How will Al Horford, Isaiah Thomas, Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics do in 2016-17?
Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.
Projected starters
Isaiah Thomas
Position: Guard
Experience: 5 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Score-first point guard who succeeds despite small stature
+ Pick-and-roll maestro
+ Competes defensively but limited by size
Analysis
Thomas has made a career of proving the doubters wrong, and last season the 60th and final pick of the 2011 draft became an All-Star by maintaining his strong per-minute production after the 2015 trade deadline in a starting role.
On a Celtics team with few creators, Thomas' ability to make plays out of the pick-and-roll was invaluable. He pushed his usage rate to a career-high 29.6 percent, far higher than his Hall of Fame near-namesake ever managed (Isiah Thomas topped out at a 27 percent usage rate) without sacrificing much efficiency. Thomas is a good enough shooter off the dribble to keep opponents from going under screens (his 59 unassisted 3-pointers ranked 10th in the NBA, per Basketball-Reference.com) and his ability to finish with either hands from a variety of angles makes Thomas an above-average finisher at 5-foot-9.
Alas, Boston might have been a little too reliant on Thomas' creation in the playoffs, when he averaged 24.3 points per game but saw his efficiency plummet by virtue of 28.3 percent 3-point shooting. The addition of Al Horford should take some of the offensive load off Thomas' plate and allow him to do more playmaking. Already, Thomas' 6.9 assists per 36 minutes were a career high.
While he's found workarounds for his size around the basket, it does still limit Thomas defensively, where he does his best but can't always contest shots or passes. The Celtics were able to hide Thomas because Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart can both defend point guards, but as Boston advances deeper in the playoffs that may become more difficult.
Avery Bradley
Position: Guard
Experience: 6 years
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Ace defender against guards of all kinds
+ Tends to shoot too many long 2-pointers
+ Most effective off the ball but can handle it as well
Analysis
The Celtics' upset win over the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena on April 1 -- Golden State's first home loss in more than a year -- was a showcase for Bradley's defense. He defended both Warriors guards, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, helping hold the latter to 15 points on 6-of-16 shooting. The performance helped solidify Bradley's first appearance on the NBA's All-Defensive First Team, having previously earned second team honors in 2012-13.
Given that reputation, it's tough to understand Bradley rating as a below-average defender (minus-1.2 points per 100 possessions) by ESPN's real plus-minus last season. In part, Bradley's defensive contributions are tough to quantify in the box score, since he's a poor rebounder and rarely blocks shots. Boston also defended better with Bradley on the bench, which is probably something of a fluke. In past years, he's rated as a good guard defender by RPM though not the elite one his reputation would suggest, which probably relates to the fact that one-on-one defense tends to be overrated vis-à-vis help defense.
Surprisingly, the Celtics probably missed Bradley more on offense when he suffered a series-ending hamstring injury in Game 1 of their playoff matchup with the Atlanta Hawks. Marcus Smart replaced Bradley's defense but was a big drop-off as an outside shooter. Though Bradley still tends to take too many jumpers just inside the arc, he's developed into a legitimate 3-point threat (36.4 percent last season) whom opponents must respect. Bradley isn't a point guard but can supply help as a secondary ball handler.
Jae Crowder
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Energetic role player with near-star value
+ Adequate outside shooter who excels around the basket
+ Terrific one-on-one defender who can guard bigger opponents
Analysis
There's a case to be made that Crowder was Boston's most important player last season. When Crowder went down with a sprained ankle in March, the Celtics went 4-4 without him, including two of their three biggest losses of the season. (Though, oddly, Boston beat the Warriors at Oracle Arena with Crowder sitting out.) When Crowder was on the court, he was a revelation during the first season of a five-year, $35 million contract that makes him one of the league's biggest bargains.
A starter from day one for the first time in his career, Crowder broke through in large part because of his development as an outside shooter. No, he won't be confused with Steph Curry, but Crowder made a career-high 122 3s at a 33.6 percent clip -- a big upgrade from the 28.2 percent he shot after joining the Celtics in 2014-15. Crowder is better around the basket, where he can score around and through bigger opponents. Per Basketball-Reference.com, only teammate Avery Bradley (70.4 percent) shot better inside 3 feet than Crowder (67.7 percent) among players 6-foot-6 and shorter.
