What big flaw should each of the NBA's five best teams fix in 2017?
Here are our recommendations for the Warriors, Cavaliers, Raptors, Rockets and Spurs as they chase the title.
Last week, we offered up New Year's resolutions to help fix the biggest flaws on the league's cellar dwellers. Now it's time to turn our attention to the other end of the standings.
If it seems like nitpicking, that's fair. The bar is higher for the crème de la crème.
Golden State Warriors (No. 1 in BPI)
Big flaw: Stephen Curry doesn't look like a unanimous MVP
A popular nitpick with the Warriors is that they lack rim protection and could use another body down low. Given that they lead the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at the rim and blocks per game while ranking first in defensive efficiency since Thanksgiving, that just doesn't hold much weight.
A far simpler critique is that Curry just doesn't quite look like himself. In December, he averaged 20.9 points per game, his worst monthly total in three years, and shot just 43 percent, his worst monthly rate in four years. Curry also shot 38 percent from the deep, which snapped a streak of 15 straight months above 40 percent.
Those spurts where Curry goes unconscious and buries a team in a blink of an eye? Almost nonexistent, at least by his standards. After leading the league with 11 20-point quarters last season, Curry has done it just twice so far. His player efficiency rating (PER) is down nearly eight points from a season ago, and he has fallen outside the top 10 overall in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) and ranks fifth among point guards.
The Curry we've seen up to this point is closer to the one that we watched struggle in the NBA Finals, not the one who dominated the 2015-16 regular season wire to wire.
Solution: Keep shooting, and get more aggressive
This is probably nothing more than a slump. According to ESPN video tracking, 33 percent of Curry's shot attempts and 37 percent of his 3s last season were uncontested. This season those numbers are 34 percent and 38 percent, respectively. When sharing the floor with his full complement of All-Star teammates, those numbers rise even more, to 38 percent and 43 percent.
The biggest drop-off has been his ability to convert when covered. After shooting 44 percent on contested looks last season -- including 41 percent from downtown -- Curry's at 41 percent and 35 percent on those same shots this season, respectively. His 3-point percentage on contested looks dropped all the way down to 25 percent last month.
Has the addition of Kevin Durant created an over-reliance on unselfishly waiting for open looks? Flanked by two world-class scorers in Klay Thompson and KD, every questionable shot from Curry is potentially one fewer open look for his teammates. That might be why Curry ranks a comfortable third on his own team attempts. When it comes to sheer volume of contested attempts with the top four players sharing the floor, Curry had only taken 14 more than Draymond Green entering this week.
Our advice to the man who led the NBA in scoring just one season ago: Keep shooting, and get more aggressive. Once he breaks out of this "funk," Golden State's offense -- already scoring at a more efficient rate than any in modern history -- will only be more unstoppable, especially in clutch situations.
San Antonio Spurs (No. 2)
Big flaw: Point guard play
In his 16th season and with nearly 43,000 career minutes on the odometer, Tony Parker not only is clearly no longer an All-Star-caliber lead guard, he's no longer playing like a starting point guard either. Of the 30 players who lead their teams in starts at point guard, Parker ranks 20th in PER, one spot below Tim Frazier. Though San Antonio is managing his minutes -- a career-low 25.7 PPG, fewest among players with at least 20 starts at point guard -- his per-minute production has fallen off. Parker's 15.3 points per 36 minutes rank as the worst among all starting point guards on projected playoff teams, and his effective field-goal percentage of 48.2 would be his worst since 2003-04.
Parker also ranks 49th among all point guards in RPM and is a net-minus on both ends. It's a steep drop, considering he was the 25th-ranked point guard by RPM last season while still rating as a positive player on offense.
Solution: More minutes for Patty Mills
The good news is that the solution here is already on the roster. Mills is averaging just fewer than 23 MPG -- a career high but still less than Parker -- while posting 17 points per 36 minutes and an effective field-goal percentage of 59.9, which is 10 points higher than Parker and a mark that would rank first among all starting point guards.
