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NBA All-Stars: Top picks for East, West, with five new starters

Kevin Pelton picks his All-Star starters for 2017. David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images

We'll have fresh blood in the NBA All-Star Game, with three likely new starters and perhaps as many as five.

Here are my picks for the East and West starting lineups, including five players who have never started before.


East backcourt

Kyle Lowry
Position: PG
Toronto Raptors
Experience: 10 years

In a conference deep with point guards, there's no question that Lowry has been the best. Somehow, Lowry has improved on a 2015-16 campaign that saw him earn All-NBA Third Team honors (the only East guard named to any of the six All-NBA spots) while posting career-high shooting percentages both inside (51.0 percent) and outside (44.5 percent) the arc.

Of the three best lineups in the NBA by net rating that have played at least 100 minutes, according to NBA.com/Stats, Lowry is part of two (along with four reserves, as well as the starters with Patrick Patterson in place of rookie Pascal Siakam). As such, he ranks fourth in the league in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).


John Wall
Position: PG
Washington Wizards
Experience: 6 years

The more interesting choice is among the four point guards, plus Lowry's teammate DeMar DeRozan, who can make a claim on the second backcourt spot in the East.

Let's take a look at how they compare in a few key statistical categories.

Let's start crossing guys off. If I had to win an NBA Finals game tomorrow, I'd take Kyrie Irving, but his effort and production haven't been the same during the regular season. DeRozan has had an excellent offensive season, maintaining a league-average true shooting percentage with one of the NBA's highest usage rates ... but his small usage rate advantage can't compare to Isaiah Thomas' superior efficiency and playmaking. Same with Kemba Walker, who has been slightly worse across the board than Thomas offensively.

That leaves us with the choice of the two leading candidates for East Player of the Month in December, and like the league, I'm going toward Wall. Although not nearly Thomas' equal as a scorer, Wall has been in a different league as a playmaker and more indispensable to his team -- hence Wall's sizable RPM advantage.


East frontcourt

LeBron James
Position: SF
Cleveland Cavaliers
Experience: 13 years

Because of the way he throttles back, James is no longer the most valuable player in the NBA (and perhaps the East) during the regular season. But he's awfully close, and when James reaches full potential ... well, you watched last year's NBA Finals, right?


Giannis Antetokounmpo
Position: SF
Milwaukee Bucks
Experience: 3 years

Because I already spent a full column raving about how Antetokounmpo has played this year, let me use this space to discuss something I couldn't fit in there: the Giannis Factor.

Although the combination of shot blocking and 3-point shooting is becoming increasingly common, Antetokounmpo has provided something rarer: shot blocking and the playmaking of a point guard. If you multiply a player's assist rate (per 100 team plays) and block rate (per 100 opponent 2-point attempts), you get the Giannis Factor, and only one player has ever surpassed his 2016-17 performance.

Andrei Kirilenko got there by relying a bit more heavily on his shot blocking than playmaking, and no player has ever surpassed what Antetokounmpo is currently doing in both halves of the Giannis Factor. Also, any list that combines the long limbs of Antetokounmpo and Kirilenko with Miller's, uh, "different" body type is a winner in my book.


Jimmy Butler
Position: SF
Chicago Bulls
Experience: 5 years

You can make a case for Kevin Love in this spot, and the Pauls (George and Millsap) have superior track records before this season, but I'd say Butler has clearly been one of the five best players in the East so far this season. He has managed to increase his usage rate for a fourth consecutive season (to 27.7 percent of Chicago's plays) while also posting a career-high .590 true shooting percentage.

Add in Butler's defense, and he rounds out the East starting five.

West backcourt

Russell Westbrook
Position: PG
Oklahoma City Thunder
Experience: 8 years

James Harden
Position: PG
Houston Rockets
Experience: 7 years

I discussed the remarkable offensive seasons these two superstars are having last week, and I found them virtually indistinguishable.

The one valid question is whether Stephen Curry's superior track record merits a starting spot. That's certainly a reasonable position; Curry was the MVP each of the past two seasons, after all.

But I lean toward Harden and Westbrook because they were both nearly as good at times in that span (Harden mounted a legitimate challenge to Curry's MVP case in 2014-15), so their performance is hardly fluky. Meanwhile, because of injuries, aging and inevitable regression to the mean, it seems unlikely we'll ever see Curry match what he did in 2015-16.


West frontcourt

Kevin Durant
Position: SF
Golden State Warriors
Experience: 9 years

Aside from a slight dip in his usage rate (down from 30.6 percent to 27.8 percent, which is in fact a career low), the biggest shift in Durant's statistics with his move to the Warriors is that they've become more power forward-y. Durant is rebounding more (grabbing a career-high 23.8 percent of all defensive boards) and blocking more shots (a career-best 3.7 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts) while assisting less (21.2 per 100 team plays, his lowest mark since 2011-12).

The sum player is more or less the same superstar Durant has always been and an easy choice to lead the West frontcourt.


Kawhi Leonard
Position: SF
San Antonio Spurs
Experience: 5 years

Even if not quite the defensive demon he was during his two Defensive Player of the Year campaigns, Leonard remains one of the league's most complete players.

He has taken his offense to new heights this year, dramatically increasing his share of the San Antonio offense (to 29.7 percent, up from 25.8 percent) with scarcely a drop in his efficiency (.609 true shooting percentage vs. .616 in 2015-16).


Draymond Green
Position: PF
Golden State Warriors
Experience: 4 years

The last spot in the West frontcourt is most interesting. DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis are putting up the biggest individual numbers, while traditional centers Marc Gasol, Rudy Gobert and DeAndre Jordan have cases predicated more on defense.

But I'm going with the unconventional big man who remains a crucial part of the Warriors' success.

Green has been as good as ever at the defensive end of the court and has maintained his key playmaking role on offense, despite the addition of Durant. As a result, RPM rates him fifth in the league, ahead of the two former MVPs on his team.

Although that might not last -- I'd consider Curry and Durant both more valuable -- that's good enough to earn Green a starting spot in the frontcourt.