Crowder's greater value is at the defensive end, where he emerged as a premier stopper against combo forwards like Carmelo Anthony. Crowder has the strength to keep such opponents from overpowering him down low, the mobility to stay with them on the perimeter and exceptionally quick hands. Crowder finished fifth among forwards in all-defensive voting, one point behind Paul George for a spot on the second team.
Al Horford
Position: Forward
Experience: 9 years
Age: 30
Scouting report
+ Skilled big man who has added 3-point range
+ Excels in pick-and-pop game
+ Intuitive defender with mobility to guard on perimeter
Analysis
Aside from a certain former MVP, Horford was the prize of last summer's free agency. When the Atlanta Hawks weren't willing to fully guarantee a fifth year at the max salary, Horford chose to leave the only team he's ever played for and become the biggest catch in the history of Celtics free agency. His versatility should allow Horford to fit seamlessly into the Boston frontcourt.
Last season saw Horford take his game beyond the arc. He'd matched his previous career total of 20 3-pointers by Thanksgiving and finished with 88, seventh-most among players 6-foot-10 and taller, at a near-average 34.4 percent clip. Specifically, Horford was able to shoot the 3 from the top of the key, valuable because it allowed him to pick-and-pop beyond the arc. His 340 points as a roll man ranked third in the league, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. While Horford has a slow release, he is able to put the ball on the ground and make a play when opponents close out too hard.
As much as Horford will help offensively, he's perhaps an even bigger defensive upgrade for the Celtics. Predecessor Jared Sullinger was unable to stay on the court against the Atlanta frontcourt of Horford and Paul Millsap. Now, Horford and incumbent center Amir Johnson can interchange defensively depending on matchups and ensure Boston will have a rim protector near the basket at all times. Horford isn't a big leaper, but he's got good timing as a shot-blocker and rarely fouls because he doesn't leave his feet much. He will be a downgrade from Sullinger on the defensive glass, perhaps the biggest concern for the Celtics, who already ranked 26th in defensive rebound percentage last season.
Amir Johnson
Position: Center
Experience: 11 years
Age: 29
Scouting report
+ Versatile veteran with ability to defend either frontcourt position
+ High-percentage finisher with occasional 3-point range
+ Capable rim protector who defends pick-and-roll well
Analysis
It took Johnson all of four games to find his way to Boston's starting lineup after joining the team as a free agent in the summer of 2015, and he stayed there for a career-high 76 starts. Johnson's ability to defend either frontcourt position was key to playing alongside Jared Sullinger and will now allow him to interchange with newcomer Al Horford, giving Brad Stevens plenty of defensive options if Johnson remains the starter.
Though just 6-foot-9, Johnson blocks shots at an average rate for a center and was among the league's top 20 players in opponent shooting percentage inside five feet, per SportVU tracking data on NBA.com/Stats. Yet Stevens typically put Johnson on the opposition's power forward because of his defensive mobility on the perimeter and ability to defend the pick-and-roll. That occasionally left the Celtics short of rim protection in the paint, which wouldn't be an issue with Horford as the other big man.
When he plays with Horford, opponents will surely defend Johnson as a center. While he'll knock down a 3-pointer every couple of weeks (10 last season, after 39 his last two years in Toronto), Johnson is more of a threat finishing off the pick-and-roll or dump-off passes around the basket. He shot 71.2 percent inside 3 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com, right near his career mark of 70.6 percent. Johnson developed good pick-and-roll chemistry with Isaiah Thomas and also created easy opportunities at times by running the floor hard in transition.
