On Monday, the Utah Jazz agreed to a four-year extension for center Rudy Gobert in a deal worth $102 million, according to ESPN's Marc Stein and Marc Spears of the Undefeated.
What does Gobert's big contract extension mean for Utah's future? Can the Jazz keep the team together and become contenders?
Valuing Gobert
Like several of the other top players eligible for rookie extensions, Gobert signed for nearly the maximum amount possible on a four-year extension.
Before training camp, Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo signed a four-year, $100 million deal. Also on Monday, the Oklahoma City Thunder and center Steven Adams were closing in an extension for an identical amount, per Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical.
Gobert's extension will pay him $2 million more than Antetokounmpo and Adams, giving him the second-largest extension among 2013 first-round picks, after Portland Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum -- the only one to get a contract equivalent to the estimated maximum salary ($106 million over four years) for players with four years of experience .
Still, the four players will all make close to the same money over the next four years, raising the intriguing question of how they're likely to rank over that time.
Antetokounmpo has the most upside. The youngest of these players at age 22, he played at an All-Star level in the second half of last season and is likely to reach that level for good within the next season or two.
After Antetokounmpo, you could make a case for any of the remaining three players, and I'd give Gobert the nod over McCollum.
Because of his incredible defensive value, Gobert has the highest floor. Even if he doesn't improve at all, Gobert is already a credible starting center and a perennial candidate for the NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award. That's why he actually ranked first among potential restricted free agents in my 2017 free agent projections, just ahead of Antetokounmpo.
It's early, but so far this season Gobert has shown the potential to be something more than what he has been. In 2015-16, his first full year as a starter, Gobert's numbers were virtually the same as in 2014-15, when he ascended to a starting role, after Enes Kanter was traded at the deadline. While Gobert did deal with a sprained MCL in the 2015-16 campaign that sidelined him throughout December and into January, his numbers were similar before and after the injury, which made me wonder whether he already had come close to tapping out his offensive skills.
That's why it has been encouraging to watch Gobert play a more active role in the Utah offense through the Jazz's first three games this season. His usage rate -- steadily around 14 percent of the team's plays while on the court the past three seasons -- is up to 16.2 percent. Gobert's assist rate is up too, though he also is turning the ball over more frequently.
Utah doesn't need Gobert to become a consistent post-up threat. As long as he can make opponents pay for putting smaller defenders on him and force them to respect him away from the basket, Gobert will be a top-40 player in the NBA -- and maybe better than that.
Jazz committing to core over free agency
The biggest obstacle to a Gobert extension was his low cap hold had he become a restricted free agent next summer. As the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards did with Andre Drummond and Bradley Beal over the summer, Utah could have waited to re-sign Gobert and had far more cap flexibility.
Counting Gobert's $5.3 million cap hold and Gordon Hayward's cap hold (assuming he opts for free agency), the Jazz could have cleared near-max cap space by renouncing their other free agents and waiving Boris Diaw, whose contract is non-guaranteed through July 15.
And though the new NBA collective bargaining agreement might increase the cap holds for players such as Gobert coming off their rookie contracts, as reported by ESPN's Zach Lowe, the difference would be marginal (Gobert's cap hold would increase to $6.4 million in that scenario).
At the same time, had Utah used all that cap space, re-signed Hayward for something near his maximum salary and then signed Gobert to the same extension, the Jazz would have been pushing the luxury tax or in it. That's not tenable for a small-market team, particularly one with another key player -- forward Derrick Favors -- due to get a big raise in free agency the following summer.
As things now stand, Utah is more likely to stay over the cap if Hayward returns, keeping cap holds on the books for both Hayward and starting point guard George Hill. Diaw's non-guaranteed contract ensures the Jazz could bring back their starting five and avoid the tax in 2017-18. Beyond that, the expiration of Joe Johnson's contract would give Utah some flexibility to re-sign Favors at a higher salary.
Another possibility for the Jazz is renegotiating and extending Favors' contract now, taking advantage of the $13.6 million in cap space the team currently boasts. By increasing Favors' salary from his current $11 million to at or near his $22 million maximum salary, Utah could lock him in to a long-term extension that would cost less than the maximum Favors could earn when he hits free agency in the summer of 2018. That, in turn, would make it more feasible for the Jazz to keep their core intact.
For a young team that hasn't yet broken through to even reach the playoffs, Utah must navigate a surprisingly tricky financial path as its key players approach free agency over the next few years. Still, as long as players want to stay with the Jazz, they should be able to find a way to let this group compete and potentially contend for years to come.