Now that the 2017 NBA All-Star starters are official, here are my picks for the reserves in the East and West, featuring four first-time selections and players from 13 teams.
East backcourt
Kyle Lowry
Position: PG
Toronto Raptors
Experience: 10 years
Let's be clear about something: Although teammate DeMar DeRozan was chosen ahead of Lowry for a starting spot in the East, it's Lowry who has been the driving force in the Raptors again ranking second in the conference.
With both guards on the court, Toronto outscores opponents by 10.0 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats. With just DeRozan, they get outscored by 6.0 points per 100 possessions. And yet with just Lowry, that improves to a plus-15.0 net rating. Those units pairing Lowry and four reserves (at least before Patrick Patterson moved into the starting five) have keyed Toronto's success.
Although he'll come off the bench after two years as a starter, Lowry has again been the best guard in the East.
Isaiah Thomas
Position: PG
Boston Celtics
Experience: Five years
When I picked my starters a week and a half ago, I went with John Wall over Thomas for the second backcourt spot. It doesn't really matter what order I pick them in now -- both players make my team, one as a wild-card selection -- but Thomas' fourth-quarter heroics have given him the upper hand in my mind.
The Celtics have generally played well this season without Thomas, which is why he rates a modest 17th among point guards in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). (Also a factor in Thomas' league-worst defensive RPM: The box score prior includes a component for height, which is going to work against someone listed at 5-foot-9.)
But Boston lost three of the four games Thomas missed, posting a 109.4 offensive rating in the fourth quarter of those losses. Their offensive rating in the fourth quarter with Thomas is 121.4; his 10.1 points per game in the final period are most in the NBA.com/Stats database (back through 1996-97). The fourth quarter ain't for everybody.
East frontcourt
Kevin Love
Position: PF
Cleveland Cavaliers
Experience: Eight years
I felt Love deserved to be an All-Star his first two seasons in Cleveland, when he wasn't chosen by coaches, and his case is even stronger this year. Love seems to be fully healthy after dealing with back issues and shoulder surgery, and he has increased his usage rate from 21.7 percent of Cleveland's plays in 2014-15 and 23.4 percent last season to 27.2 percent in 2016-17, not far off his rates with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Meanwhile, Love's resurgent 3-point shooting (38.2 percent) and career-best free throw accuracy (88.3 percent) mean this is the second-best season of his career in terms of true shooting percentage (.583).
Paul Millsap
Position: PF
Atlanta Hawks
Experience: 10 years
In contrast to Love, Millsap hasn't been quite as good in his past two seasons. His true shooting percentage (.526) has slipped far below league average (.549) because Millsap is an iffy 3-point shooter (31.7 percent), and he isn't hitting better than 50 percent of his 2-point attempts, as he did the past two seasons.
But the Hawks are still a far better team with Millsap on the court -- 10.9 points per 100 possessions better, according to NBA.com/Stats -- which reflects his growth into a two-way force. As a result, Millsap's plus-5.6 rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) ranks ninth in the league, ahead of Love (plus-4.8, 14th).
Paul George
Position: SF
Indiana Pacers
Experience: Six years
If we were picking the top 12 players in the East over the first half of the season, I'm not sure George would belong. Though George is posting a career-best .575 true shooting percentage, his declining usage and assist rates and drop-off defensively have him 44th in the league in wins above replacement player by my WARP metric (4.0).
Still, one of my core beliefs is that All-Star selections should be about more than just three months of basketball, and we're not far removed from George having a case as the East's second-best player. There's also no frontcourt option with a vastly superior statistical case. Because of his limited playing time, trendy choice Joel Embiid has produced virtually identical 4.1 WARP despite rating better on a per-minute basis. So George is my pick based on his body of work.
East wild cards
John Wall
Position: PG
Washington Wizards
Experience: Six years
Kemba Walker
Position: PG
Charlotte Hornets
Experience: Five years
Given I picked Wall as a starter, he is an easy choice as a reserve. And so too is Walker, who ranks seventh among East players in WARP (6.6), ahead of both backcourt starters (DeMar DeRozan has 5.6 WARP and Kyrie Irving 4.4).