Reserves
Marcus Smart
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
Age: 22
Scouting report
+ Hyperaggressive defender who can lock up bigger opponents
+ Inaccurate 3-point shooter who has yet to grow into ballhandling threat
+ Has unfortunate tendency to exaggerate contact
Analysis
During 2015-16, Smart had one of the greatest poor-shooting seasons in NBA history, and I'm not sure whether that's damning with faint praise. By virtue of his inaccurate 3-point shooting, Smart shot 34.8 percent from the field, worst in the league for anyone with more than 400 shot attempts. Yet Smart still averaged 27-plus minutes per game for a playoff team and rated at league average by ESPN's real plus-minus.
The key is Smart's outstanding defense. RPM has rated him a top-10 point guard in defensive impact each of his first two seasons. At a listed 6-foot-4, Smart is so strong and so tough that the Celtics regularly use him to defend wings -- and even during one memorable playoff game, to try to cool off Atlanta power forward Paul Millsap. Smart is also an excellent ball hawk who moves his feet well enough to defend point guards when necessary. The only problem with Smart's defense is that after excising the worst flopping from his game as a rookie, he grew comfortable enough in Year 2 to try to sell calls in embarrassingly egregious fashion.
Smart's development has not been nearly as rapid on offense. As during his rookie season, he spent most of last year playing off the ball with Evan Turner running the offense. And after shooting a respectable 33.5 percent from 3-point range as a rookie, Smart's 25.3 percent accuracy last season was the worst ever for a player with at least 200 attempts, per Basketball-Reference.com. (Smart displaced former Celtic Antoine Walker at the bottom of that list, but has never lamented the absence of a 4-point line.)
With Turner in Portland, Smart may get turned loose with the ball in his hands this season. If so, he'll have to show more ability to get to the basket off the dribble. My SCHOENE projection system remains bullish about Smart's offensive development, comparing him to late bloomers like Reggie Jackson. However, progress in Year 3 is probably necessary for Smart's hopes of becoming more than just a specialist.
Kelly Olynyk
Position: Forward
Experience: 3 years
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Combines skills of a perimeter player with size of a big man
+ Dangerous 3-point shooter with high gravity
+ Mobile defender who struggles against more physical opponents
Analysis
In Year 3, Olynyk translated shooting potential into shooting production, emerging as a unique weapon off the bench. A guard before a growth spurt in high school, Olynyk still moves and shoots like a perimeter player despite standing an even 7-feet. After shooting around league average from downtown his first two seasons, Olynyk broke through with 40.5 percent 3-point accuracy in 2015-16, becoming the sixth 7-footer in NBA history to crack that mark on at least 100 attempts according to Basketball-Reference.com. Defenders now have to stay home on Olynyk, opening the floor for teammates.
Olynyk's perimeter background also shows up in terms of ballhandling. He's comfortable putting the ball on the ground and can even score off the dribble from midrange with a floater or pull-ups. As Olynyk grows more feared as a shooter, he's capable of beating hard closeouts with a pump fake and drive.
Defensively, well, Olynyk is also something of a tall guard. His relatively small wingspan (6-foot-9 and three-quarters, making him one of a handful of players in the league with smaller wingspans than height without shoes) also works against him. Olynyk isn't a shot-blocking threat whatsoever and is better suited to defending power forwards. Physical players can give him trouble in the post, but Olynyk is capable of chasing smaller players around on the perimeter.
After the season, Olynyk underwent surgery to fix a sprained shoulder that sidelined him for a month after the All-Star break. He's expected back in time for training camp and could push for a starting job alongside Horford.
Jonas Jerebko
Position: Forward
Experience: 6 years
Age: 29
Scouting report
+ Athletic big man with the skills of a small forward
+ Prolific, accurate 3-point shooter
+ Capable of defending smaller players
Analysis
Though Jerebko is still capable of playing on the wing after entering the league as a combo forward, his greatest success since joining the Celtics at the 2015 trade deadline has come as a big man. There, Jerebko's skills and mobility make him a weapon.
