The summer of 2017 promises another loaded class of free agents, and while Golden State Warriors stars Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant aren't likely to leave their superteam, other All-Stars might be on the move.
Who will the top 30 free agents be?
Let's take an early look at who's going to be on the market in 2017 with the help of multiyear projections that use my SCHOENE projection system to forecast how free agents will perform in 2017-18 and 2018-19. I also factored in ESPN's real plus-minus to come up with a comprehensive estimate of how many wins above replacement player (WARP) players will provide over that span.
Here are the top 30 players by this method, including potential free agents with 2017-18 player options and fourth-year players who haven't yet signed extensions and will become restricted free agents if they don't agree to a new deal by today's deadline.
1. Stephen Curry
Golden State Warriors
Guard
Age: 28
Unrestricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 34.7 | 2015-16 RPM: 8.5 | 2015-16 WARP: 23.8
Curry has been one of the league's most underpaid players. He signed a four-year, $44 million extension in 2012, before making his All-Star debut. That will change in a big way next summer, when Curry will be the most coveted player on the market if he decides to entertain other offers.
2. Chris Paul
L.A. Clippers
Guard
Age: 31
Player option
Projected 2-Year WARP: 27.2 | 2015-16 RPM: 8.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 16.7
This figures to be the last big contract for Paul, who will turn 32 next May. Concerns about Paul's left knee, on which he had arthroscopic surgery in 2010, have abated, and Paul has managed to stay productive into his 30s. Based on the development of similar players, SCHOENE doesn't see that likely to change any time soon.
3. Kevin Durant
Golden State Warriors
Forward
Age: 27
Player option
Projected 2-Year WARP: 24.3 | 2015-16 RPM: 6.5 | 2015-16 WARP: 17.7
Realistically, if Curry is the No. 1 free agent on the market, his new teammate, Durant, is 1A. Durant's projection lags a bit behind Paul's because his RPM was weaker last season. However, Durant is younger and figures to have more years of prime production ahead of him, presuming no recurrence of the Jones fracture that marred his 2014-15 campaign.
4. Paul Millsap
Atlanta Hawks
Forward
Age: 31
Player option
Projected 2-Year WARP: 23.7 | 2015-16 RPM: 5.2 | 2015-16 WARP: 14.2
Millsap wisely got a player option on the third year of the contract he re-signed with the Hawks last summer. As a result, he's in position to cash in on the cap increase next summer. Millsap is coming off the best season of his career at age 31, and his skills figure to hold strong into his mid-30s.
5. Kyle Lowry
Toronto Raptors
Guard
Age: 30
Player option
Projected 2-Year WARP: 23.7 | 2015-16 RPM: 6.8 | 2015-16 WARP: 15.8
Quietly, Lowry finished in the NBA's top 10 in both RPM (seventh) and WARP (eighth) last season, powering the Raptors to the East's second-best record. He's 30, so it's not realistic to expect Lowry to keep playing quite that well, but he could be a difference-maker at the start of a new contract.
6. Rudy Gobert
Utah Jazz
Center
Age: 24
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 18.6 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.3 | 2015-16 WARP: 7.0
Update (10/31): Gobert agreed to a four-year, $102 million extension with the Jazz.
The top-ranked restricted free agent who could hit the market this summer, Gobert might not get extended because his cap hold would be a tiny $5.3 million under the current rules. (That could increase under a new collective bargaining agreement, as ESPN's Zach Lowe recently reported, though Gobert's hold would still be much smaller than his salary under an extension.)
So, like the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards did this summer with Andre Drummond and Bradley Beal, the Jazz could hold off on an extension and utilize cap space before going over the cap to re-sign Gobert.
7. Gordon Hayward
Utah Jazz
Forward
Age: 26
Player option
Projected 2-Year WARP: 16.3 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.9 | 2015-16 WARP: 8.1
During the summer of 2014, Hayward signed an offer sheet with Charlotte that the Jazz chose to match. That came at the cost of Hayward getting a 2017-18 player option, giving him the chance to hit the market next summer as an unrestricted free agent. Re-signing Hayward will be crucial to Utah's development into a challenger in the West.
8. Blake Griffin
L.A. Clippers
Forward
Age: 27
Player option
Projected 2-Year WARP: 16.1 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.1 | 2015-16 WARP: 3.9
When he's on the court, Griffin is a more productive player than some of the younger talents ahead of him in these rankings. However, the 62 games Griffin has missed the past two seasons help limit his projected playing time, and total value, going forward.
9. Victor Oladipo
Oklahoma City Thunder
Guard
Age: 24
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 14.0 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 5.6
Update (10/31): Oladipo agreed to a four-year, $84 million extension with the Thunder.