And if including five point guards makes for an imbalanced roster, at least it's a fun, imbalanced roster -- instead of having too many lumbering big men.
West backcourt
Russell Westbrook
Position: PG
Oklahoma City Thunder
Experience: Eight years
Ideally, the West could have started Westbrook, Stephen Curry and James Harden and shifted one of them to the frontcourt. Alas, that wasn't an option, so one of them had to be the odd man out.
Chris Paul
Position: PG
LA Clippers
Experience: 11 years
Despite the torn thumb ligament that will keep him out the next six to eight weeks, Paul easily merits a roster spot for his production so far. Selecting him and replacing him on the roster is a better outcome than omitting Paul because of the timing of his injury.
West frontcourt
Draymond Green
Position: PF
Golden State Warriors
Experience: Four years
The last of my three starters in the West frontcourt, Green was narrowly edged out by Anthony Davis for a starting spot. He'll make the roster either way.
Rudy Gobert
Position: C
Utah Jazz
Experience: Three years
It's interesting that Jazz fans seem to have focused their campaigning on Gordon Hayward for an All-Star spot ahead of Gobert. That's understandable given Hayward's seniority and it's possibly pragmatic, since he'll be an unrestricted free agent next summer, while Gobert just signed a four-year extension. But I wouldn't agree.
Gobert fares better by most value stats -- he has an 8.2 WARP to Hayward's 6.2 and 6.5 RPM wins to Hayward's 4.6. And Utah has played better with just Gobert on the court (plus-6.1 points per 100 possessions) than just Hayward (minus-2.4).
Gobert is the leader at the turn for Defensive Player of the Year and has developed into an elite finisher who's shooting 66.2 percent from the field. He has been the best center in the league in my book and is a deserving All-Star.
DeMarcus Cousins
Position: C
Sacramento Kings
Experience: Six years
Purely on box score stats, Cousins should be in the mix for a starting spot. His 9.0 WARP rank eighth in the league, while his plus-5.5 RPM is 10th. I tend to think those overrate Cousins, whose occasionally lackluster defensive effort is among the Kings' many issues. That's why I'd put Gobert ahead of him. Still, Cousins belongs on the roster as a reserve.
West wild cards
Marc Gasol
Position: C
Memphis Grizzlies
Experience: Eight years
He's not the defensive presence that Gobert is these days, and despite shooting 38.3 percent from 3-point range, Gasol is still scoring with average efficiency.
At the same time, his playmaking from the high post and role as the anchor of a top-five defense make Gasol the third center on my West roster. Maybe we can trade him to the East for a point guard for this game?
Gordon Hayward
Position: SF
Utah Jazz
Experience: Six years
The last spot on my 12-man roster came down to Hayward vs. Klay Thompson, two players in very different roles.
While Thompson has been content to feast on the shots set up by his three All-Star teammates this season (85.8 percent of his field goals have been assisted, per Basketball-Reference.com, second to J.J. Redick among players in the top 100), Hayward has carried an injury-riddled Jazz team (just 51.6 percent of his field goals have been assisted).
In that context, the fact that Hayward has actually been more efficient (.605 true shooting percentage) than Thompson (.584) is remarkable. Thompson's pedestrian value stats (1.8 WARP, 1.4 RPM) surely understate his value as an individual defender and floor spacer, but there's no way they understate it enough to make up the gap with Hayward.
West injury replacement
Mike Conley
Position: PG
Memphis Grizzlies
Experience: Nine years
Commissioner Adam Silver has the discretion to replace Paul on the roster if he's voted in by coaches, and typically that means a like-for-like swap.
If Silver goes for another point guard, I'd favor Conley over Damian Lillard of the Portland Trail Blazers. Lillard's defensive limitations have been a factor in the Blazers' disappointing season, while Conley has submitted perhaps the best first half of his career. He has been just as efficient as Lillard and better as a distributor, so his superior defense outweighs Lillard's edge in shot creation in my book.