Over the last three seasons, Jerebko has established himself as a consistent 40 percent 3-point shooter. He fell a hair shy of that mark last year, shooting 39.8 percent beyond the arc. That skill is more valuable against big men, and when opponents try to put a smaller defender on him, Jerebko is capable of taking them to the post. His 2-point percentage slipped to a career low 42.1 percent last season, but that was mostly because of a fluky inability to finish. A 65 percent-plus shooter inside 3 feet the previous two years, Jerebko shot a career-low 53.1 percent from that range in 2015-16, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Having Jerebko at power forward has also been a great fit defensively when Boston switches pick-and-rolls. His background as a wing defender enables Jerebko to stay in front of smaller opponents, who struggle to break him down. He's also a strong pick-and-roll defender. Jerebko has more trouble against bigger foes inside, and he's only adequate for a power forward on the defensive glass.
Gerald Green
Position: Forward
Experience: 9 years
Age: 30
Scouting report
+ Talented but erratic wing who has emerged as role player
+ Uber-confident 3-point shooter with tendency to take bad shots
+ Grew more attentive defensively with Miami Heat
Analysis
Eleven years after he was drafted out of high school by the Celtics, Green's career came full circle when he returned to Boston this summer as a free agent. Green has subsequently played for seven other NBA teams, not counting two more overseas and one in the D-League, bouncing from home to home as teams are intrigued by his talent but soon frustrated by his shortcomings.
Green's lone season in Miami was marred by a frightening incident where he was hospitalized after reportedly punching a man and behaving erratically in the lobby of the building where he was staying. After serving a two-game suspension, Green actually started 14 games, and the Heat coaching staff praised his improved focus at the defensive end -- never a strong suit.
Inability to make shots ultimately did Green in with Miami. He shot 32.3 percent beyond the arc and was even worse (4-of-14, 28.6 percent) in the playoffs. When Green shoots near 40 percent from downtown, as he did with the Brooklyn Nets in 2011-12 and the Phoenix Suns in 2013-14, he's a valuable reserve thanks to above-average efficiency. When those shots don't go down, Green is an inefficient scorer because of his otherwise poor shot selection. If that's the case this season, the Celtics have enough wing alternatives that Green won't play much or might be released altogether despite a fully guaranteed contract.
Jaylen Brown
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 19
Scouting report
+ Power wing at his most dangerous in the open court
+ Unreliable 3-point shooter with tendency to force offense
+ Has all the physical tools to become great defensively
Analysis
Few draft picks in recent history have been as polarizing as Brown, who rated poorly by most statistical projections based on his lone season at California. The stats-only version of my WARP projections pegged Brown as a below-replacement NBA player based on his inefficient scoring, and outside the top 100 prospects in the draft. Because of his combination of quickness and power, Brown still had plenty of believers in the scouting community, and Boston took him No. 3 overall based on that upside.
In part, the discrepancy between Brown's stats and how scouts view him can be explained by playing alongside two traditional big men at Cal. He shot 54.6 percent on 2-point attempts when at power forward as compared to 38.7 percent at small forward, according to research by college analyst Ken Pomeroy, in large part because he settled for more long 2-pointers when on the wing.
While that might not seem to bode well since Brown will likely play primarily at small forward as a pro, the better spacing of the NBA game should provide him those opportunities to play one-on-one and get to the free throw line (he attempted 65 in six summer league games) instead of driving into traffic, where Brown tends to force the action and picked up frequent charges.
Whether Brown lives up to the hype or plays down to the fears will also depend on his defensive productivity. He's got an ideal frame for a wing defender who can slide down and the strength to defend some power forwards, a la Jae Crowder. But Brown's defensive intensity will have to improve to use those tools.
Terry Rozier
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
Age: 22
Scouting report
+ Athletic, undersized combo guard learning to play the point
+ Dominated in summer league with ability to get to basket
+ Relentless defender who is a major presence on the glass
Analysis
Because of Boston's deep backcourt, Rozier played sparingly as a rookie until the playoffs, when he was unexpectedly asked to play 20 minutes a night after Avery Bradley went down with a hamstring injury. He showed some flashes against the Hawks, though he was understandably stretched by that role. Rozier was much more effective in summer league, where he was one of the best veteran players in action.