The Spurs also have been far more potent with Mills at the wheel alongside the regular rotation. In more than 300 minutes with Mills, Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge playing, San Antonio has outscored teams by 10.8 points per 100 possessions compared with just 3.5 points per 100 possessions in almost 450 minutes with Parker. The Leonard-Aldridge-Mills combination has hummed to the tune of 115.5 points per 100 possessions, which would rank as the NBA's most efficient offense.
As it has for several seasons now, RPM not only portrays Mills as the superior player to Parker but also rates him among the best in the NBA.
While his box score stats probably will never pop -- and his current numbers get some boost from playing against backups at a loaded position -- virtually every indicator points to Mills as a better option than Parker, who could still play an important part on the Spurs, albeit in a smaller role.
Toronto Raptors (No. 3)
Big flaw: Hole at the 4
None of these team has a more serious positional hole than the Raptors at power forward. Rookie Pascal Siakam has started every game at the 4, whereas Jared Sullinger has yet to play this season and Patrick Patterson continues to come off the bench despite playing about 10 more minutes per game. Though there have been instances where head coach Dwane Casey has experimented by going small down the stretch of close games, a vast majority of their clutch-time minutes have been played with Patterson alongside Jonas Valanciunas.
Siakam brings Toronto next to nothing on the offensive end in the form of scoring or playmaking. There's also the fact that if Toronto fancies itself a true contender, it will need someone who can trade blows with Kevin Love, Draymond Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin or Ryan Anderson.
During the regular season it might not matter as much, because Toronto still rates as the NBA's most efficient offense. But once the latter rounds of the postseason arrive, you have to wonder if Toronto can get by rolling out an offensively challenged rookie at the 4.
Solution: Trade for Paul Millsap
This has been floating around for a while and was just addressed by Insider's Kevin Pelton this week.
Though some teams might not break the bank for a half-season rental, there figures to be competition in the bidding with the Atlanta Hawks. The Raptors could offer a package that includes the Clippers' 2017 first-round pick (lottery protected), future draft picks of their own (the Raptors don't owe any future firsts) and some combination of young players such as Norman Powell, Terrence Ross, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira and Bruno Caboclo.
Pelton floated sending Patterson, Ross, Poeltl and Delon Wright in addition to picks. For Toronto, the deliberation probably hinges on whether they'd rather keep Ross or Powell. Though Ross is the better offensive player -- he has a 50-point game to his credit and ranks as a borderline top-10 offensive small forward, according to RPM -- the Raptors would probably be better off holding onto Powell, the much better defensive player.
Powell ranks 10th among shooting guards in defensive RPM, a nice foil for DeMar DeRozan, who ranks outside the top 90. When DeRozan inevitably starts playing more minutes in the postseason it also lessens the need to keep Ross as an offensive force coming off the bench. And Powell has the benefit of a tiny rookie-scale deal, whereas Ross is owed more than $10 million a year through 2018-19.
The Raptors have the pieces to make a serious move that would truly threaten the Cavaliers in their bid for a third straight Finals appearance. They should go for it.
Houston Rockets (No. 4)
Big flaw: Over-reliance on James Harden
Harden does everything. With his move to point guard, he is scoring or assisting on more than 57 PPG, which would be the best in NBA history for a single season. While there are certainly similarities to what Harden is doing now and what Steve Nash did in the first of his MVP seasons in 2004-05, we haven't exactly seen this movie before. Nash scored or assisted on 42 PPG and had the benefit of playing alongside a pair of All-Stars in Amar'e Stoudemire and Shawn Marion as well as some other very talented pieces.
The Rockets have no such luxury. Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Patrick Beverley and Trevor Ariza are certainly good players, but nowhere near the level of Nash's running mates. While nobody might slow down Harden in the regular season, the playoffs could be a different story. So far this season with Harden on the floor, all four of those players have usage rates that are below 19 and over the course of the season would rank outside the top 125.
What will Houston do when the game slows down and teams key in on Harden?