Still just 24, Oladipo emerged as a two-way RPM standout last season, ranking among the league's top 10 shooting guards. He has the chance to enhance his value with a strong performance on a bigger stage this season in Oklahoma City.
10. Nikola Mirotic
Chicago Bulls
Forward
Age: 25
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 12.3 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 5.4
It took Mirotic a year and a half to translate his accurate shooting from the FIBA 3-point line to the longer NBA version. After the 2016 All-Star break, Mirotic shot 44.5 percent from beyond the arc and averaged 14.1 points per game. While that's unlikely to continue, if Mirotic merely maintains last year's overall 39.0 percent 3-point shooting, he'll be a valuable stretch-4. Because Mirotic did not sign a rookie-scale contract coming over from Spain, he is not eligible for an extension and will be a restricted free agent.
11. Otto Porter Jr.
Washington Wizards
Forward
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 11.6 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.5 | 2015-16 WARP: 4.5
In his first year as a starter, Porter ranked 14th among small forwards in RPM. Just 23, he can establish himself as an average starter or better with another solid campaign. An extension is realistic for Porter because the Wizards are close to capped out next summer.
12. Jared Sullinger
Toronto Raptors
Forward
Age: 24
Unrestricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.8 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.8 | 2015-16 WARP: 5.2
Sullinger's impressive statistical projections didn't generate much interest this summer, and he settled for a one-year deal at the non-taxpayer midlevel exception to join the Raptors. Sullinger will try to parlay a better postseason into a more lucrative long-term deal next summer, but a stress reaction that required surgery will delay the start of his season and could scare off potential suitors.
13. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Detroit Pistons
Guard
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.7 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.4 | 2015-16 WARP: 1.2
Caldwell-Pope has yet to become a consistent 3-point threat, shooting just 30.9 percent last season, but his defense already makes him a valuable player. He ranked 10th among shooting guards in RPM. If Caldwell-Pope can become even a league-average shooter, he'll be a quality starter, and he has plenty of time. Detroit has little cap space and could still extend Caldwell-Pope.
14. Patrick Patterson
Toronto Raptors
Forward
Age: 27
Unrestricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.6 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.0 | 2015-16 WARP: 2.1
Patterson's floor spacing was a big reason the Raptors tended to play their best basketball with the second unit on the floor last season. He made a career-high 106 3-pointers, and unlike many stretch big men Patterson isn't a liability on defense.
15. Jrue Holiday
New Orleans Pelicans
Guard
Age: 26
Unrestricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.5 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 6.3
Likewise, the Pelicans were at their best with Holiday on the court in 2015-16, getting outscored by just 0.3 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats. When Holiday sat, they got crushed by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. While his history of tibia stress injuries is a concern, Holiday, 26, will be one of the younger unrestricted free agents on the market and should cash in.
16. Gorgui Dieng
Minnesota Timberwolves
Center
Age: 26
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.4 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 6.2
Update (10/31): Dieng agreed to a four-year, $64 million extension with the Timberwolves.
In fact, Holiday is a few months younger than Dieng, who's just coming to the end of his rookie contract. Dieng is yet another potential restricted free agent with a small cap hold ($5.9 million), making an extension unlikely. That's for the best, because the Timberwolves need to make sure he's the right fit next to Karl-Anthony Towns long term.
17. Cody Zeller
Charlotte Hornets
Center
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.2 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.0 | 2015-16 WARP: 2.8
Update (10/31): Zeller agreed to a four-year, $56 million extension with the Hornets.
An RPM favorite, Zeller demonstrated last year he can protect the rim well enough to anchor a top-10 defense as a starting center. In that role, his mobility and range are pluses. The Hornets are unlikely to have cap space, and Zeller's cap hold would be $13.3 million, so expect extension talks.
18. Steven Adams
Oklahoma City Thunder
Center
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.0 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.4 | 2015-16 WARP: 3.4
Update (10/31): Adams is expected to agree to an extension with the Thunder before the deadline.
Because Adams has a low usage rate and blocks few shots, his WARP was limited last season. RPM already views him as an average starting center, and Adams looked every bit the part in the playoffs at age 22 (he turned 23 last month). I'd expect him to get the max or something close to it.
19. Kelly Olynyk
Boston Celtics
Forward
Age: 25
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.0 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.8 | 2015-16 WARP: 3.8
The second-most accurate 3-point shooting 7-footer (minimum 400 attempts) in NBA history behind a certain German who plays for the Dallas Mavericks, per Basketball-Reference.com, Olynyk shot 40.5 percent from beyond the arc last year. He has a chance to emerge as a starter next to Al Horford this season before hitting restricted free agency, though he's still yet to return from offseason shoulder surgery.
