While a lot of attention is being given to Isaiah Thomas and his prolific scoring run, the Boston Celtics as a whole have become one of the best-positioned teams in the NBA -- for this season and the future. Yes, a squad with two former MVPs such as the Golden State Warriors and any Eastern Conference team with LeBron James such as the Cleveland Cavaliers will be in a good position, but those teams are built with the present in mind.
Boston has propped itself up as maybe the best team in that next tier behind last year's NBA Finals participants. In fact, the Celtics are not only within reach of the No. 1 seed in the East, but they could also land the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft, too.
What are the chances they do both? And entering an important trade deadline, how does Boston stack up against its peers hoping to become title contenders?
Long-term outlook
Pretty much everyone knows the Celtics have the rights to swap first-round picks with the Brooklyn Nets in 2017. That pick has a 25 percent chance of being No. 1 overall, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), and a guarantee of being in the top four if Brooklyn finishes last in the league (the Nets are projected to finish 9.5 games worse than the second-worst Phoenix Suns).
Overall, the Celtics have four picks in the 2017 draft, which includes the underrated second-round pick from the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota has a 52.9 percent chance at getting a top-seven pick, with identical odds for the second-rounder Boston owns landing between Nos. 31 and 37.
In 2015, ESPN Insider's Kevin Pelton came up with an NBA draft trade value chart, based on his wins above replacement (WARP) stat. Using that helps quantify Boston's draft assets for 2017.
While this puts Boston in a great position to draft a superstar, this team already has plenty of guys in their primes. The average age on the Celtics is about 25, and guys such as Thomas and Al Horford will want to contend soon if not now. In addition to having a treasure chest of assets, can they add another star?
Adding star power
Believe it or not, Boston is currently below the salary cap by less than $1 million. That gives them roughly $20 million to spend before they hit the luxury tax this season. Additionally, Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko and Kelly Olynyk are all free agents next season. That's another $20 million that can come off the books in the summer for Boston or a potential trade partner.
When you factor in that salary cap flexibility, along with all the picks and young talent, the Celtics should be able to cater to any trade partner's needs. Need to dump a contract? Boston has space and expiring deals. Need some prospects? Boston has plenty of draft picks, and even some potentially promising players stashed internationally (Ante Zizic, Guerschon Yabusele).
The key factor is finding a team willing to give up a superstar. Larry Bird reportedly won't take calls on Paul George. Carmelo Anthony seemingly isn't going to waive his no-trade clause, and even if he did, would he really send Boston over the top? There is one superstar in a bad situation: Jimmy Butler.
Adding a two-way All-Star wing to play alongside your All-Star point guard and power forward makes the most sense. The key will be meeting Chicago's needs. If Chicago wants to offload Rajon Rondo, then maybe a third team could assuage their demands -- or worst case, the Celtics absorb the cap hit and waive Rondo. Boston should look at the situation carefully because timing is everything and there's a chance to make a low-risk gamble that might pay off big in the playoffs.
Contending in the East
Yes, we all have seen Thomas shoulder the scoring load for the Celtics, averaging 33.0 PPG on .500/.414/.941 shooting splits since he missed four games halfway through December. The Celtics won 20 of 26 games over that span and are were on a seven-game win streak before losing to the Sacramento Kings Wednesday night. Horford missed nine games in November and now has enough games under his belt to mesh with the team. Boston has 12 guys that average more than 10 minutes per game and are looking to continue this success after the All-Star break.
While the Celtics have trended up, the Raptors have been trending down. BPI might rate the Raptors as the better team, but it projects the Celtics finishing second in the East and five games back from Cleveland with a 51-31 record.
And that dual No. 1 & No. 1 status? Along with the 25 percent odds at top choice in the draft, Boston has a 7 percent chance for No. 1 in the East, per BPI. Home court in a playoff series with Cleveland would give Boston a 9 percent greater chance of advancing.
Boston is a near lock at a top-three seed (86.4 percent) and is the favorite to land the second seed (44.4 percent), per BPI. BPI also gives the Celtics a 14.5 percent chance of reaching the NBA Finals, which is fifth-best in the league.
To do that, Boston will almost definitely need to beat Cleveland at some point (or hope Toronto does that itself). In a playoff series between Cleveland and Boston in which Cleveland is the home team, Boston would have about a 1-in-3 chance of winning, according to BPI. The Celtics would be underdogs, but they would still have a decent chance. Of course, adding another star or potential injuries would change the math.
The window in which a team can contend can be minuscule, and even undetectable until after the fact. It is very easy to swing to one end of the spectrum: win now or invest in the future. It is fortunate to have one of those options, and even more lucky to have both. Where Boston currently stands, the franchise has the chance to accomplish both without sacrificing the other.
There is a real chance they can make the NBA Finals by picking up a superstar without mortgaging their future. This might be the peak before the valley, but steer the ship correctly, and this team could make championship discussions a three-team debate.
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