Solution: Continue to expand Eric Gordon's role
For the first few weeks of the season, Houston got pummeled whenever Harden was out of the game. That's no longer the case. Since Beverley returned to the lineup on Nov. 17, the Rockets have outscored teams by 10.2 points per 100 possessions with Harden off the floor, a number that's actually slightly better than what they've done with Harden on the floor over that same span (plus-9.8). Beverley and Gordon have both been on the floor for almost 80 percent of those minutes. With those two on the floor without Harden, the Rockets have outscored teams by an incredible 14.5 points per 100 possessions.
While the return of Beverley has ignited Houston, it's been the play of Gordon that has transformed the Rockets on the offensive end. With Harden off the floor, Gordon is averaging more than 29 points per 36 minutes and has scored or assisted on more than 45 points per 36 (more than Nash in his first MVP campaign). Clearly, Gordon has emerged as a lethal option when Harden needs a spell. The challenge is working Gordon into a big enough role when he's on the floor alongside Harden. While it's great that he's dominating play in the 10 minutes a night Harden takes a breather, the Rockets would become even more dangerous if he became a legitimate creator while playing next to Harden.
Just twice this season has Gordon finished a game with a higher usage rate than Harden while the two have been on the floor: Nov. 17 against Portland and Dec. 10 against Dallas, two games the Rockets won by a combined 39 points. Sure, that shouldn't be the norm. Harden is amazing, but it would serve Houston well to develop Gordon into a true secondary threat so that when teams hone in on Harden, there's someone else who can keep the offense humming.
Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 5)
Big flaw: Backcourt depth
For top-heavy teams such as the Cavaliers, the quality of a fourth or fifth guard probably won't be the reason for winning or losing a playoff series if everyone is healthy. But the key word there is "if."
Even before J.R. Smith went down with a broken thumb that will sideline him for three months, the Cavaliers were already perilously thin in the backcourt. Kyrie Irving has played in only 60 games twice in his five seasons entering this year and never in more than 75. James, playing the role of point guard and facilitator more than ever, is coming off a December in which he ranked second in the NBA in MPG at 38.3. Banking on Irving's health is dangerous. Even more dangerous would be leaning on James more than necessary in the doldrums of January and February, especially after head coach Tyronn Lue has already said the plan is to pull back his minutes over the next two months.
In the absence of Smith, the team has been leaning more on DeAndre Liggins, opting to start him over Iman Shumpert. Though Shumpert is having a career year shooting the ball, he's probably not a viable option to run the offense for extended minutes. Richard Jefferson can still get up for big games (just ask Golden State) but probably isn't someone who should be playing more than 20 minutes a night. Ditto for Mike Dunleavy.
Solution: Test Jordan McRae and Kay Felder
Cleveland has a pair of young guards who have not gotten much run. While it's entirely possible that McRae and Felder simply aren't ready, the Cavaliers don't have the luxury of wasting roster spots on players who can't contribute. Both were standout performers in the summer league yet haven't received much of a look.
In the one game that McRae started before this week (Saturday against Charlotte with Irving out of the lineup) he delivered, scoring 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting in 31 minutes, 25 of which came while sharing the floor with James and Love. Before that, he played 10 or more minutes in just 10 games this season and shared the floor with James and Love for less than a minute. Felder had played 10 or more minutes in just eight games and has shared the floor with James and Love for a total of five minutes.
The only way for the Cavs to know what they have in McRae or Felder is to play them. With another six weeks before the trade deadline, there's ample time for Cleveland to find out if either of the young guards is capable of regular minutes or if a deadline deal needs to be made. With more Cavs missing time due to injury, McRae and Felder have averaged a combined 44 MPG over the last two games. That's a good start, but they shouldn't go back to bench-warming when the regular rotation returns.
The worst-case scenario for the Cavaliers would be to lean on their core too much over the next two months, only to find themselves limping into the playoffs anything short of full strength. Cleveland can and should risk some slippage now for help in June.