20. Serge Ibaka
Orlando Magic
Forward
Age: 26
Unrestricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 9.2 | 2015-16 RPM: 0.9 | 2015-16 WARP: 2.4
Though he's not yet 27, Ibaka's production has been trending in the wrong direction the past two seasons. After a trade to the Magic, 2016-17 will tell us whether his limited role in the Thunder's offense is to blame or if Ibaka's best years are truly behind him.
21. Patty Mills
San Antonio Spurs
Guard
Age: 28
Unrestricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 8.8 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 4.4
Long a favorite of advanced stats, Mills had to settle for a bargain three-year, $13 million contract in the summer of 2014 because he needed shoulder surgery after the NBA Finals. Fresh off an impressive Olympics, Mills might be able to command a better deal if he starts eating into the playing time of the aging Tony Parker.
22. Greg Monroe
Milwaukee Bucks
Center
Age: 26
Player option
Projected 2-Year WARP: 8.2 | 2015-16 RPM: 0.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 9.8
After several teams battled for the right to pay him the max last summer, a competition won by the Bucks, Monroe might struggle to generate that sort of interest if he opts out of the third year of his contract. Monroe's role as scapegoat for Milwaukee's regression is somewhat unfair, but it does reflect that his skills don't translate to every situation. Fortunately for Monroe, there are few quality centers on the unrestricted market.
Still, Lowe has reported that the Bucks are preparing for the possibility that Monroe picks up his $17.9 million 2017-18 option in lieu of free agency.
23. Danilo Gallinari
Denver Nuggets
Forward
Age: 28
Player option
Projected 2-Year WARP: 8.1 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 5.5
Injuries are a big reason Gallinari's projection is surprisingly modest; he's pegged to miss an average of 32 games per year based on his past lost playing time. When he's on the court, Gallinari is consistently productive, and I'd expect him to command max money.
24. Pau Gasol
San Antonio Spurs
Center
Age: 36
Player option
Projected 2-Year WARP: 7.9 | 2015-16 RPM: 3.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 10.8
Well into his 30s, Gasol shows no sign of decline in his ability to score efficiently. However, his limited rim protection makes Gasol a tough fit for many teams. There might not be many teams willing and able to pay him more than his $16.2 million player option.
25. Mason Plumlee
Portland Trail Blazers
Center
Age: 26
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 7.3 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.4 | 2015-16 WARP: 5.0
Plumlee is in an interesting spot after the Blazers spent lavishly to retain their own free agents and add Festus Ezeli and Evan Turner this summer. Already in the luxury tax for 2017-18, Portland might not want to pay market rate for Plumlee if either Ezeli or Meyers Leonard proves capable of replacing him in the center rotation. They haven't yet.
26. George Hill
Utah Jazz
Guard
Age: 30
Unrestricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 7.1 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.0 | 2015-16 WARP: 3.9
Hill leads a trio of point guards who have been on the Indiana Pacers who round out the list. Of those three, including replacement Jeff Teague, Hill rated the best by RPM last season thanks to his defense. At the same time, Hill is the oldest of the group, and a large four-year deal for him could be risky.
27. Darren Collison
Sacramento Kings
Guard
Age: 29
Unrestricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 6.5 | 2015-16 RPM: minus-0.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 2.9
After coming off the bench behind Rajon Rondo last year, Collison will move back into a starting job just in time for his contract year. He has consistently averaged around 16 points and five to six assists per 36 minutes with above-average efficiency.
28. Jeff Teague
Indiana Pacers
Guard
Age: 28
Unrestricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 6.3 | 2015-16 RPM: minus-0.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 4.6
While Teague, the new Pacers point guard, is slightly younger than his predecessors who rate ahead of him, similar players have tended to decline in their late 20s, so Teague is projected for similar decline early in his next contract.
29. Amir Johnson
Boston Celtics
Center
Age: 29
Unrestricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 6.3 | 2015-16 RPM: plus-2.5 | 2015-16 WARP: 4.3
Though Johnson won't turn 30 until May, this is the 12th NBA season for the last player drafted out of high school before the age limit went into place, and it shows. Johnson's wear and tear was a key reason he had to settle for a two-year, $24 million deal with the Celtics in the summer of 2015 that wasn't fully guaranteed.
But thanks to his toughness and mobility, the RPM favorite has proven a good value at that price.
30. Cristiano Felicio
Chicago Bulls
Center
Age: 24
Restricted
Projected 2-Year WARP: 6.2 | 2015-16 RPM: plus-0.8 | 2015-16 WARP: 0.9
In the limited minutes he's played since making the Bulls' roster as an undrafted free agent, Felicio has been productive, averaging 12.0 points, 11.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per 36 minutes.
Felicio is also mobile for his size and rated above-average by RPM as a rookie, suggesting his potential to develop into a key part of a center rotation.