The lingering unanswered question about Rozier's game is whether he can be a full-time point guard, which he'll probably have to do to get on the court at a listed 6-foot-2. Though he showed the ability to get to the basket off the dribble this summer, reviews on Rozier's playmaking were still mixed; he averaged just 3.5 assists per game to go along with his 20 points. On the plus side, Rozier has shown enough 3-point range to possibly play off the ball alongside a teammate like Avery Bradley who can run the offense and defend shooting guards.
If Rozier develops enough as a point guard to stay on the court, he'll be a plus defender. He's relentless in pressuring opposing ball handlers and averaged 2.0 steals per 36 minutes in the D-League. For his size, Rozier is an incredible rebounder who uses his 38-inch vertical to rebound over bigger foes. In limited action, Rozier's rebound rate was better than the league average for all players, let alone point guards.
Tyler Zeller
Position: Center
Experience: 4 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Nimble 7-footer who runs the court well
+ Finishes well off pick-and-roll
+ Not a shot-blocker or defensive presence in paint
Analysis
The odd man out in the Celtics' frontcourt rotation, Zeller played just 710 minutes a year after starting 59 games in the middle. The timing couldn't have been worse for the restricted free agent, and Zeller ended up settling for a two-year, $16 million deal with the second season non-guaranteed. Barring injuries, his role doesn't figure to be any larger this year.
Zeller has some solid skills for a 7-footer. He runs the floor like a gazelle and generates easy opportunities in transition with his speed. Zeller also catches the ball well on the run, which makes him an effective finisher in the pick-and-roll. He shot 54.9 percent on 2-point attempts in 2014-15 before slipping to 47.6 percent last year, possibly a product of playing with weaker pick-and-roll ball handlers on the second unit. Zeller does worse when asked to do anything but shoot off the pick-and-roll; he's not comfortable putting the ball on the ground or finding teammates.
Ultimately, Zeller's inability to protect the rim cost him playing time last season. Of the 33 7-footers who played at least 500 minutes last season, Zeller's block percentage ranked 24th. He is a willing charge-taker in the paint, but ideally should be paired with a power forward who can help supply rim protection.
Jordan Mickey
Position: Center
Experience: 1 year
Age: 22
Scouting report
+ Capable D-League scorer who must show he can translate skills to NBA
+ Fine defensive rebounder
+ Best shot-blocker on the Celtics
Analysis
As a rookie second-round pick, Mickey was fourth on the depth chart at center in Boston, so he spent much of his season with the Celtics' D-League affiliate in Maine. Mickey was outstanding there, averaging 17.4 points, 10.3 rebounds and a league-leading 4.4 blocks per game. Alas, the arrival of Al Horford and return of Tyler Zeller make it unlikely Mickey will get to translate those skills in Boston any time soon.
Mickey plays much bigger defensively than his listed 6-foot-8. His wingspan is larger than 7-foot-3 -- five inches longer than teammate Kelly Olynyk, who's four inches taller. As a result, Mickey has the potential to be one of the NBA's better shot-blockers. Based on his translated D-League stats, his projected block rate ranks in the league's top 10 for 2016-17. And Mickey doesn't sacrifice defensive rebounds in pursuit of blocks.
At the other end, Mickey may eventually become the rare rim protector who can also shoot 3s. He made seven triples in 20 attempts at the D-League level and is a legitimate threat to pick-and-pop for long 2-pointers. In his tiny sample of NBA minutes, Mickey shot just 36.4 percent from the field, so it remains to be seen whether his D-League scoring prowess can carry over in the NBA.
R.J. Hunter
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
Age: 22
Scouting report
+ College sharpshooter who didn't make shots as NBA rookie
+ Showed impressive feel for the game during strong preseason
+ Has added strength in effort to compete defensively
Analysis
The first step to Hunter breaking into the Celtics' rotation is to start providing the advertised outside shooting. Hunter shot just 30.2 percent on 63 3-point attempts as a rookie, and was slightly worse (29.6 percent) in eight D-League appearances. So it was encouraging to see him shoot 47.2 percent on 3s during five summer-league games.
