Several times a game this season, you'll catch a glimpse of peak Derrick Rose pushing the pace and putting defenders on their heels like few players can. When Rose is assertive with the ball he adds a unique, dynamic dimension to the New York Knicks' offense.
But is an aggressive Rose actually a good thing for the Knicks' playoff chances? Is he helping or hurting the play of young star Kristaps Porzingis?
And with Rose saying he wants to stay with the team the rest of his life, should New York commit to him long-term this offseason?
Let's take a look.
Finding the right style
After years of playing the what-if game with Rose and wondering just how much of his former self would come back following multiple injuries, we might finally have an answer. He has yet to miss a game, the furthest into a season he's gone without sitting out since 2009-10 (the year before he won the MVP). The Knicks have been better with him on the floor than him off it. With New York in early contention for a playoff spot, it appears as though Phil Jackson's gamble might actually be paying off.
Rose has to balance playing the role of facilitator alongside a pair of offensive marvels like Carmelo Anthony and Porzingis and calling his own number. That can be a tall order for a player used to being a ball dominant No. 1 option his entire life. There's a scene in "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" where Paul Rudd is teaching Jason Segel how to surf. It's full of mixed messages, with Rudd repeatedly saying "do less" and "do more." That's Rose in 2016. You don't want him to do nothing, because that defeats the purpose of having him in the first place. But you also don't want him trying to do too much.
In small doses, Rose puts pressure on defenses in ways nobody else on the roster can. The trouble early in the season has come when Rose's assertiveness as a scorer takes on too large a role. An early trend, and one that has carried over from his final season in Chicago, is that far too often Rose's biggest nights on the offensive end result in Knicks losses.
In each of Rose's five highest usage games of the season, the Knicks have lost. (This is using the NBA.com/stats version of usage rate that doesn't factor in assists, so we can measure Rose's effect when making playing for himself). The opposite holds true as well, as the Knicks have won each of Rose's four lowest usage games of the season.
Rose's usage rate this season is 23.7 in wins and 27.6 in losses. How significant is that difference? Of the more than 40 players this season with an overall usage rate of 25 or greater that have also played at least 400 minutes, only Devin Booker has a larger increase in usage when comparing wins to losses. Given that Booker is a 20-year-old shooting guard and the No. 1 option on his team, it makes sense that when losing he'd take on a larger burden trying to shoot the Suns back into games. For his own development, Phoenix probably even welcomes it.
However, for a point guard playing alongside one of the league's highest usage players in Carmelo Anthony and one of the league's brightest young stars in Kristaps Porzingis, it's a potentially troubling sign that Rose is clearly still adjusting to his evolving role in New York.
The usage rate is just one marker. Indicators of Rose looking for his own offense is significantly up in losses while his assists are slightly down.
Player tracking data from SportVU further illuminates the effects of his playmaking tendencies.
In wins this season, Rose is passing on 40 percent of his 9.2 drives per game. His 11.1 drives per game in losses would rank sixth in the NBA overall while his pass percentage of 19 percent would be the lowest of any of the top 30 players in total drives per game. Simply put, in Knicks losses this season, Rose has played like one of the most aggressive players in the NBA while simultaneously not getting others involved on those forays into the lane.
It's not just a half-court issue, either. While Rose still likes to push pace in the open floor, it's not nearly the effective play you might presume.
According to Synergy video tracking, Rose ranks 11th in the NBA in plays and ninth in shot attempts as a ball handler in transition. And although he is among the league leaders in volume, the same can't be said for his effectiveness. Rose's 0.81 points per play rates far below league average and of the 25 players with the most transition plays, only Jeff Teague has produced fewer points per play.
Good or bad for Porzingis?
A potential concern when Jackson traded for Rose would be how his ball dominant presence might impact the development of Porzingis as he continues his ascent from promising rookie to franchise cornerstone. So far this season, the Knicks are 5-2 when Porzingis has a higher usage rate than Rose. When Rose has the higher usage, they are 5-7.
That makes even more sense when considering how effective Porzingis is on offense, particularly in the half court. There are more than 90 players this season who have used at least 200 plays in the half court. Porzingis ranks 10th among them in points per play, trailing players like Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis.
In that same group, Rose ranks among the least efficient. Every inefficient Rose play, be it a half-court drive into the paint or a transition push, is one fewer potential play for Porzingis, who is already among the most brutally effective offensive players in the league.
With Rose's contract up at the end of the season, Jackson has a dilemma. Let's say the Knicks make the playoffs without any significant Rose injury issues. Does he sign up for several more years of a shoot-first point guard that isn't necessarily making his future franchise player better? Would the Knicks be better off signing a pass-first floor general that can help get the most out of Porzingis?
While it's not the fewest assists per game Rose has ever averaged, his assist rate of 23.2 is easily the lowest of his career. Of the 29 players with at least 10 starts this season at point guard, Rose ranks 27th in assist rate. In the 467 minutes he's shared the floor with Porzingis -- which is the most of any player on the Knicks -- he's assisted on 23 of his shots. That's one for every 20 minutes that they share the floor. By comparison, backup PG Brandon Jennings has assisted on 20 Porzingis buckets in just 247 minutes (roughly one every 12 minutes).
After big stars Steph Curry, Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry, there's (potentially) a pretty good crop of point guards in the 2017 free-agent class, including Jrue Holiday, Patty Mills, George Hill, Darren Collison and Jeff Teague. The 2017 draft could also be loaded with quality PGs, and if the Knicks start to slip they could use their pick to grab a talented prospect closer to Porzingis' timeline.
So can Rose continue his evolution and find that balance that optimizes the Knicks' potential and that of their 21-year-old franchise cornerstone? Depending on salary cap gymnastics, the answer to that question could ultimately decide Rose's long-term fate with the Knicks.