equally unsustainable, without the 3s propping up his efficiency and with free throw attempts few and far between (he's shot 33 in 57 games), Sabonis has become one of the league's most inefficient role players with a .472 true shooting percentage. To seriously compete in the playoffs, Oklahoma City had to upgrade at power forward, and Gibson will help at the defensive end, providing stouter rebounding and rim protection.
The offensive fit is a tad trickier. The Thunder's starting five was already short on outside shooting, a big reason Sabonis was serving as a stretch 4, and Gibson is another non-3-point shooter alongside incumbents Andre Roberson and Steven Adams. However, Oklahoma City has made it work in the past when Adams plays with Enes Kanter, and Gibson is as good a midrange shooter as Kanter.
So the Thunder's starting lineup should be better. What about Oklahoma City's bench? That might take a hit with the swap of Payne for McDermott, which means for now Semaj Christon returns to the role of backup point guard he held the season's first two months. According to NBA.com/Stats, the Thunder have been outscored by 7.8 points per 100 possessions when Payne plays instead of Russell Westbrook. Swap Christon in for Payne and that drops to a minus-12.0 net rating.
McDermott's likely to play more than Morrow, which upgrades Oklahoma City's floor spacing with the second unit, but I'd like this move a lot more if the Thunder were able to sign a veteran point guard who gets bought out. (Alternatively, coach Billy Donovan might just plan to use Victor Oladipo as his backup point guard in the postseason.)
We'll see this summer whether Oklahoma City re-signs Gibson, an unrestricted free agent looking to secure his last big contract at age 32. The Thunder's current 2017-18 salary commitments give the team about $7.5 million to spend without paying the luxury tax. Re-signing either Gibson or starting Roberson, a restricted free agent, would likely mean Oklahoma City going into the tax. Re-signing both would mean a hefty tax bill.
If Gibson is just a rental, the price isn't terrible, particularly because the Thunder retain McDermott and get a second-round pick. But the upside for Oklahoma City this season is limited. I don't see the Thunder getting any higher than sixth in the West standings, and a first-round matchup against the Houston Rockets isn't that much more favorable than one against the San Antonio Spurs. Oklahoma City is a long shot to win either series.
Chicago Bulls: C
Whether this trade made sense for the Bulls will be determined primarily by Payne's development. If he proves capable of starting at point guard, that's a fine return for an expiring contract and a reserve whose defensive limitations might prevent him from becoming anything more than that (McDermott). If Payne is nothing more than a backup, Chicago probably bought high.
The last pick of the 2015 lottery, Payne delivered a reasonably promising rookie season at age 21. But since returning from a fractured bone in his right foot just after New Year's Day, Payne has struggled badly. He's making just 34.6 percent of his 2-point attempts.
Weighing his entire NBA career, my SCHOENE projection system pegs Payne about as valuable as a late first-round pick. The most likely outcome for him seems to be ending up a decent backup point guard rather than a starter, putting him in a similar group to the former first-round picks Chicago already has at point guard (Michael Carter-Williams and Jerian Grant). Factoring in contracts, I'd say Payne is the most valuable of those three players, but not by much.
I doubt the Bulls will really miss McDermott despite their need for floor spacing. Because of his poor defense, he's rated below replacement level by ESPN's real plus-minus throughout his career. Still, I can't totally understand why it's Chicago that threw a second-round pick into this deal instead of the other way around.