If and when Hunter starts knocking down open catch-and-shoot opportunities, he can also provide a bit more offensively. During the preseason, Hunter opened eyes with his passing and general ability to read the court. He can get in trouble trying to do too much off the dribble, and doesn't shoot well off the dribble -- particularly going left because he gathers on the right side of his body.
Teams attacked Hunter defensively as a rookie, posting him up or putting him in isolations. He's added strength to his upper body and now stands a better chance of holding up in one-on-one defense. This is an important season for Hunter to establish himself, since he'll be 23 in October and there's more young talent coming from Boston's cache of draft picks.
Demetrius Jackson
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 21
Scouting report
+ Possible first-round pick snapped up by the Celtics in Round 2
+ Still-developing point guard skills/mindset
+ Physical player who must commit to defending
Analysis
Pegged to go late in the first round or early in the second, Jackson was unexpectedly still on the board when Boston made its fourth pick of the night at No. 45 overall. The Celtics snapped up the Notre Dame product and signed him to a four-year, $5.5 million deal that guarantees his entire $1.45 million salary for this season -- the highest rookie salary ever for a second-round pick who signed immediately after the draft.
Jackson certainly doesn't fill an immediate need for Boston. In broad strokes, he's similar to 2015 first-round pick Terry Rozier. Jackson's a better outside shooter -- he shot better than 40 percent from 3-point range as a freshman and sophomore before slipping to 33.1 percent in his third and final college season -- but also a work in progress as a playmaker after playing his first two years alongside Jerian Grant. A stout 6-foot-1, Jackson can become a plus defender at point guard in time. For now, he seems ticketed for the D-League.
James Young
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
Age: 21
Scouting report
+ Former first-round pick in danger of getting caught in roster crunch
+ Capable spot-up shooter who contributes little else
+ Lacks ballhandling to play shooting guard or size to play small forward
Analysis
In August, Young turned 21; he's nearly a full year younger than Jackson. Yet as Young enters his third NBA season, the clock is already ticking on his development. The Celtics face a tough decision on the fourth-year option on his rookie contract and may end up moving Young with 16 players under guaranteed contract and just 15 roster spots.
While Young has yet to shoot 3s accurately during NBA games (he's shot 25 percent on 92 attempts the last two seasons), he shot a robust 43.4 percent during summer-league option. The problem is Young is probably going to have to do something else to stay on the court in the NBA. He's a tweener on the wing: not good enough as a ball handler or passer to play the 2 on offense or big enough to defend small forwards. So Young is going to have to show improvement, probably by the end of training camp, to avoid an uncertain future.
Ben Bentil
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 21
Scouting report
+ Skilled college big man who slipped to late second round
+ Prefers to shoot first and ask questions later
+ Indifferent defender who must improve intensity
Analysis
The interior complement to Kris Dunn at Providence, Bentil declared for the draft after averaging 21.1 points per game as a sophomore. Considered likely to go early in the second round, Bentil instead went 51st overall to the Celtics, who signed him to a partially guaranteed three-year contract. With 16 players on guaranteed contracts, Bentil is probably ticketed for Boston's D-League affiliate in Maine.
During summer league, Bentil came in the game ready to fire. Though Bentil is a capable outside shooter with NBA 3-point range, his robust shot selection resulted in 2-of-11 accuracy from beyond the arc over the summer. He'll have to find a happier medium between shooting and moving the ball. Bentil also struggled defensively, the biggest reason such a talented offensive player was available deep in the second round. Squint hard and you might see a smaller version of Marreese Speights.
Marcus Georges-Hunt
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 22
Scouting report
+ Good size for a shooting guard with solid ballhandling skills
+ Has defensive potential thanks to 6-foot-9 wingspan
Analysis
Undrafted out of Georgia Tech, Georges-Hunt played sparingly for the Brooklyn Nets' summer squad before signing with Boston. He's almost certain to land with the Celtics' D-League affiliate, where he'll have to prove he can make the NBA 3-pointer on a consistent basis to get to the league.